To set up the Battle of Ontario series, we’ve studied the five-on-five matchups and the special-teams battle. Let’s conclude our preview series with final thoughts to tee up Game 1.

First off, the Maple Leafs‘ core is 2-7 in Game 1s. They are constantly behind the eight ball, making their lives a lot more difficult. A good start would pave the way, especially against an inexperienced Senators team.

I am not entirely convinced the Leafs are putting their best foot forward with their (presumed) starting lineup, though. It appears the Leafs coaching staff is running this middle-six grouping to start:

Pontus Holmberg produced 19 points this season and can’t shoot; by comparison, the Senators are running Dylan Cozens at 3C, for all intents and purposes, and he tallied 47 points this season. If we want to consider Shane Pinto their 3C instead, he scored 21 goals. It’s not even in the realm of comparable. 

In reality, I think the Scott Laughton line will essentially act as the team’s third line minutes-wise, and at least they are dependable, but that’s how the Leafs will end up with 20-goal scorer Bobby McMann — who I would rate as their sixth-best forward overall — playing around 12 minutes

Long story short, I think the Leafs are leaving quite a bit of meat on the bone with these lines if this is what they ultimately run in Game 1 (I wouldn’t entirely rule out a smokescreen by Craig Berube). It gives slight flashbacks to Sheldon Keefe running a second line of Tavares-ROR-Nylander and a third line of Kerfoot-Acciari-Jarnkrok to begin their series against Tampa Bay in 2023. That was a completely asinine decision, and the team got crushed in Game 1 before moving ROR to 3C and winning four of the next five. 

I don’t think this current lineup configuration is that egregious, and the Leafs aren’t playing the reigning Cup champions, so the margin for error is far greater. If the Matthews line produces in a matchup where he isn’t taking on a Norris winner in his prime with the best goalie in the league behind him — as was the case in 2023 — then it’s probably moot. The same goes if the Leafs manufacture a good special-teams showing, which we outlined already as something that should be plausible if not expected.

Max Domi and William Nylander have both shown that they elevate in the playoffs, so perhaps if they continue the trend, they will combine to produce. But again, the line looks like three skill players who don’t defend well and don’t hound the puck on the forecheck enough to be worth the few times they have the puck on their stick. 

It’s worth noting that the McMann-Holmberg-Robertson line did an excellent job of controlling play, working the cycle in the offensive zone, and creating chances. McMann and Robertson are two quality finishers, so they don’t need a ton of offensive help from Holmberg, and Holmberg will check and defend well. 

Which brings us to the Senators’ X-factor in this series: Shane Pinto. The Senators want this matchup against Matthews. If Pinto effectively shuts down the Leafs’ captain, the pressure is on for the rest of the Leafs’ lines. If Knies-Matthews-Marner can produce, it makes the rest of their lives a lot easier. 

The McCabe-Tanev pairing, an excellent shutdown duo, will draw the Stutzle line, so if those two factors break the Leafs’ way, it really lessens the blow on any shortcomings in the rest of the lineup. It also makes any sort of production from those two middle-six lines a real game-tilter, which is highly reasonable, given the second-leading goal scorer in the league is on one of the units and both McMann and Robertson can shoot the puck in the net. 

If those two primary matchups play out as they probably should (Matthews line vs. Pinto line, and McCabe-Tanev vs. the Senators’ top line), it sets the series up rather nicely for the Leafs. That said, I’ll be surprised if the current line combinations remain in place throughout the series.

William Nylander, Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA Today Sports/Imagn Images

A few other notes:

–  The Senators amassed a rather mediocre road record of 18-19-4 this season. I don’t think it’ll matter much in the first two games of the series when they will be playing on adrenaline, but I think it will come into play in G5 (and if there’s a G7).

–  The Leafs were 23-4-4 in one-goal games this season. We’ll see if it carries over to the playoffs, but they were very comfortable in tight checking, low-scoring games. Last season, we talked a lot about opponents like the Bruins sitting back against the Leafs and waiting for Toronto to make the back-breaking mistakes. The Leafs are a lot more mature in their game this season and typically avoid giving up easy offense off the rush.

– The Senators were really good at banging home pucks in front of the net this season, as depicted by this graphic. The Leafs heavily invested in big defensemen who get in the way. The Leafs must clear the net and win the battles in their house.

–  Two key players showed real signs of elevating their game in the final two weeks of the season: Morgan Rielly and Scott Laughton. Rielly produced six points in his final seven games and was a +8 (I know, it’s a flawed stat, but I thought it fit the bill with his play). He was a lot more active, moving his feet, leading breakouts with his puck carrying, and joining the rush.  

– Meanwhile, Laughton settled into a good checking, two-way type role. He only produced four points in his final 11 games, but he had all sorts of chances, including a breakaway off the bar, multiple 2v1s, and teammates missing some chances off would-be points (like Calle Jarnkrok hitting the post vs. Carolina). At the same time, he won his minutes overall at five-on-five despite tough usage.

Laughton got off to a really tough start to his Leafs career, but when he brings what he’s capable of bringing, he’s a real asset to the team. He can competently take on tough minutes and is an asset on the penalty kill. If he chips in some offense to go along with those contributions, he will be a difference-maker for the group. They don’t possess many forwards who play with some jam like Laughton does.

Hopefully, it is a sign of things to come from both Rielly and Laughton.

– The Senators own a solid top-four defense group, but I wouldn’t consider a single one of them to be overly physical or “mean.” They are mobile and can close time and space well, but overall, it’s a group that the Leafs’ top players should be able to impose their will on. For all the talk of Brady Tkachuk as a physical force — which I’m sure he will be — there’s not much discussion about the Leafs’ big, physical defense, which is capable of combatting it. Conversely, who is handling Matthew Knies in the Senators’ top four?

– Further to this point, the Senators appear set to run a rookie third pairing of Kleven-Matinpalo. I like both players in a vacuum, but this is the playoffs, and the Leafs control the matchups at home to start. They must take advantage of the Ottawa bottom pairing at every turn.

–  Linus Ullmark is a really talented goalie, but the Leafs had no real issues solving him in the playoffs last season, and Jeremy Swayman ultimately took over. He has struggled in the playoffs throughout his career as well. I’m not definitively suggesting goaltending is an advantage for the Leafs, but Ullmark is a somewhat vulnerable playoff goalie until he proves otherwise. Meanwhile, Anthony Stolarz has never started a playoff game, but between him and Joseph Woll, there’s too much quality for Toronto’s goaltending to be a liability. It’s Ullmark or bust for the Senators.

–  Craig Berube has done a bang-up job managing the team down the stretch in terms of keeping them dialed in, everyone healthy, and the narratives and storylines in check. There was a real focus on winning down the stretch, compared to “I don’t even know the score of the game we just played.” It seems like a small thing, but it’s a big thing in this market. Pat Quinn was really effective at working the media in the playoffs; we’ll see if Berube can do the same now, but his short answers, where he doesn’t give the media much of anything, help curtail a lot of nonsense. 

–  At the end of the day, we can talk Xs and Os and matchups all we want, but there’s no excuse for the Knies-Matthews-Marner line to not be, by far, the best line in this series. The Leafs are following it up with a second line consisting of the second-leading goal scorer in the league and another near 40-goal scorer. Bottom line, the Leafs’ stars have to produce in the playoffs. If they do, the Leafs will be in good shape.

– Leafs in six.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR