Happy NHL trade deadline week!
At this point, it’s a matter of when and who — rather than if — the Atlantic-leading Leafs add to their roster, and we’ll be ready to break down all the moves and ramifications when that happens.
In the meantime, let’s jump right to an extended notes edition of the Leafs Notebook.
Notes
– The Leafs‘ defense has seven goals in the last seven games. It has inched them up the rankings slightly to 25th overall. Middle-of-the-road defenses have anywhere from four to six more goals than them. Before this run of offense, we discussed how they were starting to activate more within in-zone sequences to create offense.
The goal against Pittsburgh was a good example. Conor Timmins looped high, and the right defenseman ended up swinging high and to the left to open space. When he took the pass, he had ample time and space to make a play and score.
On Morgan Rielly’s goal against Boston, the Leafs were in an umbrella setup offensively, with Matthew Knies on the half-wall, Oliver Ekman-Larsson up top, and Morgan Rielly pushing down on the far side, where he took the pass and made a play.
Amazingly, none of the goals have come off the rush in this run of defense scoring. We’ll see how this translates to playoffs; one issue the Leafs have continually faced each spring is their inability to produce from the point outside of Rielly.
– The Leafs’ depth scorers have really stepped up since the 4 Nations break lifted:
- Pontus Holmberg has six points in five games
- Nick Robertson has five points in five games
- Max Domi has four points in five games
- David Kampf and Steven Lorentz each have two points
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe have three points in three games, while Chris Tanev recorded three in three before getting hurt.
– Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Rielly have six points each while John Tavares has five and Mitch Marner has four. It’s not like the top guys aren’t producing and have been carried by the depth players, but when the Leafs receive secondary scoring, they are really tough to beat because their top guys produce so consistently.
– Morgan Rielly had a really good road trip prior to the 4 Nations tournament and has picked up where he left off since the tournament ended. He has 10 points in his last nine games overall. February was his highest time on ice per game month of the season at 22:11, and he looks far more comfortable creating offense in this system in-zone rather than relying on off-the-rush attacking.
– The domino effect of Pontus Holmberg performing well up the lineup positively impacts the team overall because Bobby McMann can help drive the third line. We’ve talked before about Holmberg in this forechecking role with skill players, as he does a good job disrupting breakouts with his speed. He’s also strong, with a fire hydrant build. Brad Marchand thought he had him lined up in Boston and got stonewalled.
One thing that’s starting to stand out is that Holmberg is a legitimately good passer. He made a nice backside pass to Timmins before he scored, set up Tavares in front from behind the net versus Boston, had the same play to Nylander versus Carolina, and also set Nylander up far-side versus Chicago. This can somewhat balance out his struggles to shoot: set up others and go to the net.
– That’s how Holmberg scored the tying goal against Boston, by driving the net after a really good play off the wall by Robertson to torch Nikita Zadorov. I loved that the coaching staff put out a new line when the top guys were clearly gassed (Marner said he was “breathing out of his eyeballs” after and barely knew who scored). There were too many times under the previous staff when the stars had nothing left in the tank but the coaching staff kept them out anyway, basically signalling that these are the only players they believed could score.
It’s a big confidence boost for the coach to send them out in a critical situation on the road, against a hated division rival, and for them to come through with a big goal. The embrace between Holmberg and Robertson after the goal said it all. It’s a little but big thing over an 82-game season.
– Against the Rangers, Auston Matthews lost an offensive-zone faceoff, then didn’t track his center matchup — Mika Zibanejad — down the ice well, and Zibanejad scored. Against the Penguins, he got badly beat by Rickard Rakell for a goal against 10 seconds into the period. He set up the game-winner against the Rangers and scored against the Penguins, and they ultimately won both games, but the bar is extremely high when he’s the highest-paid player in the league, and it has felt like strong play has come in and ebbed and flowed, at best. I couldn’t tell you the last time he completely took over and dominated a game. There’s a whole other level to be found here, and if he does find it, the top-of-the Atlantic Leafs have a much higher ceiling than this.
– I did not realize this until podcast partner Nick Ashbourne flagged it last week: Simon Benoit’s hit count is way down. If it has felt like he has been less physical this season, it’s because he has been. He recorded 246 hits in 64 games last season, which tracked for 13.38 per 60 minutes. So far this season? 152 in 56 games, or 9.89 per 60 minutes.
