The Maple Leafs appear to be on the verge of a blockbuster trade that would reportedly send Matthew Knies to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for Kirill Marchenko and Elvis Merzlikins, with other pieces possibly involved.
The timing is wild, as the Leafs just returned from a full team bonding trip in Knies’ hometown, of all places. But GM John Chayka sees an opportunity to improve and appears to be going for it, assuming the two sides can come to terms on a contract extension for Marchenko, who makes $3.85 million for one more season before he’s RFA-eligible.
The centerpiece of the deal would be Marchenko, who is undoubtedly the best player moving in this trade. As we said years ago when the Leafs traded Nazem Kadri, the team that gets the best player usually wins the deal.
To this point, Knies has been an excellent complementary winger with rare power-forward tools. He is a quality young player in this league. At the same time, he has largely struggled away from Auston Matthews and has struggled to drive play when he’s not with Matthews and Mitch Marner. In June, when his name was making the rounds, I wrote this about Knies:
“I don’t want to sit here and pick his game apart, but there are some fair concerns, too. While he’s productive, he hasn’t shown any real ability to drive a line. He has been a high-end complementary winger rather than an actual line driver (his numbers without Matthews over the past three years have been abysmal—outchanced, outshot, and outscored). Though he’s big, he’s not particularly physically imposing and hasn’t stood up for teammates, including after Easton Cowan was put through the net by 5-foot-10 Ozzy Wiesblatt early in his career.”
Two years older than Knies, Marchenko has established himself as a genuine top-line winger by comparison. He is a 26-year-old, 6-foot-3, right-shot winger who has played only four seasons in the league, including a 59-game rookie season, and has scored at least 21 goals in every campaign. As a rookie, he had just four assists to go along with 21 goals; his shot was his calling card, and in many ways, it still is. Over the past few seasons, he has rounded out his offensive game, recording seasons of 43 and 40 assists alongside his regular goal scoring.
Over the last two seasons in particular, Marchenko has produced at a legitimate top-line rate, with 74 points in 79 games followed by 67 points in 76 games last season. He was primarily centered by Sean Monahan in the first of those seasons and Adam Fantilli last season. Regardless of who has played with him, Marchenko has tilted the ice.
In fact, since his rookie season, his team has won his five-on-five minutes by scores of 49-35, 75-38 (!) and 51-37 last season. Ideally, the Leafs would trade Knies to improve at a premium position such as center or defense, which remain clear organizational needs. But there is something to be said for acquiring a player in Marchenko who can drive a line. For a team that was the worst in the league at controlling play last season, he represents a significant opportunity to improve in that area.
Marchenko is a high-volume shooter who ranks 38th league-wide in shots on goal over the past two seasons combined. He has done almost all of his damage at five-on-five in that span, with just eight of his 58 goals coming on the power play. His 49 even-strength goals rank 23rd overall. Again, for a team that was terrible at five-on-five last season, he should make a difference.
Without going too far down the rabbit hole of line combinations just yet, the handedness in their future top six fits a lot better. Gavin McKenna and Easton Cowan are both left shots, while Marchenko and William Nylander are both right shots. You will always find varying opinions on the value of handedness, but it matters to have players on their proper sides, especially come playoff time, when time and space are tight and every advantage on the margin matters.
While we’re fairly confident this would be an upgrade from a pure player perspective, it does carry some financial risk. Knies has five years remaining on a contract that pays him $7.75 million per season. That deal came into place before the cap exploded, and the Leafs will now have to negotiate a new one with Marchenko in a cap environment that could see him make $4 million to $5 million more than Knies. It’s not nothing, but under the new cap, that difference could essentially amount to a Colton Sissons or Dakota Joshua type of player, which is a trade you’d make without blinking. As we have seen virtually every time the Leafs have possessed cap space, having it doesn’t mean it results in anything notable. If you can pay a top-line player, you should go ahead and do it.
The Leafs are also expected to take on the final year of Elvis Merzlikins’ contract to help facilitate the trade. The 32-year-old is owed $5.4 million this season but underwent successful shoulder surgery on August 17, 2026, and remains sidelined indefinitely without a set return timeline. It’s possible he’s out for the season. Ideally, you don’t live in LTIR land, but with Max Domi already pushing the Leafs there, they might as well lean into it. The club would still have to navigate maximizing the space, but theoretically, they could place Domi’s $3.75 million and Merzlikins’ $5.4 million cap hits on LTIR together, giving them enough room to make another addition at some point this season.
While you have to give to get, it would be sad to see Knies go. He loves Toronto and has established himself as part of this core, although that can also be considered a negative given how the core has performed. Knies hasn’t quite blossomed into the full-fledged power forward you would have hoped to see by now, but he is far more physical than Marchenko. Knies recorded 152 hits last season compared to 61 for Marchenko (yes, hits are a tricky stat, but they’re a simple barometer in this case). For a team that is already not particularly physical, losing one of its few involved players is worth noting, even if both are listed at 6-foot-3.
It hurts to see a homegrown talent like Knies leave. His game grew by leaps and bounds, and his ascent as a second-round pick was swift. But there is a possibility the Leafs are selling somewhat high, too. He has been productive at five-on-five but hasn’t been a strong play driver or come close to proving himself away from top-tier talent. Knies has power-forward tools, but he hasn’t quite become a true power forward. A number of off-side things happened to his teammates last season, and he was on the ice without doing much about them. That’s not to suggest Marchenko would have stepped in (he likely wouldn’t have, either), but at some point, Knies can’t be grouped in that category if he doesn’t actually do those things. If he figures it out, this trade could be a lot tougher to look back on. But if this is generally what he is, Marchenko represents a notable improvement.
This is a big swing by the new GM: bringing in a more established top-line player while trading away a younger fan favourite. The aggressive approach and win-at-all-costs attitude are, truthfully, commendable. Between drafting Gavin McKenna first overall, acquiring Darren Raddysh, and now making this move for Marchenko, the Leafs have taken a number of big swings at the top of their lineup. Now they need to put it all together.
