The Maple Leafs are seeking their fourth win in a row when they host the Eastern Conference-leading Washington Capitals, who continue to pick up points (4-2-1) during Alex Ovechkin’s injury absence (7:00 p.m. EST, TSN4).
Coming off of a terribly flat 3-0 loss to the Senators in mid-November, the Auston Matthews-Leafs Maple Leafs fell 3-1 down to the Capitals in the second half of the back-to-back in Washington, only to storm back with two goals in the final five minutes followed by an OT winner by John Tavares. They fired 17 shots on goal in the third period, and Washington head coach Spencer Carbery was disgusted by his team’s effort with the lead:
Carbery: “The second half of the game was not good enough. Embarrassing, for that matter. Just embarrassing, flat out… Playing a team on a back-to-back, in a third period with the way it looked with a two-goal lead… Embarrassing on home ice.”
The next day, a cooler-headed Carbery proceeded to double down on how bad his team’s performance was: “Honestly, a little bit worse than I originally thought at the time.”
As such, the Leafs should expect this Capitals team—which also has five Ontario-born forwards in the lineup—to come out looking to make good on their collapse in the last meeting.
The Leafs are coming off a couple of home wins over bottom-feeders this week (Chicago and Nashville) in which they got the expected results but didn’t bring their A-game or fire on all cylinders offensively. They’ll need to find another gear at five-on-five against an overachieving Capitals team that currently leads the league in even-strength offense.
With a regulation win tonight, the Leafs could enter the second half of this weekend back-to-back tomororw in Pittsburgh sitting tied with the Capitals for the lead in the Eastern Conference by points percentage.
In terms of lineup notes, Matthews-Marner will remain together after last game’s third-period success, and Anthony Stolarz will start in the net.
Game Day Quotes
Spencer Carbery on the matchup between two of the top teams in the East:
It should be a great hockey game. We know how well Toronto has played of late. It is a good chance for us to get our game back in order after the San Jose game, playing against a real good team in their building. A lot of guys have ties to the area. It is a good opportunity for our group.
Carbery on whether the loss to Toronto in mid-November serves as extra motivation for the Capitals tonight:
We talked a little bit about it this morning, but it is more from a standpoint of what we failed to do in the third period and how we got away from our game, which ended up costing us the hockey game.
It was more from an Xs and Os tactical standpoint of what we got away from, and for that matter, what this team does really well to give you issues, as they did at the end of that game.
Hopefully, we will be able to handle that a little bit better tonight and learn from the experience against them in our building.
Carbery on Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews re-uniting for tonight’s game:
When I watch, whether it is JT with Mitch, JT with Willy… To me, that is all just the ebbs and flows of a season. In my time here, it happened. Guys get moved around. It gets stale. You move it, and then it goes back.
They are just very, very elite players. When Mitch and Auston are playing together or Johnny and Willy, there is chemistry because they have played together for a long time. They can make a ton of plays in the offensive zone and off the rush. You have to be ready.
In my time here, I always appreciated that [Sheldon Keefe] would do a pretty good job of getting Willy, Auston, and Mitch on the ice at the same time three or four times a game. That wasn’t any genius plan that Keefer had. You have three really good players, so get them out on the ice. You can look like a really good coach doing that.
We also have to know that in the third period (last game), they had a huge period together, so that chemistry is going to be back, and they are feeling really good about themselves going into tonight.
Carbery on zero Capitals players making the 4 Nations tournament rosters:
Disappointing to see that. I thought we had several players who had strong arguments and cases to be a part of the tournament and represent their countries.
I understand my opinion is a little bit biased, but it is one thing if you are advocating for your players and sitting at .500. We are sitting at the top of the Eastern Conference standings right now, and to not have one guy there is a little odd to me, especially with some of the seasons guys are having.
They scout it so heavily, and they look into the numbers. Why have the Capitals had so much success this season? There are a lot of players we have who have strong cases.
I also have to take it with a grain of salt. The people who are making these decisions aren’t working with these players every day. I have worked with these players every single day for the last two years and watched them lay it on the line with how intelligent they are and how they play in tight games.
When you tell me it’s a best-on-best tournament, I am going with Tom Wilson all day long. I have seen it. I have seen what he can do in a 1-1 game when our season is on the line.
