Photo: John E. Sokolowski/Imagn Images

An NHL team can’t make the playoffs in November, but it can sure dig itself a hole it can’t climb out of. 

As things stand today, the Maple Leafs are sitting dead last in the Eastern Conference, a position that has been fully earned. They are last in points percentage, own the worst goal differential in the conference (minus-eight), and are giving up the most goals against per game in the entire league.

Compounding matters is the teams they’ve lost to. They’ve played division rivals Montreal, Buffalo, Boston, and Detroit eight times total, winning just two of those games, with one win coming in overtime. Out of 16 possible points, they grabbed just four to their division rivals’ 13.

While the entire conference is jammed up — all but two teams are within six points, which means two really good weeks would firmly put the Leafs back in the driver’s seat — they are on the cusp of putting themselves in an insurmountable situation without a turnaround soon.

Even if we put their struggles and injuries aside — two massive ifs to ignore — the team is 1-6-0 on the road and started a six-game road trip by getting absolutely handled by the Canadiens, who were on a five-game losing streak.

The Leafs‘ next five games on the trip? Columbus (who has beaten the Leafs twice already), Washington (who swept them last season), Pittsburgh (who has a bone to pick given how the last meeting went), Florida (who needs no introduction), and Carolina (dominated the Leafs in the first meeting). 

Toronto would need to win four of those five to finish above .500 on this road trip already. That’s obviously not impossible, but it’s very difficult to envision right now, short of a bunch of injured players returning and playing really well. 

I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself and speculate about what happens if they lose most of these upcoming games, and this road trip probably isn’t deciding the whole season, but there’s a world where it could. It doesn’t feel dramatic to write that if the Leafs are cleaned out on this trip, their 2025-26 season will be too far gone. 

We’re 22 games in, and the team hasn’t shown us much reason to believe in them at all. They are in real trouble and face big challenges this week. Either they meet this adversity head-on and emerge through it, or they plummet further and make the path forward much clearer.

Notes

Photo: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

– I was curious about the Leafs’ penalty kill without Auston Matthews, and so far, it is 11/12 since he was injured against Boston (91.7%). It’s just five games, but the penalty killing acumen of players like Scott Laughton, Steven Lorentz, Calle Jarnkrok, and even Nic Roy — who appeared in two of those games — is quite obvious. They are all good at it. Lorentz, in particular, has averaged 2:41 shorthanded per game to lead all forwards in those five games, while Jarnkrok is not far behind at 2:29, as he has also played in all five of those games. Laughton has played in two of those games and averaged 2:32. Before the Matthews injury, Lorentz averaged just 1:26 while shorthanded.

– Before his injury, Matthews was third among the forward group in shorthanded time on ice per game (1:53), while Matthew Knies was fourth (1:42). Before the Matthews injury, the Leafs’ penalty kill, where he was a regular, was killing just 77.4%. This is not to suggest Matthews is bad at it and should never be on the PK — and Joseph Woll’s return has helped, too, of course — but the team has several other good penalty killers. Matthews wasn’t even averaging a point per game before his injury, which is a pretty low bar for him to clear, nor can he stay healthy. Of all things for Matthews to worry about, the PK should be pretty low on the list. The same can be said for Knies, who was very productive before his injury but was not particularly involved physically. 

– Since Matthews went down, Nick Robertson also has just one point. It was a goal in Chicago, where he played really well on a line with John Tavares. Since then, they’ve paired Robertson with Max Domi; Robertson hasn’t registered a shot on net in two of three games alongside Domi, and he’s a minus-four. Robertson appeared to be taking a much-needed step forward in his development, but he fell right back into some problems when he was reunited with Domi. It’s not really a combination that’s benefiting the team, and Domi, in particular, has essentially struggled all season while making pretty much all of his linemates worse. 

