We are breaking down the series in segments as we prepare for the upcoming Battle of Ontario playoff matchup.
We started with the matchups at five-on-five, where the majority of the game is played.
If we’re honest, though, this era of Leafs playoff hockey has been largely defined by completely inept special teams. Since they first made the playoffs back in 2017, their power play has clicked at a cumulative rate of 16.9 percent, while their shorthanded units have killed off just 74.3 percent of penalties. For reference, this season, that power play percentage would rank 28th in the NHL, while the penalty kill percentage would rank 26th. In other words, they have been absolutely crushed at both ends when up or down a man.
At a minimum, the Leafs will need at least one unit to perform well if they hope to have any postseason success.
In the first round, the Leafs drew a Senators team that finished 11th in power-play percentage and 19th in penalty-kill percentage. The Leafs finished tied for eighth in PP percentage and 17th in PK percentage.
Let’s look at the special-teams matchups one by one.
The Leafs power play vs. the Senators penalty kill
After a slow start to the season filled with injuries and all sorts of trials, Marc Savard and the Leafs’ top players got it together, and the first unit started humming. Since Christmas, the Leafs rank third on the power play league-wide.
Their five-forward top unit has been lethal, and Mitch Marner has been a great addition at the point. He is excellent at picking the right pass, whether it’s a Matthews or Nylander one-timer on the flank or a soft pass to Tavares in the bumper. Marner makes great reads and puts it on his teammates’ tape or in their wheelhouse. While he doesn’t own a huge shot from the point, he can get shots through traffic and will shoot if opponents show him the disrespect of sagging off and affording him time and space. With Matthew Knies in front causing havoc, as long as the puck makes it through, it will create problems.
While the Leafs’ top unit has been excellent for a while now, we’d be remiss not to point out that they are just 1-for-16 in April. They have created all sorts of chances, so it hasn’t looked bad per se, and we can argue the meaningfulness of some of these games in general. However, for a power play group that’s basically the same personnel as previous ones and has underperformed in the playoffs historically, we can’t totally ignore the April numbers.
The Leafs’ PP also went 0-for-6 against Ottawa this season, although it’s important to point out that the Leafs had their five-forward unit play only one of those six power plays, so take this stat with a grain of salt.
We know who the Leafs will run out there at this point, and the first key for them will be entering the zone cleanly. The Bruins caused them huge fits last spring as the Leafs were constantly jammed up on entries, particularly John Tavares along the wall when the Leafs sliced through the middle and bumped it over. Tavares would have to make a read to far-side rim the puck, put it in the corner, move it to the point, or simply curl with it himself. The Bruins were all over it, and the Leafs really struggled to set up cleanly.
Once the Leafs are set up in the zone, there are so many options between Nylander and Matthews’ one-timers, Marner up top, Tavares in the bumper, and Knies either occupying space in front and winning rebounds or making little passes down low.
This isn’t a two-unit team that will split the power play in half; this is the unit that will see the bulk of the action (and rightfully so).
Ottawa will combat it with a top unit of Pinto-Greig up front, with Sanderson-Zub on defense. Much like we discussed in the five-on-five matchups, Pinto is a critical player for the Senators in this series. He will take on the heavy lifting vs. Matthews at evens and will be counted on as a top penalty killer.
The Pinto-Greig combo was only outscored 4-11 in nearly 90 minutes together on the PK this season. By comparison, Matthews-Marner have been outscored 2-14 in roughly five more minutes of shorthanded ice time. As a team, it’s also worth flagging that the Senators were tied for ninth in shorthanded goals with eight.
The Sens run a second unit of Chabot-Jensen on the penalty kill, and Claude Giroux is a regular. It’s unclear who else they will use at forward. Matthew Highmore is a regular penalty killer for them when he dresses, but he doesn’t appear to be in their lineup to start the playoffs. After Highmore, no Sens forward averaged more than Dylan Cozens’ 24 seconds per game on the penalty kill following the trade deadline.
It would be a pretty stunning decision if the Sens rotated three forwards on the penalty kill against the Leafs. It would be a huge advantage for Toronto. The Senators have some quality penalty killers up front, but they lack depth, an issue the Leafs should be able to exploit over the grind of a series. On defense, it’s hard to see any of those four defensemen adequately handling Knies in front, but they are mobile and close space with their footspeed in the other areas of the offensive zone.
Pinto and Greig have good speed and will pressure through the neutral zone, so the Leafs must be dialed in on those entries. Once in the zone, the Senators run more of a “diamond” penalty kill, pushing to the flanks, blocking cross-ice one-timer plays, and pushing right up to Marner on the point. That means Tavares will have space in the middle, and if they work it down low, there will be some time and space.
Knies has developed his game in this area. The Leafs can work it low, where he’ll make little cross-ice passes backdoor or even bump it to the middle for a high-low-high play. The Leafs will need to create more of those types of plays if Ottawa remains in this formation.
The Senators’ penalty kill finished 19th, which is actually worse than the Leafs’ (17th). It’s a middling unit overall and lacks depth, but their top players are legitimately solid. That said, it’s something the Leafs should be able to exploit over a series. At the end of the day, we’re talking about a top-10 PP unit that has been elite for over half the season against a middling PK unit.
That said, the Leafs’ power play has looked like an advantage on paper entering the playoffs but has not proven to be in reality many times before.
