After leading the North Division at the turn of the new year, a string of poor results, including a terrible March, resulted in the Toronto Marlies scrambling for playoff qualification and a fourth-place finish.
The outcome is a first-round matchup that will pit them face-to-face with their Kryptonite opponent. Regular readers of this space will know that said Kryptonite opponent is the Cleveland Monsters.
Regular Season Series
Toronto’s recent victory against Cleveland on April 12 was their first win against the Monsters since November 25, 2022. You have to go back to October 19, 2019, to find the last time Toronto recorded a regulation victory on home ice versus Cleveland.
Scoring has proven problematic for Toronto during the regular-season matchup. They’ve scored more than two goals just twice against Cleveland (a 4-1 victory and a 6-5 shootout loss). That’s in stark contrast to Cleveland’s overall campaign in which they have allowed 219 goals (second most of all Eastern Conference teams to qualify for playoffs).
Playoff Series
The Marlies must erase all negative thoughts ahead of a best-of-three series in which winning the first game is crucial. Since the AHL introduced this new playoff format, there have been 21 best-of-three series, and only two teams have progressed after losing the opening game.
Cleveland and Toronto have only met once in postseason play. The teams squared off in the second round of the 2019 Calder Cup playoffs, and Toronto swept the series 4-0.
The Marlies own home advantage in this sprint series, but I don’t think it’ll count for much for two reasons:
- The series begins in Cleveland
- Cleveland earned more points on the road than at home during the regular season.
Starting On Time & the Five-on-Five Play
There is a huge disparity between the teams at five-on-five this season. Cleveland has a minus-17 goal differential and allowed almost two goals per game at five-on-five play. Toronto is plus four at five-on-five, but the season series between the two rivals paints a different picture. Cleveland outscored Toronto 15-10 at five-on-five, which must be concerning to the coaching staff.
Slow starts have plagued Toronto through the regular season, although it’s also been an issue for Cleveland. The Monsters are ranked 28th in first-period goals (0.72) while Toronto is 29th (0.65). Both have excelled when scoring first and proven to be excellent front-runners, losing a combined two games in regulation when ahead after 40 minutes.
Special Teams
During the regular season series, power plays ruled the roost as penalty kills struggled at under 80%. The Marlies‘ power play struck seven times, but perhaps more important is a focus on staying out of the penalty box.
One of the best-disciplined teams in the AHL at the turn of the year, Toronto suffered a huge drop-off in that regard down the stretch. The Marlies were called for 328 minor penalties (third most in the AHL) and drew just 303 in response. Cleveland is on the right side of the ledger with a plus-two minor penalty differential.
The Monsters will rely on Trey Fix-Wolansky, Rocco Grimaldi, and Luca Del Bel Belluz, who scored 22 power-play goals between them. Cleveland has received a boost with the return of defenseman Denton Mateychuk, who netted four power-play goals in 27 appearances.
Alex Steeves and Alex Nylander scored 23 goals between them during the regular season and will be the focus of Cleveland’s penalty kill. You can also point to William Villenueve, who registered 15 power-play points, nine of which were primary assists.
Goaltending
Along with Denton Mateychuk, Cleveland’s second returning player from the NHL is netminder Jet Greaves. Without Greaves, Toronto would be clear favourites to win this series. Cleveland will lean heavily on a goaltender who delivered a 21-11-6 record, produced three shutouts, and posted a .920 save percentage.
The Marlies will start the playoffs with Dennis Hildeby between the pipes, but they have the luxury of switching to Matt Murray at any point. That could come into play if the series goes the distance, as Game 2 and Game 3 are played on consecutive days.
Offensive Producers
The Marlies hold the upper hand in terms of firepower.
Cleveland will look to their trio of Trey Fix-Wolansky, Rocco Grimaldi, and Luca Del Bel Belluz to provide offense. The trio combined for 70 goals and 171 points through the regular season. Secondary scoring should not be overlooked through Roman Ahcan (18/G/11A) and Owen Sillinger (11G/18A). As mentioned earlier, the addition of defenseman Denton Mateychuk will add an offensive dimension to a Cleveland blue line that doesn’t generate much scoring.
Without stating the obvious, Toronto will look to Alex Steeves and Alex Nylander to light the lamp. Nick Abruzzese heads into the playoffs in the sort of form we’ve rarely seen from the winger — red-hot and brimming with confidence (3-5-8 in his last four games).
It has not been the best season offensively for Logan Shaw or Joseph Blandisi, but both are experienced veterans who thrive when the chips are down. Shaw rediscovered some form heading down the stretch and is likely feeling more confident now than he was two months ago.
The Marlies’ strength is in depth scoring, with 10 players reaching double figures in goals this season. With players such as Robert Mastrosimone, Roni Hirvonen, Cédric Paré, and possibly even Jacob Quillan in the bottom six, Toronto will feel confident in every line’s ability to produce offense.
Recent form
Cleveland stumbled down the stretch, recording a single victory (a 6-5 SO win vs. Toronto) in the final five games. The Monsters scored just five goals in four defeats and were shut out in the final regular-season game.
Toronto went 4-0-2 in the final six games, partly because it’s what the team had to do to make the postseason. Regardless of the results, the Marlies were playing better overall and sticking to the structure, which ultimately led to success.
Series Prediction
“I think we know exactly what [the Cleveland Monsters] are. I have no problems losing games, as long as we don’t beat ourselves. If we can stay structured and do this as a group, I like our chances.”
– John Gruden
On countless occasions this past regular season, the Marlies have outplayed and outchanced opponents but found new and inventive ways to lose. That has definitely been the case in the season series against Cleveland.
Much will rest on the result of Game 1 and how Toronto performs in front of what will likely be a huge crowd at Rocket Arena (which holds almost 19,000).
“It’s nice that we got a win against Cleveland a couple of weeks ago,” said Alex Steeves. “Mentally, I think that was huge for us.”
The victory mentioned by Steeves was vital, as demonstrated by the fact that the Marlies’ leading scorer mentioned it unprompted. It felt like a monkey off the team’s back; the long losing streak versus the Monsters won’t be hanging over them when the puck drops on Thursday night.
Put simply, Toronto has to play a structured game and avoid the big, self-inflicted mistakes. If they can accomplish those two feats, their solid goaltending, coupled with a potent offense, will be too much for Cleveland.
Game 1 is pivotal, but if Toronto can win on the road, I’ll predict they take the series 2-0.
Schedule
Thu. Apr 24, 2025 — Toronto @ Cleveland — 7:00 PM
Sat. Apr 26, 2025 — Cleveland @ Toronto — 4:00 PM
Sun. Apr 27, 2025 — Cleveland @ Toronto — 4:00 PM (if required)