That’s a notable downtick, and the reality is that he doesn’t bring enough elsewhere to not provide a physical wrecking ball. In 120 games as a Leaf, his one goal was an empty-netter, and he has nine points. He’s struggling on the penalty kill (more on that below) and when moving the puck in general. His ice time is down around 45 seconds per game from last season, and he has just 36 shots on net (after 52 in 64 last season).
– Matthew Knies scored a beautiful buzzer-beater against the Penguins, and I was really taken by his release. His shooting technique has really grown since he entered the league.
Here is his first-ever regular-season goal, which came on a clean shot. He’s upright, and his wrists snap the puck nicely into the top corner while his legs barely move until he releases the puck.
Compare it to his breakaway goal against the Penguins. He leans hard on his stick and has a whippy shot from the impact of the flex. He kicks his off leg out hard to generate power and torque before releasing the puck, and the shot explodes off his stick. Matthews and Nylander have similar shooting techniques, with powerful leg kick-outs and whippy sticks accelerating the puck.
Knies is shooting 23.7 percent this year, and while he might ride it out as a hot year overall, it’s not sustainable year-to-year. That said, his shot has really improved, and he knows how to cause havoc in front of the net, which is usually a recipe to be a really good goal scorer.
Quotes
“I’m sure [Marner and Tavares are] getting a lot more attention for it, but I think they’re on the same page as me. I don’t think we’re worried about it; we all want to stay, and we’re all going to try to figure out how we can manage to all stay here.”
– Matthew Knies, on him, Marner, and Tavares dealing with their expiring contracts
This isn’t exactly the one of the three that you want to hear say, “We want to stay, and we’re going to work together to figure out how to,” as the Leafs own Knies’ rights as a pending RFA compared to the other two, but it’s a noteworthy comment nonetheless. First and foremost, these three players — and the overall core — need to prove this year that it’s worth keeping them together beyond this season. If they do, the Leafs have the money to run it back.
“I want to be here, so I’m fine. Yeah, I don’t think about that stuff…But desperate times call for desperate measures. Fight or flight. You want to survive? You want to play in the game? You gotta elevate… When it’s desperate, I’ll be physical. I’m wanting to get into the game, be impactful… Last year, the most I played was 20 games (in a row), then I got scratched, shifting in and out. I hate that. So, I made a decision that I want to play every single game. Like I said, back to the desperation thing, I want to be in the lineup every game. I want to be an impactful player. And so far, it’s been working.”
– Nick Robertson on wanting to stay in Toronto and working to find ways to contribute by playing more physical and desperate
I thought it was particularly interesting that Nick Robertson flagged his games-played mark (in a row) from last season, as it was a clear source of frustration for him, even if he did score after getting healthy scratched with regularity. Truthfully, he can’t ask for anything more than he has been given this season. He has been a full-on regular, getting steady second-unit power-play time, playing with reasonable offensive linemates, and when he struggles, Craig Berube has given him tons of rope to work through it.
Now, it appears Robertson is starting to learn from those experiences and coming out better for it on the other side. There’s no denying his shot, but he can’t score every game and needs to find a way to impact games when he’s not scoring. Robertson has a really good motor—he can annoy opponents with it—and the third line seems to be buying into their scoring role. It has been a positive development as the season has progressed.
“You have to determine fact from fiction. What players are actually available? If you look around, there are still a lot of teams in the race. If I had to categorize it, it is busy, and you are talking to lots of guys, but in comparison to years past, it is a little bit slower. There are a lot more teams that maybe haven’t declared yet. There are lots of conversations going on.”
– Brad Treliving on the trade market
So far, there doesn’t seem to be many players, let alone quality ones, available on the trade market. Far too many teams appear to think they have a real chance of making the playoffs and are resisting selling, while the few that are selling seem to be asking for ridiculous prices, given it’s a seller’s market. That will need to change at some point this week; the Leafs aren’t looking to make “hockey trades” where they move out their own roster players, and they don’t have many picks to peddle.
Tweets of the Week
Percentage of starts with positive goals saved above expected = Quality Start %
1. Stolarz
2. Thompson
3. Woll
4. Hellebuyck
5. Kuemper
(Min. 20 Starts) https://t.co/l5SWoJbxGV— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) March 1, 2025
It has been ages since we’ve seen the Leafs receive goaltending like this.
Maple Leafs tie franchise record with their 7th straight win in games decided past regulation pic.twitter.com/eVvRRCZBzS
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) March 2, 2025
The Leafs have been really good in overtime this season. They’ve only lost twice in overtime, compared to 10 and 11 in the previous two seasons. Some of it is luck-driven, but there were many times where they were just sloppy and made unnecessary risks at 3v3, and they are playing a lot more maturely in these situations now.
