Tonight’s opening shift perfectly set the tone for the 40 minutes to follow: Calgary put the puck in deep, cycled and outworked the Maple Leafs, and then William Nylander did something good.

On the early 1-0 goal, John Tavares deserves some credit for a nice play to knock down a poor Jonathan Huberdeau saucer pass. The second Tavares made contact with the puck, Nylander knew to take off right away, and his longtime linemate knew the breakaway play was on. All Tavares needed to do from there was make the pass.

Dustin Wolf is a really good goalie, but he didn’t even move while Nylander blew the puck by him. There is so much deception in Nylander’s release that even when he’s coming right down on the goalie cleanly with a clear intention to shoot, it’s really difficult to read.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, they only recorded two more shots on net in the period. The shot attempts were a little more kind at 21-16 in favour of Calgary; the Flames didn’t exactly create much or really test Joseph Woll in the period.

Still, slice and dice it any way you want, three shots in a period — and really, it’s two shots in 19:25, as Nylander scored 35 seconds into the game — against any team, let alone this Flames squad, is awful.

The second period was an improvement from the Leafs, who outshot Calgary 11-10, for whatever that’s worth. Really, though, the period — like most of the game — belonged to Nylander. #88 won a nifty battle against Morgan Frost below the goal line, where Frost had body position, but Nylander was so strong on his stick that he took the puck anyway and centered it right onto Maccelli’s tape for a one-timer 2-0 goal. 

A few shifts later, the Flames created some offensive-zone time before Mikael Backlund cut through the crease and made contact with Woll, including a shove to the head. Woll took exception, slashing Backlund before Brandon Carlo got involved. After the ensuing scrum, the refs made it 4v4, where the Leafs sent out Matthews and Nylander, who went to work.

After a nice tic-tac-toe sequence between OEL, Nylander, and Matthews led to a one-timer in the slot, Nylander picked up the rebound and found a streaking Troy Stecher. The former Flame made a nice read to cut in and pull it to his backhand for an easy finish into a gaping net. 

At 3-0 up against one of the worst teams in the league, this game should effectively be over. Alas, the story of the Leafs‘ season reared its ugly head: they can’t defend. They can’t grind the clock in the offensive zone, and they often shoot themselves in the foot, coaching staff included. 

With the game and run of play comfortably in hand, OEL twice had the puck on his stick with a chance to make a proper outlet pass. The first time, he turned it over cross-ice. The second time, he threw a grenade at Tavares. After the turnover, Tavares didn’t support properly, and OEL got spun around on what should have been a simple 2v2, allowing Kadri a clean look that Woll got a piece of but couldn’t keep out.

Two and a half minutes later, following a TV timeout, Craig Berube opted to send out the Tavares line for a defensive-zone faceoff. Tavares lost the faceoff and then a battle in the slot. OEL paused in front while all of it was happening, making him late to Joel Farabee on the backdoor, who made a nice non-kicking-motion deflection off his skate.

After Calgary made it a one-goal game, Matthew Knies took a lazy offensive-zone penalty. Lucky for Knies, the best chance of the Calgary power play was a Scott Laughton breakaway with Morgan Frost draped all over him. Laughton was also held onto after the shot attempt, preventing him from skating back, but alas, it is the same old story in every Leaf game at this point. The Flames, fifth in the league in penalties, apparently played a perfectly clean game tonight. Nevermind the blatant missed slewfoot in the first period as well.

In the third period, the Leafs got back to parking the bus, unless Nylander was on the ice. The Flames out-attempted the Leafs 26-14, and as the period went on, Woll took over and sealed the win. Nylander hitting the post and setting up Maccelli for a clean shot in the slot were the Leafs’ two best chances to extend the lead. Otherwise, it was the Woll show.

First, Woll stopped Sharangovich on a toe-drag play in the slot. He then absolutely robbed Adam Klapka with his paddle after a ridiculous bounce. For good measure, the Flames hit the bar, but Philippe Myers was there to clear it off the goal line.

With a few minutes left in the game, the Leafs made it a lot harder on themselves than it needed to be. Instead of getting it deep after gaining center, Knies attempted a move at the blue line, a minor-league hockey play when up a goal with under three minutes left. After Knies was easily dispossessed, the Flames transitioned the other way and applied pressure.

Toronto iced it, initiating a Leafs-win-the-faceoff-and-ice-it cycle. Brandon Carlo, Jake McCabe, and Scott Laughton were really solid when closing the game down, winning multiple battles and clearing the net well. Eventually, a clearance led to McMann sealing the victory into the empty net, further upping the trade value with his 18th goal of the season.

