After earning a least a point in 14 of their last 15 games, the Maple Leafs have climbed to sixth in the NHL in points percentage.
Earlier today, we discussed the team’s needs on defense. Let’s dive into the rest of the notebook, starting with the divisional picture.
Notes
– The only two teams currently ahead of the Maple Leafs in the Eastern Conference are the Bruins and Rangers. Winning the division is very much within reach. Boston is five points up on the Leafs with a game in hand for Toronto, and the Bruins are finally showing some signs of fallibility (5-3-2 in their last 10, and their goal differential is now a more normal +21; the Leafs’ is +16).
I’ve talked about winning this division before and it is often met by responses suggesting it doesn’t mean anything for the playoffs, but the reality is that it is meaningful. Boston and Florida are excellent teams, and after those two clubs plus the Leafs, there is a clear dropoff. The prospect of playing Florida and Boston just to reach the Eastern Conference Finals is daunting, and if it can be avoided, it does help the Leafs’ odds. This should be the goal of the regular season, and it is currently within reach.
– Of course, playing Chicago twice and Columbus once while only collecting two of a possible six points in those three games are the sorts of missed opportunities against inferior opposition that hurt their cause in a division with little margin for error.
– Earlier in the season, Justin Bourne cut some video of Noah Gregor settling for shots from distance instead of driving the net. Against Pittsburgh, Gregor had a step on Erik Karlsson and decided to do just that, dropping his shoulder and driving the net hard. The puck went in the net and should have been called a goal, but it was waved off and the Leafs didn’t challenge it. Over the past few weeks, there have been some other examples of Gregor taking the puck to the net instead of settling for shots from the top of the circle off the rush. That would be a welcome and productive development in his game.
– Up 5-0 against Pittsburgh, with plenty of time left in the game, it was nice to see the Leafs battle hard and support Martin Jones in his shutout bid. All within the second period of the game, Gregor laid a big (painful) shot block on a Graves one-timer, Conor Timmins laid out for a big shot block when Joseph walked in clean from the point, and Tyler Bertuzzi left his feet to block a rebound play that was nearly an empty-net chance. It really sucks to blow a shutout while up big in a game, and the players were committed to seeing it out for Jones.
– I am not going to analyze what’s happening with the Penguins overall, but I couldn’t help but watch the game on Saturday and think that Pittsburgh looked just like the Leafs did in a good chunk of their big games under Kyle Dubas where they came up empty with little pushback. Off the top of my head, the Tavares return to the Island stands out as well as half the Canadiens and Blue Jackets playoffs series and nearly every elimination game.
Pittsburgh can downplay it, but it was a big game – Dubas’ return to Toronto on Hockey Night in Canada during the dad’s trip – and they got completely waxed.
– In this space this season, we’ve been talking about the need for the Leafs to show a sense of occasion. The recent game against the Islanders stands out even though they lost in overtime. They stuck with it and scored a dramatic tying goal against an elite goalie who was clearly on his game against a good Islanders team that two days earlier had snapped the Kings’ record-breaking start on the road.
The team followed it up the next night (when tired in a back-to-back) by handling the league-leading Rangers to conclude their dad’s trip. They’ve lost in extra time to the Bruins twice, but they battled hard in regulation against them in two really good games and did the same against Florida as well (in the first game against the Panthers, the Leafs’ roster was really out of sorts). They’ve also beaten Tampa twice already.
– In their first meetings with both teams this season, the Leafs lost to Pittsburgh and Nashville – two rather lacklustre performances against teams they should beat – but in the rematches, Toronto completely dominated them. Nobody will care if the Leafs come up empty again in the playoffs, but this is part of the process of building toward success in the postseason.
Quotes
“Me and Mitchy are very familiar with each other, so that was nice. Felt like the old days.”
– Max Domi on playing with Marner after a three-point night
Truthfully, I can’t believe it took an illness to see Max Domi and Mitch Marner finally reunited. Lo and behold, they produced together.
“He’s a great open-ice hitter. You’ve seen him multiple times. He catches people with their heads down and watching pucks. He’s done a couple of plays like that this year that make you happy he’s on your team.”
– Mitch Marner on Jake McCabe after he leveled Ryan Lindgren
When the Leafs added Luke Schenn last trade deadline, he brought a real physicality to the team. When Schenn left, it was fair to wonder what kind of jam they’d possess on the blue line if any. Jake McCabe has really stepped up in this department, and Simon Benoit playing regularly has helped as well. That’s two of the team’s three D pairings that the opposition has to keep its head on a swivel against.
It is the same on our breakouts. We can do different things. Forwards can help out to take some pressure off of our defense and ease the forecheck that we are facing a little bit to help our D and help our breakouts. This is where we need to do a better job.
