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Why change what’s working? Straight into the notes from tonight’s 4-1 win over the St. Louis Blues.

– Who had the Leafs going 6-0-0 against Dallas (x2), LA, St. Louis (x2) and Nashville in the first half of the season? This team has put together an extended run of good hockey and would be on the playoff brink with better goaltending earlier in the season. As it stands, they’re six points out with a game in hand.

– The Leafs’ fourth line’s steep territorial edge over the Blues’ bottom group was a difference maker in the game, as they tilted the ice consistently throughout and wound up drawing the powerplay (via a roughing call on Brad Boyes in front of the Blues net) that produced the goal that was the difference maker for the Leafs. Mark Arcobello’s 88% mark on the dot helped the cause.

MatchupTOICFCACF%
Brad Boyes vs. Kyle Brodziak7:0011379%
Brad Boyes vs. Dimitrij Jaskin6:5111379%
Brad Boyes vs. Ryan Reaves7:0011379%
Shawn Matthias vs. Kyle Brodziak7:0010377%
Shawn Matthias vs. Dimitrij Jaskin6:519375%
Shawn Matthias vs. Ryan Reaves6:4910377%
Mark Arcobello vs. Kyle Brodziak6:399375%
Mark Arcobello vs. Dimitrij Jaskin6:199375%
Mark Arcobello vs. Ryan Reaves6:279375%

– Peter Holland’s shot is one of his best assets, and just as there were examples of him using it to good effect tonight – including the game winner, followed by a rocket off the crossbar, both on the powerplay — there were a couple of examples earlier on, at 5v5, of how he can sometimes choose to take the puck away from good goal scoring positions in preference of the perfect play that never develops. Overall, though, his seven shots on goal is a promising sign and is a part of an encouraging trend of late — he’s up to 19 shots on goal in his last five. His start to the season, which included a few healthy scratches, saw him produce just 21 shots in 15 games.

– This wasn’t the most exhilarating game by casual-fan standards, but it was played at a good pace and it was fun to watch the matchups chess match taking place between two of the game’s best head coaches who are very familiar with one another. Here were the splits from the big matchup of the evening:

MatchupTOICFCACF%
Nazem Kadri vs. Paul Stastny13:15111838%
Nazem Kadri vs. Alex Steen13:35121840%
Nazem Kadri vs. Vladimir Tarasenko14:38112035%
Leo Komarov vs. Paul Stastny11:42101737%
Leo Komarov vs. Alex Steen12:36121741%
Leo Komarov vs. Vladimir Tarasenko13:27111841%
Michael Grabner vs. Alex Steen12:24101540%
Michael Grabner vs. Paul Stastny12:42101638%
Michael Grabner vs. Vladimir Tarasenko13:16101737%
Morgan Rielly vs. Paul Stastny12:35111739%
Morgan Rielly vs. Alex Steen12:29111838%
Morgan Rielly vs. Vladimir Tarasenko13:07101934%
Matt Hunwick vs. Paul Stastny12:45111739%
Matt Hunwick vs. Alex Steen11:1291636%
Matt Hunwick vs. Vladimir Tarasenko12:29101836%

The Kadri line — along with the Hunwick-Rielly pairing — got buried in the first period especially by the Steen, Stastny and Tarasenko unit, and didn’t have a good night on possession overall. But they survived the night defensively – they won’t make the possession numbers look pretty, but Komarov made a number of crucial plays simply getting pucks out when the pressure was mounting — and then came away with the game-clinching goal on the counterattack off a great shift by Nazem Kadri to win a battle at the blueline, beat Paul Stastny up the ice, and score on a second effort on his own rebound. After a tough night of getting beat up in the faceoff circle by one of the league’s best on the dot in Stastny, you have to respect the comeback effort from Kadri, sticking with it and coming up with the faceoff win vs. Stastny leading to Holland’s PP goal, followed by a big scoring shift with five minutes to go.

– Neither team looked surprised by what the other was bringing to the table, as you would expect from two head coaches well known for their detailed preparation, and who have coached against each other out West for many years when not sharing a bench for Team Canada. The Blues worked low to high off the cycle as they do so well; a couple of times it broke the Leafs down and should’ve led to a St. Louis goals, with Brouwer and Statsny missing on empty nets. Overall, though, the Leafs kept this one dead even against one of the League’s top possession teams, keeping a clean sheet at even strength to go along with 20-19 shot count (for STL), 38-38 shot attempt count, and 19-19 scoring chance count at even strength at the time of the 3-1 goal.

– Two assists, three shots, one screen on the Holland goal, six hits in 20 minutes of work for Leo Komarov. A new career high in points to boot (27) . The heart and soul of the team at the moment.

– JvR’s goal was goofy, no doubt, but when you’ve got seven goals in your last ten games and you’re shooting 17% over that span, it’s a pretty good sign you’re making some of your own luck. JvR has shot 11.3% since he was traded to the Leafs, and he’s scored on 11.8% of 118 shots this season (14 goals in 37 games; 31-goal pace over 82). He’s averaged 4.1 shots/game since his hot streak began ten games ago.

– Not to take away from a good couple of wins over a team that’s had the Leafs’ number in recent years – and who were undefeated in the Maple Leaf Gardens/Air Canada Centre since the late 70s, remarkably — but it’s worth noting this is not the same Blues team we’re used to offensively. They’re bottom 10 in 5v5 offensive production (GF/60) this season, which is a far cry from the Blues team of the past few years. Early exits in the playoffs can really do a GM’s head in, can’t they (*cough* Oshie for Brouwer *cough*)?


Even Strength Shot Attempts Chart

evstrengthshotattemptsvsblues


Even Strength Scoring Chances Chart

evenstrengthscoringchanesvsblues


Shot Location Chart

Screenshot 2016-01-03 00.38.46


Leafs Player Stats – Toronto 4 vs. St. Louis 1

PLAYERGAP+/-PIMSHITSBKSFO%PP TOISH TOITOI
M. Hunwick01120122-0:000:2020:39
D. Phaneuf00000131-5:110:0021:55
P. Parenteau00010010-4:070:0017:37
J. Lupul00000001-2:230:0015:03
J. van Riemsdyk10110300-3:540:0016:11
S. Matthias000001200%0:000:007:21
P. Holland1010072027%3:040:0018:57
D. Winnik00002120100%0:000:0014:38
B. Boyes00000201-3:220:0010:54
M. Arcobello0000011088%0:000:008:18
M. Grabner11220310-0:000:2017:12
T. Bozak0001012268%4:290:0016:41
N. Kadri1011043043%2:470:0021:23
M. Rielly00010311-0:270:0023:00
R. Polak00020060-0:000:2016:32
L. Komarov0222036150%3:120:2020:24
J. Gardiner01102111-2:590:0019:19
M. Marincin00010121-0:000:0012:25

Mike Babcock Post Game Presser

 

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Alec Brownscombe is the founder and editor of MapleLeafsHotStove.com, where he has written daily about the Leafs since September of 2008. He's published five magazines on the team entitled "The Maple Leafs Annual" with distribution in Chapters and newsstands across the country. He also co-hosted "The Battle of the Atlantic," a weekly show on TSN1200 that covered the Leafs and the NHL in-depth. Alec is a graduate of Trent University and Algonquin College with his diploma in Journalism. In 2014, he was awarded Canada's Best Hockey Blogger honours by Molson Canadian. You can contact him at alec.brownscombe@mapleleafshotstove.com.