– We can see the difference a decent player makes over a really bad one: Philippe Myers has really struggled this season, and while Troy Stecher is not a world-beater by any means — he is pointless in three games as a Leaf and has played over 14 minutes just once in those three games — the gap between the two is significant. The Leafs have won Stecher’s minutes so far at five-on-five. Sometimes, improvement is not just about adding talent at the top, but removing liabilities at the bottom.

– Speaking of liabilities, there are a lot of those for the Leafs to choose from at the moment. We don’t need to beat a dead horse about Domi anymore (it is blatantly obvious). Dakota Joshua is pacing for 19 points right now and is essentially providing little value otherwise. He has been an okay third-unit penalty killer, but otherwise, he has been outscored 7-15 at five-on-five and has not been a physical factor.

Joshua technically leads the team in hits and by a wide margin, too. His 69 hits registered are 17 more than Bobby McMann, who is second on the team. It has to be the most empty-calorie stat going right now for the team, as Joshua hasn’t been a physical force or tone setter in any capacity, which is what you’d want from a hits leader. His altercation with Arber Xhekaj at the end of the game against Montreal was far too late, not to mention that he barely wanted any part of it when confronted. 

– Matias Maccelli picked up an assist late against Montreal to snap what was a six-game pointless streak. He already has one five-game pointless streak to his name this season at the start of October, but that one felt a little unlucky as he was setting up plays that weren’t getting buried. Over the past few weeks, though, he has faded.

In the span of his six-game pointless streak plus his secondary assist against Montreal, Maccelli has gone shotless in four of those games. Maccelli is up 13-9 in his five-on-five minutes this season and is pacing at an okay rate with nine points in 22 games, but barely two months into the season, we can already point to two extended stretches where he hasn’t produced, his game tailspins, and he doesn’t offer anything else. Maccelli was always going to be a work in progress — and we can see the skill at times — but the consistency isn’t even close to good enough for a player who is now 25 years of age. 

– Kudos to Dakota Mermis, who scored a big goal for the team this week and had a spirited fight with Florian Xhekaj. He struggled in his first few games, but he has really settled in alongside Troy Stecher and has given the team some decent minutes.

– Can’t ask for anything more from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, either, as he has been excellent. He hasn’t produced more than 32 points in a season since 2018-19, and he’s already halfway there with 16 in 22 games. He’s averaging 21 minutes a night, winning his minutes, playing on the right side, and is one of the only Leafs with some actual bite who engages physically. It’s not much consolation, as the team has largely struggled, but he has been excellent.

Quotes

Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Robertson, Maple Leafs
Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

“It’s kind of hard to say. I played a couple of games, a couple in the stands, and now I’m back playing, which is nice. But I mean, I thought I had a pretty solid start, at least.”

– Calle Jarnkrok, when asked to assess his game this season

In other words, Calle Jarnkrok essentially said he doesn’t know how to judge his game, given he started well, got healthy scratched for essentially no reason, bounced in and out of the lineup, and now he’s back, I guess? 

Jarnkrok scored in each of the first three games of the season, didn’t pick up a point in the next two, and found himself healthy scratched as a result. When accountability only exists for certain players, it creates issues within the team dynamic. Dakota Joshua, for example, has played in every single game this season. So, too, has Max Domi. Players in the room aren’t stupid.

“I think this builds, you know, character. So, obviously, it’s tough right now, but in the end, I think it’ll be good for our group.”

– William Nylander on the losses and injuries piling up

I get what William Nylander is saying, and if they turn this around and make the playoffs, he will be correct. But I don’t think there’s nearly enough urgency right now about simply making the playoffs. They are in serious trouble right now; it’s no longer just hand-wringing and manufactured drama. There really hasn’t been much sense of that from the group, though, and their recent play largely reflects it.

The Leafs have made the playoffs in nine straight years; it’s easy to take for granted how hard it is to do every year, and to believe everything will sort itself out. Half the league misses the playoffs, though; it’s just as likely it won’t. 