– Sheldon Keefe on Ilya Samsonov’s recent struggles vs. Columbus
We referenced it earlier today, but breakouts have been a clear problem this season in large part due to the constant shuffle on defense. In his quote above, Keefe was explaining how the team can help its goalies out with a team effort, including helping and supporting each other better on breakouts. In the game against the Islanders, in particular, they really struggled against a persistent forecheck for about half of the game.
Tweets of the Week
Scoring chance differential per game
(xG over 5% for and against)
Are we looking at a rematch? 👀📈 pic.twitter.com/9hxt9k8OdQ
— Meghan Chayka (@MeghanChayka) December 14, 2023
Territorially, the Leafs haven’t been controlled games at the level expected, but there is no question they can create offense with regularity, and it shows in their scoring-chance differential. We can see why the addition of a quality defenseman could theoretically really take the team to the next level.
Matthew Knies' Gordie Howe Hat-Trick pic.twitter.com/7k2v4rT9Pu
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) December 17, 2023
I mentioned last week that Matthew Knies has shown some real growth physically of late, including big hits against Ottawa and Nashville. On Saturday, he returned from an illness to notch his first Gordie Howe hat trick, including a real “power forward” goal as he breezed by the 6’5 Ryan Graves and drove the net.
Traditionally, power forwards take some time to develop (look at Mason Marchment or even Lawson Crouse, for example), but we’re seeing some signs from Knies that he’s on an expedited trajectory and could be a high-impact player sooner rather than later. In his rookie season, Knies is playing at a 22-goal, 41-point pace so far.
John Tavares' 1,000 Career Points:
1,054 Games
435 Goals
565 Assists
521 Points at Home
479 Points on Road
657 Even-Strength Points
337 Power-Play Points
6 Shorthanded Points#LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/2DKNb1tBZb— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) December 12, 2023
This was an incredible way for John Tavares to hit 1,000 points – and in front of his dad, no less. It’ll be a minor footnote on the whole sequence, but with the Leafs down and the goalie pulled, Tavares cleaned out the faceoff circle three times in a row to give the Leafs possession and a chance to create offense right away. He has the third-best faceoff percentage in the league (minimum 200 faceoffs). He has been a model of consistency. A hell of an achievement to hit 1,000 points in the NHL.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. One of my biggest priorities on defense is sorting out Jake McCabe’s partner. So far this season, the teammates he has shared the ice with the most are (in order) Nylander, Tavares, Bertuzzi, Marner, and Matthews.
Over a third of the way through the season, it is highly unusual not to see another defenseman in the top five most common teammates. Part of it is because McCabe and others have been injured, but they are finally getting healthy now. If the Leafs can settle McCabe with a partner on a pairing they trust, it makes the above conversation about building the defense and next steps much easier to work around.
I think I’d try McCabe with Conor Timmins first. They have already been taking offensive-zone faceoffs together at five-on-five, and it gives McCabe a righty to play with who is a puck mover. It gives the pairing a bit of a yin and yang between Timmins’ offensive skill and McCabe’s physicality as a defender.
Keefe won’t think this way as a coach — and rightfully so — but both players are signed through next season. It’d be nice to know if the Leafs have anything there.
2. Furthermore, when Brodie is healthy, I think I’d like to see Morgan Rielly – Timothy Liljegren get some run. The Rielly – Brodie pairing has been serviceable, but they aren’t doing anything eye-popping to the point where they should be permanently locked together. They are underwater in shot attempts and expected goals but ahead in actual goals by a modest margin of four. That’s with Matthews as their most common forward linemate. It’s nothing to write home about.
Maybe Rielly – Liljegren doesn’t work together, but it gives Rielly a righty as a partner. Liljegren is a little more mobile and skilled at this point in his career compared to Brodie. Should it work, it’s the type of pairing that opens up all sorts of possibilities for the team.
3. The knock-on effect of the pairings above is that TJ Brodie would slot into a defensive-zone third pairing. The first partner I’d try with Brodie is Simon Benoit. I’d be quick to give William Lagesson a look – this wouldn’t be something I’d set and run with – but I like the element of physicality Benoit brings to the table.
Brodie would have to be the puck mover, but the Benoit – McCabe pairing was scraping by in a top-four role, so playing Benoit with Brodie against lesser matchups could theoretically be quite effective while freeing up Rielly and – to a lesser extent – Timmins to be the offensive drivers from the defense (which the team still needs). It would also give them a bonafide veteran on each pairing, which is a nice luxury.
4. I think it’s also important to keep in mind that these pairings are all fluid depending on the situation. If the Leafs are up a goal late in the third period, I would not be trotting out a McCabe – Timmins pairing and Brodie would move up. The team has a lot of useful defensemen right now. It’s about optimizing their usage based on their strengths and weaknesses.
5. I think I’d start Martin Jones on Tuesday against the Rangers. He’s coming off a shutout and he beat the Rangers last week, so I’d just keep it rolling. It’s nothing against Ilya Samsonov – who I think got a bit of a raw deal to start the Columbus game – but you have to ride the hot hand when you’ve got it.
