The Maple Leafs reached the halfway mark of the season sitting first in the division (ICYMI, check out my deeper look at the Atlantic from yesterday), but they’ve now lost Jake McCabe to a presumed head injury.
In this week’s notebook, we’ll discuss the possibilities on defense without McCabe, Auston Matthews’ promising return, the team’s penalty-kill success and power-play concerns, appreciation for Chris Tanev, the emergence of a credible fourth line, Philippe Myers’ new contract, and much more.
Notes
– In Auston Matthews’ first shift of his return from injury against Boston, Elias Lindholm gave him a pretty healthy cross-check, and Matthews didn’t even acknowledge it. He has five points in two games since he returned, including eight shots on net, and played 20:13 in the second half of a back-to-back, where he notched an assist on the overtime winner. A few of those points resulted from engaging physically in tough areas and winning battles against some physically strong defensemen like Charlie McAvoy and Rasmus Ristolainen. We will see if the wear and tear of regular play takes a toll on him, but there’s no doubt this is easily the healthiest Matthews has looked all season.
– I wrote last week about the fourth line and one not coming together yet under two coaches (Lane Lambert and Craig Berube) who traditionally have had a good one in the league. Lo and behold, the Leafs‘ fourth line has its best week of the season.
Against the Islanders, they scored the game-winning goal, and against the Flyers, they scored one of the Leafs‘ two goals in regulation. All three players — Steven Lorentz, David Kampf, and Connor Dewar — contributed to a perfect penalty kill that went three-for-three on the night.
Nobody expects the fourth line to move the needle on a nightly basis, but that’s two of four games where they have changed the outcome. They’ve only played 32 minutes as a line, but all three players are good checkers individually, and if they can build as a checking fourth line, it’s a big development for this team to free up their skilled players more.
– With a full complement of forwards available for really the first time this season, the Leafs had David Kampf take defensive-zone faceoffs with Max Domi and Bobby McMann instead of leaving Nick Robertson with his regular linemates in those situations. Once the puck was out, Robertson came on. Against Boston, the Domi line was on for an icing, they couldn’t make the Kampf swap, and they immediately got scored on off a faceoff play.
The Domi line is up 8-5 in 5v5 goals, but they aren’t trusted defensively at all. In the same Boston game, they gave up a backside rush chance to Jordan Osterle with under four minutes left on a shift where Robertson turned the wrong way in neutral ice, curling to the boards as Pavel Zacha skated right through the middle of the neutral zone. Robertson then fell on a breakout and chased the puck, leading to a wide-open look. They were lucky a better player wasn’t on/Hampus Lindholm wasn’t healthy on that play.
Against the Flyers the next night, Robertson got stuffed on a one-handed attempt to get the puck out, later iced it, and separately made a bad change that led to a clean Flyers look. He played a season-low 8:44 in that game.
The offense is starting to roll, and the work ethic is there, but Robertson needs to be smarter defensively if he’s going to see regular ice time against better teams.
– It was nice to see three goals from defensemen over the past two games. You can see the far-side Leafs defensemen starting to activate a little bit more in-zone. They don’t necessarily join the rush much offensively — and the Leafs aren’t nearly as much of a rush team in general anymore — so the D need to get involved more within the offensive zone as Jake McCabe did when Marner had the puck in the high slot vs. Boston, and as Oliver Ekman-Larsson did as the Leafs fourth line crashed the net vs. Philadelphia. Changing from a rush team takes time; we’ll see if it’s just a blip on the radar or if they can build on it.
– Against the Bruins, the Leafs conceded three times right after scoring, similar to what happened a few weeks earlier against Washington (twice in that game). I went back and reviewed it, and all five times the Leafs scored, Mitch Marner was on in one way or another. After scoring, they tried various lines to build on the goal and were coughing it right back up.
The Leafs have a third line they don’t trust to play 200-foot hockey and a struggling second line right now (Nylander is mired in a seven-game goal-less drought). Eventually, they started turning to their fourth line over the weekend; at least they are dependable defensively, if nothing else. As the games tighten up, the team will need to sort this out.
– The Leafs’ penalty kill is still chugging along at eighth in the league. One thing they do really well: short shifts. Their forwards will take 25-second shifts if they can, simply getting it out and getting off to stay fresh. The Leafs’ forwards are super aggressive and empty the energy tank out there, pushing right to the half-walls and up to the point to close space. They usually falter when stuck on the ice and forced to retreat because they no longer have legs.