“I take responsibility. I got to bury one… If I bury one of them, we could’ve won the game. So, that’s the unfortunate part. But I’ve got to stay positive.”

– Easton Cowan following the Leafs’ overtime loss to Columbus

I appreciate what Easton Cowan is saying, and he did have a collection of chances to score in the game. But Cowan’s game has been trending up and has been one of the biggest positives for this franchise through 22 games. The reality is that they shouldn’t be banking on Cowan to produce to win games. This is par for the course for most 20-year-olds when they are not Matthews or Marner or some other top draft pick walking into the league. 

Cowan didn’t get any real time to develop in the AHL and has been thrown into the deep end in the NHL, where the team actively needs him to produce to win games. There will be growing pains, and that’s not Cowan’s fault, as half the team is made up of underperforming veterans. But this is the reality.

In terms of finishing, it would be nice to see Cowan work on his shot in the coming years. He’s shooting four percent in his first 14 games, and there are times where we can see him not entirely confident in his shot — a backdoor pass against Columbus stands out, as he tried to pull it instead of shooting it right away, running himself out of space.

It’s somewhat reminiscent of when Nazem Kadri entered the league with the Leafs and needed to work on his shot. Cowan is further along than Kadri was then and has shown some good mechanics at the same time, but he’s not much of a threat right now coming down the wing as a shooter. 

Tweets of the Week

John Tavares and William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs
Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA Today Sports/Imagn Images

On the glass-half-full side, William Nylander is producing about as well as you could humanly ask him to. He has 29 points in 19 games and has been fantastic. On the glass-half-empty side, the Leafs are last in the conference while Nylander produces at an elite level.

Not to pile on, but the Leafs’ special teams struggles aren’t receiving much attention due to how poorly the team has played at five-on-five. Make no mistake, though, the special teams units are struggling. The power play is currently 25th. The penalty kill is a semi-respectable 18th (80%) despite some long stretches of poor goaltending, so they receive a pass to some degree.

The power play, though? It would be difficult to write much about it in a positive light. They struggle to gain the zone consistently, and when they set it up, there isn’t much of a plan. The team has already endured three separate four-game stretches without a power-play goal. None of their top four scorers is averaging even one power-play shot on net per game.

For reference, before Marc Savard joined the staff two years ago, William Nylander recorded 85 shots on the power play in 82 games, leading to a career-high 35 power-play points (11 goals). John Tavares recorded 87 in 80 that season (20 power-play points). Tavares has 15 shots in 22 games so far this season, while Nylander has 11 in 19. These are supposed to be the guys scoring right now, given the team’s injuries.

Nylander finally did shoot and score against Montreal when it was too little, too late, but look at the simplicity of the goal. With two Leafs in front (because they pulled their goalie), Nylander went downhill and shot it. That’s it. At a minimum, if they did this consistently, they would produce more than they have so far — let alone if we started thinking about actual set plays of note.

12 Leafs players have some form of no-trade protection. Most egregious amongst them include Dakota Joshua, Max Domi, and Calle Jarnkrok, who can each submit 10-13 team lists.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Scott Laughton, Maple Leafs
Photo: Dan Hamilton/Imagn Images

1.   I think the Leafs’ lineup decisions remain confusing. Their Steven Lorentz – Scott Laughton combination is one of the only good combos they can turn to right now, given their injuries, and they immediately split it up to play Lorentz at 4C. Calle Jarnkrok and William Nylander are the only two right-shots on the forward group, and yet they are playing on the same line. In his two games, Jacob Quillan looked like a viable center on a team currently lacking centers, but he sat so that a collection of veterans could continue to do nothing.

The mere concept of a Dakta Joshua – Max Domi – Nick Robertson line is as silly in theory as it is in practice. The idea of a Sammy Blais – Steven Lorentz – Matias Maccelli line isn’t far behind. What was the purpose of the line? Was Maccelli going to grind with those two?