Congratulations to Borya Valis on signing a 3-Year Entry Level Contract with the Toronto #LeafsForever ! #WeAreGoldStar! pic.twitter.com/QQBYXRiweA
— Dan Milstein (@HockeyAgent1) March 1, 2025
We said this last year when the Leafs signed Jacob Quillan and acquired Cade Webber. Given their lack of draft capital, they need to get creative and try to mine diamonds in the rough.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. I think I’d really take a run at splitting up the power play units at this point. The top unit scored against Boston, but it came on a broken play off a disjointed entry. It was their first power-play goal as a five-man unit since Knies scored on a power play against Edmonton on February 1. The one game over the past nine where the top unit showed well was against Calgary when they potted two, and Marner didn’t play in that game. In those same nine games, the second unit has four power-play goals, so they are actually getting outscored by a unit generally composed of McMann-Domi-Robertson-OEL-Rielly.
Ruts happen, and the 4 Nations tournament doesn’t help their flow, either, but the power play has been too big of an issue every spring for this group to get a free pass from me at this point. Matthews, for example, hasn’t scored a power-play goal since January 16! In that game, McMann was on the top unit because Tavares didn’t play (McMann assisted the goal, to boot).
There are far too many power plays that lack a cohesive plan. Players are passing when they should shoot and shooting when they should pass. All season, they have been more direct when a key player has been missing (Matthews, Marner, Tavares, etc.). In 2025, the Leafs’ power play ranks sixth overall, so they have been really good, but it has nothing to do with the current top unit, and I don’t think it’s getting better as time goes on.
2. In terms of splitting it up, I think a few things are pretty simple to begin with. Rielly should be at the point for one unit, and OEL on the point for the other. Knies will be in front on one unit and Tavares on the other. Even the half-wall group is pretty simple because it will include Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, and the other option I’d keep there is Domi. That leaves McMann for the bumper on one unit, and I’d reward Robertson as the bumper on the other.
I think my initial split would look something like Knies in front with Domi and Matthews on the flanks, McMann on the half-wall and OEL up top, then Tavares in front with Nylander and Marner on the half-walls, Robertson in the flank, and Rielly up top. Their next two opponents, San Jose and Vegas, have the 29th and 30th-ranked penalty kills in 2025. It’s a perfect time for the top unit to get rolling as is or to shake it up and see how it goes.
3. On the flip side, the penalty kill has posted bad numbers for a while now. In 2025, they rank 23rd on the penalty kill at 74.6 percent. I think a few things need to be re-evaluated.
When the penalty kill was performing well earlier in the season, one reason was that they were super aggressive and mixed in short shifts to keep things fresh. Their current leader in total penalty killing ice time in 2025 is Marner (more than any defenseman, too), and how is he going to be aggressive when he’s playing nearly 22 minutes total per game? From October to the end of December, seven Leafs forwards averaged at least 1:27 per game shorthanded (and the lowest one was Dewar, who played 20 games). Since January 1, they have only two forwards averaging over 1:27 (they are averaging over a minute less per game shorthanded).
I think they need to get back to three units and play at a more aggressive pace. They have seemingly reduced themselves to two, and it’s not nearly aggressive enough.
4. While discussing the Leafs’ penalty kill, I don’t think we can ignore the defense. The top two penalty killers, Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev, are very good. Their next two most commonly used, Simon Benoit and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, get the softer matchups generally because they come on later in the penalty kill. Both have been on for more goals per 60 minutes than the top pairing.
Benoit is tied with Tanev amongst Leafs defensemen for shorthanded goals against this season, except Benoit has played about 30 minutes less shorthanded than Tanev. If we look at Boston’s power play goal, for example, Benoit’s positioning was really poor as the Bruins passed it low and bumped it to the slot for a one-timer right in front of him.
The problem is that they don’t exactly have internal options. Are they going to play Rielly there? More Timmins or OEL? The reality is they need external help, partly because Jani Hakanpaa hasn’t played.
5. I think it’s far too early still to think anything of the goalie rotation either way. About seven and a half weeks are left in the schedule, and the Leafs have 22 games remaining. That’s a lot of hockey in a tight timeframe, so both goalies will be counted on, and a lot can happen in that time. They should still be rotating the two goalies as things stand, though Joseph Woll will need to rebound after one of his poorest outings of the season in his last appearance.
