Mercifully, the Mitch Marner saga is over.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have agreed to a sign-and-trade deal to send Marner to Vegas (eight years, $12 million AAV), and in return, the Leafs receive 6’4, 200-pound right-shot centerman Nicolas Roy (28 years of age). TSN’s Bob McKenzie is reporting that the trade is one-for-one.
It’s certainly not Mikko Rantanen, Noah Dobson, or some of the other potential trades that leaked out over the past 12 months, but it’s not nothing, either. Fetching a bona fide NHL center signed for two more years at $3 million is, truthfully, a great haul at this point, considering Marner was hours away from free agency.
It doesn’t fully make up for the organization not trading him earlier and returning proper value, but it’s a decent bit of work at this stage of the game by Brad Treliving, who appeared to squeeze any remaining leverage he could to salvage some value for the asset. Last summer, Jake Guentzel’s rights netted the Carolina Hurricanes a third-round pick. The Leafs are acquiring a solid NHL center signed for two more years at a more-than-reasonable $3 million salary.
A final word on Mitch Marner
At this point, there isn’t much to write that hasn’t already been written about Marner. I don’t want to waste too many more words on the player.
Most notably, as we’ve written about many times in this space, the Leafs‘ loaded-up top line wasn’t fully worth the squeeze. We will hear a million comments about the Leafs losing a 102-point player this summer, but the reality is the Matthews-Marner line outscored opponents 36-23 over the full regular season at five-on-five. It was the 29th-best goal differential among lines that spent 200+ minutes together, and they didn’t exactly dominate the run of play, either. I wouldn’t call them a definitive top 10 line in the league last season.
The Leafs as a team were routinely out-possessed, and it’s not like their top line regularly swung momentum and tilted the ice back the other way. They were every bit a part of the Panthers running up the first 25(!) shot attempts of Game 7 — really, they were more to blame than the others, given their pay grade, responsibilities/minutes, and pedigree.
The Leafs need Auston Matthews to be fully healthy, and from there, they can fill the other wing spot beside Matthews and Matthew Knies quite capably/easily. The 6’3 first-line center is clearly the biggest difference maker, not the winger.
As long as Matthews is healthy — a big if, and everything is for naught if he isn’t — the state of the team’s top line isn’t particularly worrisome. It’s the rest of the lineup that’s a far bigger question mark for me, and on that note, let’s jump into the player the Leafs just acquired.
Nicolas Roy
Roy is 28 years old and a 6’4 right-handed center. The Leafs previously had no full-time right-handed centermen on the team.
Over his career, Roy has averaged .46 points per game in 14:56 of ice time per night. Last season, he scored 15 goals and 31 points in 71 games while playing 15:13/game. He’s a credible top-nine forward in the league and a proper center, too. He’s recorded positive possession metrics, won his minutes in goal share in five of his six seasons, and come out ahead in expected goals at five-on-five in every NHL season, despite often defensive usage.
Vegas deployed Roy purely as a defensive checker last season on their third line. His usage relative to his teammates stands alone:
Roy’s played a few seasons with more “two-way” usage, and he’s also produced 41- and 39-point seasons, so depending on how the rest of the lineup and offseason moves shake out, Roy would give Craig Berube several options.
Roy is legitimately solid defensively and is a prototypical checking center with size, although he has never featured as a top penalty killer on Vegas. Last playoffs, the Leafs featured a checking line with Lorentz-Laughton-Jarnkrok. They could feasibly pencil in Roy to center this line and shift Scott Laughton over to the left wing, with Calle Jarnkrok remaining on the other side. It would free up the Leafs’ top players for more offensive opportunities compared to last season, when Berube hard-matched the top two lines almost exclusively.
Alternatively, the Leafs could find out if Roy fits as a defensive-minded center beside William Nylander, who doesn’t need much beside him to produce. Nylander has spent large periods over the years with centers far worse than Roy. While Roy isn’t speedy enough to keep up with Nylander, he’s big enough to work the dirty areas and just skilled enough to move the puck offensively and finish some chances.
There has been a lot of chatter about the Leafs no longer viewing John Tavares as a full-time 2C anymore, and while Roy isn’t a true 2C, he’s a different type of center who they could use to spread out the wealth while asking Tavares to drive a different line.
Long story short, we can envision the Leafs getting creative with their forward group — depending on who else they add — while their two stars anchor the overall unit. It has the potential to come together nicely.
Like most centers, Roy can also move to the wing if need be. That’s a potential option as well, as there are only two right-handed right-wingers on the Leafs’ roster at the moment.
Roy is a solid NHLer at a good age on a good contract. He’s easily capable of moving up and down the lineup and is a true center, giving the Leafs additional versatility within their forward group.
Additionally, when it comes to adding pieces that align with Berube’s style of play, Roy fits the bill. The 6’4 Quebec native gives the Leafs another big-bodied forward to go along with Matthew Knies, Bobby McMann, Auston Matthews, and potentially Steven Lorentz and/or Max Pacioretty if one or both are retained.
The Leafs’ Roster Picture
With Roy in the fold, there are 12 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goalies under contract, with $6.9 million available in cap space.
The above cap space and forward count also include David Kampf (but not Ryan Reaves). This trade only makes Kampf even more redundant, so it stands to reason he will probably be moved after the Leafs pay his July 1 signing bonus. Either way, though, the Leafs still have ample room to make a big splash, even if they don’t move additional dollars off their cap sheet.
If the goal is to get bigger, deeper, and control play better while knowing Marner was leaving, this is a small step in the right direction and a salvageable return for a pending UFA. There’s still significant work ahead, and we’ll see how Brad Treliving fills out the top of the Leafs’ lineup, but this move should aid in the goal of making the forward group deeper.