The Leafs’ penalty kill vs. the Senators’ power play
Notably, the Senators led the league in penalties drawn by a wide margin this season with 349, 22 more than second place. This has been a trend for them for years now; they were second last season, and first again the season prior.
It is likely no coincidence as they dress a few of the biggest divers in the league. Tim Stutzle tied for the league lead in drawn penalties and will go down if looked at the wrong way. Surprisingly, Brady Tkachuk was tied for third in the league.
First and foremost, the Leafs will need to be disciplined. The Leafs ended the season with a -17 penalty differential compared to the Senators’ +41. That’s a significant gap, one the Leafs will need to close in the series. If those rates continue, it’s a huge advantage for Ottawa. Truthfully, this is the type of thing management should be flagging behind closed doors with the league in advance of the series in hopes it doesn’t get out of hand.
As a result of receiving so many power plays, the Senators were quietly tied for the third-most 5v4 power-play goals in the league.
The Sens’ top power play unit consists of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Batherson, and Dylan Cozens (post-trade deadline). We’ll see if the Senators continue to run Cozens on the top unit over Claude Giroux, but they are two interchangeable righties regardless. My guess is the Sens will use Cozens, who played on the unit in their final game when Tkachuk returned, but they will probably be quick to turn to a veteran if they falter.
Stutzle led the Senators in power-play points, followed by Batherson. League-wide, Stutzle was tied for 10th in power-play points, and Batherson was tied for 13th. While they did have a ton of power-play opportunities, they cashed in and had two big-time producers. Tkachuk led them in power-play goals with 14, which was tied for fifth in the league, while Batherson posted 13.
In a meaningless game 82, the Senators scored a power-play goal that demonstrated their preferred setup. Sanderson runs the point, Stutzle and Cozens play the half-wall (often on their strong sides), and Batherson and Tkachuk are down low. Flipping through a collection of their power play goals, Batherson loves this pass to the high guy/in the bumper area:
While the power play generally runs through Stutzle on the wall – hence leading their team in power-play scoring – Batherson is a real X-factor on it. He’s a really good passer down by the goal line, and he’s crafty in how he does it (looking players off, faking one way and going the other). He loves to find the middle pass, and it’s super dangerous. He will also pop out at times as a one-timer option and move around the zone on the power play in general. He’s a real wildcard for the Senators’ power play.
Naturally, Chris Tanev will play on the right side of the Leafs’ PK, followed by Brandon Carlo, so the Leafs will have their best defensemen penalty killers up against Batherson, which is a positive from the Toronto perspective. They will need to block the inside passing lanes and ensure Batherson isn’t teeing up teammates for prime looks or getting his own one-timer off.
Close to Batherson will be Tkachuk. This is how the Senators do a lot of their damage: the two forwards close to the net, with Tkachuk naturally providing the main net-front player, are a lot to handle. Here’s a good example of the pair teaming up down low:
It will be imperative that the Leafs’ defense clears out those two bodies down low and takes away their passing options, as Ottawa likes the high-low-high looks.
On the potentially advantageous side of the strategy, Ottawa doesn’t work the seams a ton because their half-wall plays are not on their one-timer sides. Tim Stutzle scored only five power-play goals this season as their focal point, and while two of them were one-timers (including vs. the Leafs), they both came in 4v3 situations. He didn’t score a single one-timer PP goal at 5v4. Neither did their point man, Jake Sanderson, although he has a fake one-timer that he effectively turns into a wrist shot.
The Senators’ power play is more about moving the puck and creating shots or plays through Batherson and Tkachuk around the net. Can the Leafs sag off the half-walls in this situation and protect the house effectively? Can they clear the net and prevent backdoor tap-ins in tight?
If Ottawa falters, their second unit with Perron and Giroux could be a dangerous wildcard; there is some one-timer capability there, and Chabot is no slouch from the top of the point, either. Fabian Zetterlund and Ridley Greig will likely join them on the second unit, making it a unit of consequence to which the Senators’ coaching staff will allocate a decent chunk of power-play ice time. They aren’t an afterthought, and they will provide a bit of a different look with some heavier shots from the half-wall and the point.
We know Tanev and McCabe are the Leafs’ top two penalty killing defensemen, followed by Carlo and Benoit. At forward, there are some moving parts. They have recently deployed duos of Matthews-Marner, Jarnkrok-Knies, and Laughton-Lorentz.
It’s unclear if David Kampf — who is now healthy — will dress, but he’s noteworthy in this equation as well. After the trade deadline, he led all Leafs forwards in shorthanded time on ice per game until his injury.
While the Leafs start Matthews-Marner, they often look to get them off the ice immediately. If they win the draw and clear it, they’ll usually switch off for a different unit. The Leafs’ minute management will be worth monitoring. Matthews and Marner will play huge minutes at five-on-five and on the power play; when it’s an every-other–night schedule in the playoffs, they can’t gas them on the penalty kill.
The Leafs have more than enough credible penalty killers and a quality goalie behind them, but they have looked disconnected as a unit far too often. There’s no excuse for Lane Lambert and this collection of veterans to ice a weak penalty kill. The bar isn’t set at great, but it needs to be respectable.
It starts with mitigating the sheer number of power plays the Senators worked to their advantage all season through disciplined five-on-five play, but when penalties inevitably happen, the Leafs need to focus on protecting the house and preventing Ottawa from working them high-to-low.