We have said it a ton over the years as the team has had some really poor PK units: Afford skilled players the time and space, and they will make you pay. Every NHL team has at least five skilled players. The Leafs use short shifts up front to keep the energy and pressure high.
– Something to monitor: Last season, the Leafs were one of the best teams in the league with their net empty. They scored 11 goals with their goalie out, which was tied for first in the league. They only gave up 13 the other way in these situations, and sitting just below even goals-for percentage with the net empty was the fourth-highest rate in the league. It was one of the big reasons they sent so many games to overtime (remember how big of a storyline that was at one point?).
This season, it has been a complete flip. They are one of the worst teams in the league with the empty net so far, getting outscored 12-2, the sixth-worst differential percentage. Only six teams have scored fewer than the Leafs’ two goals with the goalie out. Part of it is Matthews’ situation to this point; trying to score without the best goal scorer in the world makes it much more difficult, obviously. They are 17th in time on ice spent with their net empty, so they are middle of the pack there (it’s not exactly a rare occurrence).
– The above point is particularly noteworthy, knowing the Leafs were excellent there last season and very good on the power play in the regular season. They finished seventh on the PP, but it cratered at the end of the season through to the playoffs and cost Guy Boucher his job.
Marc Savard ultimately replaced Boucher, and now the team is worse with the empty net — where they have often looked like they don’t have a cohesive plan — and the power play is the worst it’s ever been in this era. Only once in this era have the Leafs finished outside the top 10 (16th), and right now, they aren’t even in the top half of the league (sitting 18th).
From poor entries to no real set plays or counter plays, the PP has not been sharp and instead has relied largely on individual brilliance to get by. There’s no getting around this; it’s not good enough across the board, and for a team that has largely struggled to score in the playoffs every spring, they need to start trending up here.
Quotes
“Coming here, I knew I was going to have to be patient. My goal from camp was just to make the team. Once you make the team, you have to be patient.
The mindset all year has been to take it day by day, show up with a good attitude, and work your boots off. That is kind of the mindset, and it still is. Just bring a good attitude to the rink and work hard. Good things will happen.”
– Philippe Myers on his approach this year, after landing a two-year extension
Similar to Benoit, Philippe Myers has done a commendable job of keeping his head down, working, and earning ice time. And just like Benoit, he was rewarded with a contract extension.
It’s a positive thing across the board that the Leafs are showing players if they come here and earn it, the organization will recognize it. Myers also noted there were other offers on the table this past offseason. I imagine we’ll see something similar play out with Steven Lorentz. If you don’t do well with it, it’s a Noah Gregor situation.
Myers is giving the team 17+ solid minutes per game so far and has been unlucky to be outscored 4-6 at five-on-five. He saved a few goals against the Flyers and Bruins, too. Against Boston, he tied up a backdoor play late in the third period, and against the Flyers, he blocked a shot that was definitely going in on the power play.
“I don’t know if I have ever seen a defenseman block as many shots as he does. And there is the composure. He never panics with the puck. If he doesn’t have a play, he eats it and grinds it out of the zone or grinds it to make a play later. He doesn’t ever panic. His head is up. He is a very intelligent player with his ability.
His ability is right here (points at his head) and right here (points at his heart). That is what he has.”
– Craig Berube on Chris Tanev
This is a really good note by Berube on Chris Tanev. At least once per game, he will have the puck with zero options and wait as long as possible to see if a breakout pass will develop, taking a hit to make a pass. Or he will eat the puck on the wall and wait for reinforcements. He’s so good at finding proper breakout outlets and makes a pass that’s hard to see developing on TV until he has already put it on someone’s tape.
There is a reason why Tanev has been excellent at driving possession up ice his entire career. This is not a case of watching an offensive defenseman fly around the ice or make backdoor plays, but it’s just as much fun to watch Tanev solve problems in the defensive zone to get the puck out cleanly. With the talent in front of him, he’s pacing for the second most productive season of his career, too.
“They’re an extremely good team this year. They’ve been building for a while now and have really kind of figured out the right way to play, the way they stick up for each other, compete for each other. They’re a different brand of hockey right now.”
– Brad Marchand on the Toronto Maple Leafs
I mean, he’s right.
Tweets of the Week
Four NHL teams have not lost when leading after two periods:#Leafs, 19-0-0
Wild, 16-0-0
Panthers, 15-0-0
Kraken, 9-0-0— Terry Koshan 🇺🇦 (@koshtorontosun) January 5, 2025
The Leafs have done an excellent job of locking games down so far. They can suffocate teams defensively when up in games, hanging back in their 1-2-2 neutral zone and protecting the house.