It is a little bit unfair and biased for me, but I felt like guys had real good starts to the year and deserved an opportunity. But I also understand they are difficult decisions when you get to the bubble of those teams.
Carbery on whether the 4 Nations snubs add motivation for the players, especially as the team plays in the spotlight in Toronto tonight:
Maybe, but I feel like our group has been pretty fueled from the offseason and summer. There were not a lot of people in the hockey world who picked the Washington Capitals to be sitting where they are.
If you look at it individually, John Carlson is still playing at an elite level. You can make strong arguments that he is playing as good as he has in the last 10 years when you look under the hood and at the numbers. There is the season Dylan Strome is having, and [Wilson] and Logan Thompson. Rasmus Sandin has taken a huge step this year.
I feel like our group is very self-motivated. They want to be the best and they want to win.
Playing in Toronto is the biggest hockey market in the world, and we have a lot of guys from that area. Playing in front of friends and family is always a little added (juice). But I just feel like they are already highly, highly motivated.
Craig Berube on the challenge presented by the Capitals:
They are a very good team. They score a lot. They’re a good rush team. They are a big, heavy team, in my opinion. They are going to forecheck hard, and they are good on the rush.
We had our hands full [in Washington] for that game. I don’t expect anything different. I know Ovechkin played that game, but they are still playing really good hockey without him.
Berube on the decision to start Matthews-Marner together tonight:
With the way it ended up last game, I think we start that way tonight. Sometimes, you change things up in games and it works, so you stick with it and see how it goes.
John Tavares on not making the Team Canada 4 Nations roster:
It is disappointing. I would have loved to have been a part of it. Playing in best-on-best tournaments internationally and playing for the Stanley Cup are the pinnacles of our sport. Having the opportunity to compete in those events is really special and unique.
Obviously, I am disappointed, but I just get back focused on what we are doing day-to-day here with the club. I have to do my best to continue to play well. It is a long grind of a season, and I’ll continue to focus on that.
The news has come out, and things are official. We just move on from there.
Tavares on whether the 4 Nations snub serves as extra motivation:
Naturally, you are disappointed and motivated to play well. I am always that way, but in general, you just want to continue to push to be part of events and opportunities like that to play for Team Canada.
There are the Olympics next year and whatever happens after that. It is not what you really focus on, but if you play at a high level and show that you can be part of a winning group, you put yourself in that mix. Hopefully, those opportunities will still be there down the road.
Motivation-wise, it is always the same. I need to prove myself every day and work to be at my best to help the Leafs here and do everything we can to win.
Head-to-Head Stats: Maple Leafs vs. Capitals
In the 2024-25 regular season statistics, Washington holds the advantage in five out of five offensive categories, but Toronto holds the advantage in three out of five defensive categories.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#23 Matthew Knies — #34 Auston Matthews — #16 Mitch Marner
#29 Pontus Holmberg — #91 John Tavares — #88 William Nylander
#89 Nick Robertson — #39 Fraser Minten — #18 Steven Lorentz
#71 Nikita Grebenkin — #24 Connor Dewar —#75 Ryan Reaves
Defensemen
#95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson — #8 Chris Tanev
#44 Morgan Rielly — #51 Philippe Myers
#2 Simon Benoit — #25 Conor Timmins
Goaltenders
Starter: #41 Anthony Stolarz
#60 Joseph Woll
Extras: Marshall Rifai, Alex Nylander
Injured (day-to-day): Jake McCabe
Injured (IR): Max Domi, Bobby McMann, Jani Hakanpää
Injured (LTIR): Calle Jarnkrok, Max Pacioretty, David Kampf
Washington Capitals Projected Lines
Forwards
#24 Connor McMichael — #17 Dylan Strome — #43 Tom Wilson
#21 Aliaksei Protas — #80 Pierre-Luc Dubois — #16 Taylor Raddysh
#29 Hendrix Lapierre — Lars Eller — #88 Andrew Mangiapane
#22 Brandon Duhaime — #26 Nic Dowd — #63 Ivan Miroshnichenko
Defensemen
#42 Martin Fehervary — #74 John Carlson
#38 Rasmus Sandin — #3 Matt Roy
#6 Jakob Chychrun — #57 Trevor van Riemsdyk
Goaltenders
Starter: #79 Charlie Lindgren
#48 Logan Thompson
Injured: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, TJ Oshie, Sonny Milano