Post-Game Notes

– This game was a simple one to break down: Was William Nylander on the ice or not? His line was up 17-9 in shot attempts, while every other Leafs line was tilted the other direction. You can live with the numbers of the Scott Laughton line, as it was basically a draw (5-6), with zero offensive-zone faceoffs. The numbers from Auston Matthews‘ line were glaring: out-attempted a ridiculous 21-8 against this Calgary team. They created next to nothing, and the only positive thing to be said is that they didn’t get scored on. The bar has to be a lot higher for the top line.

– The Nic Roy third line also struggled, particularly Matthew Knies, who had countless turnovers and played just 14:45. He also took an offensive-zone penalty and almost cost the team at the end with a bad turnover. Earlier in the third, he committed another bad defensive-zone turnover, but Calgary didn’t connect on the slot pass. We know that Knies has been playing hurt, but if this is what playing hurt looks like, why bother playing at all?

– The Leafs held the lead for 59+ minutes in this game, even though it got rocky at points. They held the lead for just 19 minutes over the past eight games combined, including the games they won against Vancouver. 

– In a game with only one penalty (because every team is perfect against the Leafs now, apparently!), the ice time was really spread out. Matias Maccelli (!) led all Leafs forwards with 17:33. Matthews played a full-game season-low 16:35. Steven Lorentz played a team-low of 10:35, as only he and Calle Jarnkrok played under 12 minutes at forward. Considering the Leafs play again tomorrow against a rested Oilers team, you can’t really ask for much more. The ice times were low, and the Leafs found a way to win the game.

– It was a difficult game to evaluate the Leafs’ defense. The Leafs’ forwards weren’t any good except for one line, and really, it was one guy. That said, the Jake McCabe – Brandon Carlo pairing didn’t concede a goal; McCabe played 23:46, Carlo played 21:19, and they locked it down really well in the third. We will see how they fare against much stiffer competition, but this is a pairing we’ve been pushing to see for a long time; it actually makes sense instead of the mediocre-at-best Rielly-Carlo pairing and OEL on the right side with McCabe (how is this even a conversation?).  

– It was a similar story for the Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Troy Stecher pairing. They ripped it to each other a few times across the offensive blue line, combining for five shots on net. Stecher hasn’t been particularly productive in his career, but the puck also doesn’t die on his stick. There’s some skill there. 

For all the talk of selling, Stecher is a pending UFA I would look to retain. First and foremost, I don’t think he would net the Leafs much in a trade return. He was a waiver claim, and most teams aren’t pining for an undersized defenseman, regardless of whether he has been effective in Toronto and has playoff experience. The Leafs need right-shot defensemen, especially if they decide to move Carlo at some point. Perhaps most importantly, an organization needs some good veterans around, no matter what stage it’s in. Stecher is one. He is a thoughtful leader who leaves it all out there and has some fire. Those are rare traits in these parts. I doubt he’d cost a lot to retain, given he’s making under $800K this season. He strikes me as a player who offers a lot more value to the Leafs than a fourth-round pick or whatever the trade return would be. 

– Even the Simon Benoit – Philippe Myers pairing didn’t concede a goal and were up 14-12 in shot attempts. It’s a limited pairing, and I wouldn’t bank on them to string any games together, but at least for this one, they did their jobs. Myers’ 17:29 was his second-highest ice time of the season.

– This was the third time in four games that the Leafs didn’t get a single power play. Entirely laughable at this point. 

– Parking the bus in the third period, as the Leafs do, is not a serious winning recipe. It barely worked against this Calgary team, and the Leafs only survived because Woll was incredible in net. Making plays at the blue line instead of getting it deep, no forecheck, and no ability to cycle and grind down the clock… It’s a repeat storyline with no end in sight.

– I would be very tempted to start Joseph Woll again against Edmonton, given it’s the Leafs’ last game before the Olympic break. He was brilliant in this one, while Anthony Stolarz hasn’t played a good game since the beginning of November. I do think at some point Stolarz will figure it out — he’s too talented not to, and maybe it’ll even be tomorrow! — but it is very tempting to go straight back to Woll.

– It’s hard to imagine Berube changing the lineup for tomorrow’s game, which means Easton Cowan’s last game will be January 29 before the Leafs return to action on February 25, if he’s even in the lineup at that point. He hasn’t eclipsed 13:30 in time-on-ice once in 2026. I don’t know how the Leafs can justify this development plan, especially as the team heads toward an early offseason. 

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights: Maple Leafs 4 vs. Flames 2

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