One thing that really stands out in this regard is how good they are at clearing the net, whether that’s bodies or the puck. They make it really difficult to get inside and are protecting leads well as a result.
Max Pacioretty HitsTape this season https://t.co/nbSjG4Md5t pic.twitter.com/SxGjoDUu5A
— Rink Rat Report (@RinkRatReport) January 6, 2025
In the offseason, the Leafs were sniffing around the veteran left-winger market and ultimately signed Max Pacioretty. Another player whose name came up often was James Van Riemsdyk, who signed for less money with Columbus after the Leafs signed Pacioretty.
While their production is roughly the same — Pacioretty at .43 points per game vs. .36 for JVR — Pacioretty is also labeling opponents weekly. JVR, as fans in Toronto all know, would not be doing that. Pacioretty has really added a nice element to the team.
The Maple Leafs have claimed D Dakota Mermis off waivers from Utah HC.
Mermis has been assigned to the Toronto Marlies (AHL).
— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) January 3, 2025
It made complete sense for the Leafs to reclaim Dakota Mermis. If no other team did, they could send him right down to the minors, and that’s exactly what happened.
When Utah originally claimed Mermis, we mentioned this was just the second player Brad Treliving has lost through waivers since taking over the GM job, and now he is back. Mermis was solid last season in the NHL, and a team can never have too many defensemen capable of taking a shift in the league.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. With Jake McCabe on IR, the easiest thing to do is reunite Oliver Ekman-Larsson with Chris Tanev and Simon Benoit with Conor Timmins. I’d like to see a bit more of a shake-up, though, because the OEL-Tanev pairing wasn’t particularly strong in terms of driving play up ice, and they didn’t really bring out the best in each other (OEL wasn’t potent offensively, and Tanev wasn’t dictating play up ice as he normally does).
I’d rather try Rielly-Tanev as a top pairing, considering they already saw time together and meshed much more naturally to me. It would then bump OEL to play with Myers while keeping the Benoit – Timmins pairing together.
There is still familiarity with two of those pairings, and I think the combo of Rielly-Tanev gives them the best possible pairing. But it’s possible the other two pairings won’t be good enough to allow them to keep Rielly and Tanev together, and Tanev shouldn’t be playing 22+ minutes at this point. Still, I’d like a longer look at this pairing.
2. On the penalty kill, I think I’d just move Benoit up to play with Tanev, and I’d have OEL play with Myers on the second unit, with Timmins as the fifth option. It might be a personal preference on my end, but I think lefties and righties need to be on their proper sides as much as possible on the PK. We have seen the difference over the past few seasons.
I also think this frees up Timmins to focus a little more on producing some offense. He is more talented than the seven points in 34 games he has produced thus far. With Rielly on one pairing, Timmins on one pairing, and OEL on the other, the Leafs should have a producer on each pair if Timmins can get rolling a little bit.
3. If you aren’t dressing Ryan Reaves for the rematch against the Flyers, that pretty well sums it up, doesn’t it?
4. At forward, I think I’d simply flip Bobby McMann and Max Pacioretty.
I like the jam Pacioretty is bringing, and he is good in spot duty up the lineup, but he’s playing at a 35-point pace overall. Since a hot start to the season with six points in eight games, he has just six points in his past 20 games. McMann, conversely, is producing like a legitimate top-six forward, pacing for nearly 30 goals over an 82-game season.
Beyond the production, I like McMann’s speed alongside the speedy Nylander and slower Tavares rather than saddling Nylander with two slower players. Nylander is also slumping and needs a bit more of a boost, which McMann can provide as a linemate at this point; plus, McMann is strong defensively.
I’m not sure the third line will be good enough, but it will change anyway by the time playoffs roll around.
5. I think I’d start Joseph Woll every game this week. The Leafs play every other night, which will be three games in five nights before a two-day break to reset. Woll did it this past week and was very good, and they need to keep pushing him (within reason) to be the guy while Anthony Stolarz is out injured.
I understand the trepidation around Woll’s ability to stay healthy, but he will never push through it if he is handled with kid gloves instead of being asked to play a standard workload for a goalie. Yes, it’s three games in five days, but if we zoom out a bit, it’s three games in eight days overall. He’s 26 years old. This isn’t a big ask.
