As we approach the 20-game checkpoint of the season, the Maple Leafs currently own a record under .500, the second-worst points percentage in the Eastern Conference, and the second-worst goal differential.
The 8-9-2 record has been fully earned to date, and understandably, the pitchforks are out. The Leafs haven’t played well or even attempted to play a good brand of hockey.
All of that said, I’ll start with this: I’m not ready to declare it a lost season just yet. There are a few reasons why, and the first one has very little to do with the Leafs: The East hasn’t been particularly good.
By point total, Boston is currently leading the Atlantic Division on the back of an eight-game winning streak. They’ve been plucky, but I’m not buying what they’re selling yet. They’ve recorded the worst expected goals percentage at five-on-five in the East as of this writing.
The Red Wings are in second place thanks to a winning streak of their own, but they are already returning to earth and are in the red in goal differential despite a decent start. The Canadiens, who have lost three in a row, are in third place and are dealing with a collection of significant injuries.
Ottawa has done pretty well without Brady Tkachuk, and I view them as a problem. Tampa Bay has been really good (7-3 in their last 10) after a poor start, and we have to assume Florida will roar to life if they get fully healthy or close to it (who knows how that all shakes out).
We know Carolina is good. New Jersey recently lost Jack Hughes to injury for at least a month and maybe two. After those two teams, who is next? Pittsburgh? One of the New York teams? Philadelphia? Washington is struggling and will be without Pierre-Luc Dubois for most of the season.
Even with the Leafs playing mediocre hockey, they’re four to six points back of most opponents. They are a week of getting healthy and playing well away from getting back in good standing. Make it two good weeks, and they would likely be firmly inside a divisional playoff spot.
My other reason for maintaining some degree of optimism is a bit more convoluted. It basically boils down to the fact that while the Leafs haven’t played well at all yet this season, they will get both of their starting goalies back together for the first time this week. Better goaltending alone can solve a lot, in theory. The Leafs rank 29th in five-on-five save percentage.
That aside, the Leafs have been borderline unwatchable for most of the season. It hasn’t been an enjoyable product on the ice, and yet they are still within arm’s reach of a solid playoff spot.
The glass-half-full view is that the team has nowhere to go but up, while the glass-half-empty view is that this is simply who the Leafs are. Ultimately, it comes down to whether the organization has the fortitude to pull this together.
For years, the Leafs were elite at controlling play and winning the scoring chance battle. All of the top teams, season after season, excel in those areas. The Panthers and Hurricanes succeed each season because they possess the puck a lot; they do it in different ways, but the bottom line is that they own the puck. Since Craig Berube took over behind the bench, the Leafs have steadily trended down in this regard.
From the beginning of last season until now, Toronto is 30th in five-on-five shot attempt share and 25th in expected goals. Their initial dip can be attributed to injuries last November, but as the season progressed and they got healthier, it only steadily worsened.
The Leafs were regularly outplayed but kept winning games, and there was no real urgency to change the formula. We often heard Craig Berube remark that they weathered the storm after getting dominated for a period or two. In the playoffs, it culminated in a Game 7 where the Panthers out-attempted the Leafs 25-0 to start the game. As seen in the Amazon Prime series, Berube again noted between periods that the team had weathered the storm; this is a Leafs team that won its division and earned home ice so they could make it to Game 7 and “weather the storm?”
All offseason, we noted that the team’s five-on-five play needed to improve and they needed to possess the puck more this season. But it was never really a talking point for the coaching staff. Berube was seemingly asked about this only once, by Jonas Seigel, and provided an answer that revolved around forechecking (speaks for itself there).
It’s perhaps unsurprising, then, that it has been more of the same this season. It has taken the results tanking of late for Berube — for really the first time as Leafs coach — to simply state the team needs to possess the puck more.
Is Berube capable of fixing it, though? He’s the one who spearheaded this defensive shell, rope-a-dope type system to begin with. Right now, only one forward on the entire roster has been on the ice for more shot attempts for than against at five-on-five: Easton Cowan.
The coaching staff should face significant scrutiny, and while the season is still salvageable in the standings, it’s fair to wonder if they’re the right group to lead the team out of this rut. It’s “early,” but the Leafs have already played 100 games under Berube, and their play has steadily trended down throughout his tenure. He hasn’t really shown the inclination to prioritize or fix these underlying issues.
Sure, we should be mindful of letting players off the hook, and recognize that those playing the game on the ice aren’t necessarily holding up their end of the bargain. But we also must be mindful of the Leafs’ structure and systems, and whether the players are placed in a position to succeed. They can’t even break into the zone on the power play at this point.
When Berube was hired, the coaching market was slim pickings. Short of hiring Joel Quenneville — which MLSE seemed very unlikely to do from a corporate PR standpoint — it was simply a poor coaching cycle in the summer of 2024. Berube was one of eight coaches hired; the others were Sheldon Keefe, Lindy Ruff, Dean Evason, Travis Green, Ryan Warsofsky, Dan Bylsma, and Scott Arniel. It’s hard to argue the Leafs missed out on a better alternative, given the best one there (Keefe) was someone they fired, and one of them has already been dismissed (Bylsma).
As of this second, though, we can easily argue that better coaches are freely available. It’s a ruthless move after winning a division last season, but successful organizations make ruthless decisions all the time in pursuit of winning.
After taking the Oilers to the Western Conference Finals, followed by a second-round appearance in a 109-point season, Jay Woodcroft was fired due to a slow start the following season. Edmonton has been to back-to-back Cup Finals since.
The Florida Panthers fired Andrew Brunette after he won the President’s Trophy and oversaw the team winning a playoff series for the first time since 1996. They didn’t think he was right, though, and hired Paul Maurice. They’ve been to three straight Cup Finals since then and are the back-to-back Cup champs.
Those franchises identified that it was not working, or looking like it should, and quickly pulled the trigger. The Leafs have been trending the wrong way in this system for 100 games and counting, and just now the head coach started talking about the need to possess the puck more.
On paper, I think this Leafs team is a lot better than they’ve shown. There are lots of quality, established NHLers on a team that just about everyone rated as a playoff club just a month and change ago. Now, they look disorganized, can’t break out cleanly or sustain offensive-zone time, and the player group is suddenly bad? I don’t buy it.
The hopeful take would be that maybe for the first time in his tenure, the coach is now prioritizing what actually wins sustainably in this league. Sometimes, it requires the proverbial “night is darkest before the dawn” to inspire real change. The Leafs were too content to get outplayed, rely on goaltending, and ride a few hot shooters last season. When a team is winning, it’s resistant to change.
Now, the Leafs aren’t winning, and change is clearly required. It has taken them too long to arrive at this realization, but they at least seem minimally aware of the issues now.
There’s a long way to go, and it’s getting late early, but it’s not too late to turn it around yet. Can the coaching staff make the necessary adjustments? Will the players buy in? Something has to give eventually.