I understand that the Leafs are missing far too many key players, and the coach can only do so much with what he has. But it’s troubling that the coaching staff is constantly running combinations that are very difficult to rationalize, even if you squint and try your best.

2.   I think these are the sad-but-true statements about the Leafs’ forward group right now:

  • Short of playing Easton Cowan with John Tavares and William Nylander all game, the team’s next best left winger is still Bobby McMann. He’s definitely a better option with Tavares and Nylander than Calle Jarnkrok at this point.
  • They need to protect Max Domi defensively as best as they can because teams are scoring nightly against him. Jarnkrok probably makes sense as the right winger there, and then they can pick and choose the other winger.
  • The Scott Laughton – Steven Lorentz combo is pretty good and should remain together.
  • If Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies return this week, they can reunite them with Nick Robertson on the other wing, and that’s basically the team’s forward group. At least it makes sense. If Matthews and Knies don’t return, they may as well try Jacob Quillan with Robertson and see if their speed creates something together.

3.  When the injured forwards start returning, I think Berube finally has to start healthy-scratching veterans. Domi is the easiest candidate, alongside Joshua. Both of those players simply haven’t performed, and we don’t need to lament it any more than we already have. The bottom line is that there needs to be some standards and accountability. I get that Berube’s hands are tied a bit at the moment, but that should hopefully end shortly — possibly in the next game — and he has to start shaking the boat. He keeps calling this a veteran team, but they have too many veterans content to do nothing night after night. Start pissing players off.  

4.   Provided Jake McCabe is healthy, I’d rather play Troy Stecher with McCabe to get McCabe back to the left side, while pairing up Simon Benoit with Dakota Mermis. Mermis has played the right before. It’s not great or a long-term solution of any kind, but they need McCabe to be a lot better than he’s been, and it’s not close to happening on the right side.

McCabe’s entire sequence on the opening Montreal goal was horrible, from giving it away in the offensive zone to a poor track back to a wide-open cushion for the puck carrier, resulting in an easy pass across for the goal. McCabe has won his five-on-five minutes in goals just once in the past seven games — the game against St. Louis. That’s the only game the team has won in that stretch.

McCabe needs to be better, and the Leafs really need him to be better. Part of it is simply on the player, but I think the Leafs would help him out by getting him back on the left, away from Benoit and paired with a right-handed shot.

5.   I think the Leafs’ PR strategy does the organization and its fans a real disservice. There are six regulars out right now — potentially seven, if McCabe is out now — and the fans know nothing about any of the injuries or when any of them might return, other than it being fairly obvious what happened to Tanev. The Leafs clearly take an approach whereby they don’t disclose any information whatsoever, but I don’t think it helps anyone. The team is now last in the conference, and fans watched clips of Matthews and Knies participating in multiple team skates, yet they couldn’t play. Fans then watched a watered-down Leafs lineup get rinsed against an archrival.

Generally, when a player can fully practice multiple times in a row, they’re able to play, but neither Knies nor Matthews did; nobody knows anything, and the team was crushed in Montreal. At that point, it becomes natural to question the players and what’s really going on. They probably have legitimate reasons for missing games still, but when there’s no transparency, it’s a lot easier to question the situation.

This is a choice the franchise is making in how it chooses to operate. Since his hiring, MLSE President Keith Pelley has made several comments about the importance of fan support and new ways to get them more involved. I don’t know how or why they think this meshes. I don’t think they are protecting the players, either. There is a way to discuss injuries and proper timelines without jeopardizing the players, while also informing fans about when they can expect to see key contributors return. This isn’t rocket science.

Earlier in the week, Berube joked that he might find out an injury timeline after his media availability. I’m not sure what’s funny about this. I think fans reasonably deserve to know when their players are returning, especially the team’s best ones. Maybe you can get away with it when you’re winning, but you can’t be coy, play mediocre (or worse) hockey, and not manage the fanbase’s expectations.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR