Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Minnesota Wild
Photo: Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports

The Maple Leafs are halfway through their toughest remaining stretch of the season, completing the recent four-game road trip with a 2-1-1 record to collect a respectable five of eight points.

Up next is a massive five-game homestand against Minnesota, Detroit, Vegas, Colorado, and Buffalo — three of the best teams in the West, along with two division rivals currently ahead of the Leafs in the standings.

When fighting to make up ground in the standings, as the Leafs are, every game matters. But this upcoming stretch appears the most daunting on paper. In March, the Leafs play the Rangers and Ducks twice each, the Devils, the Islanders, and the Flyers, along with divisional games against Tampa, Montreal, Boston, and Ottawa, plus games against Carolina, St. Louis, and Minnesota. Nothing is easy in this league, but that stretch in March is not quite on par with the current slate of games scheduled. 

Halfway through this tough stretch, the Leafs are 2-1-1, and there are a lot of ways to look at the past four games. Toronto became the first team to beat Colorado in Colorado in a game that didn’t end in a shootout. They clawed back against Winnipeg for a big two points, and they were seven seconds away from collecting two more in regulation against Vegas. 

On the flip side, Nathan MacKinnon labelled the crossbar in overtime before the Leafs scored in Colorado, and Jonathan Toews hit the post with just over a minute left in Winnipeg. They were a hair’s breadth from collecting just two points and making it a nightmare trip. However, when facing good teams on a tough road trip with a big time-zone difference, it’s not really about style points. 

The Leafs were full marks in two of three periods against both the Jets and Vegas. Against Colorado, they played what I would consider their best second period of the season, given the opponent and the fact that they actively controlled the play and outscored them (after the game, Jared Bednar admitted that the Leafs outplayed his team in the middle frame as well). The Utah game was a complete write-off, but otherwise, the Leafs generally played some really good hockey on this road trip and dug in for some positive results. 

In both of their wins, the Leafs killed penalties taken with under three-and-a-half minutes remaining. They also effectively played half the games without their leading point scorer, although William Nylander did collect two points in two shifts before getting hurt in Vegas. 

Halfway through a very tough stretch, the Leafs have done very well to collect points and play some good hockey. Now, they return home, where they are 16-5-5 this season, but they’ll face about as daunting a five-game homestand as you’ll find in the league. Let’s see if the Leafs can keep it rolling now as they return to some home cooking.

Notes

Photo: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

– The Leafs have been the much-publicized best faceoff team in the league this season, and faceoffs played a pretty significant role in the games this week. Auston Matthews cleaned out Adam Lowry, leading directly to the Bobby McMann goal that tied the game late against Winnipeg. On their two penalty kills late in both wins, the Leafs started with faceoff wins and clears. Even McMann’s readiness to go on a lost faceoff led to a breakaway and a goal after he hit his lane hard to disrupt a pass.

Strangely, the one area where the Leafs can’t win a faceoff is on the power play. They went 3/11 on faceoffs during a 1-for-8 week on the power play, as they struggled to gain the zone. Once they gain the zone, they’ve been able to set it up and create, but consistent entries have been a problem through most of the season. The issue is exacerbated by William Nylander‘s injury.  

– The Scott Laughton – Steven Lorentz combo has turned into the Leafs’ most heavily leaned on PK unit this season, and for good reason. In 55 minutes together, the Leafs have only been outscored 4-1. Their 4.35 goals against per 60 is just about on par with Tampa’s top duo of Anthony Cirelli – Brandon Hagel (4.29). Laughton’s speed and instincts, coupled with Lorentz’s length and ability to win battles, have made for a really strong combo to spearhead the Leafs’ PK, which is now ranked third in the league. 

– I liked seeing Laughton go after Gabe Vilardi for the head snapback on the Matthew Knies high-sticking call late in the third in Winnipeg. It showed fire and passion in support of a teammate who probably felt awful for sitting in the box at that stage in the game. This team has taken a lot of flak for not showing enough fire over the years, but Laughton brought it there and backed it up with a big kill. 

– The backbone of the Leafs’ penalty kill, though, has been their goaltending with a ridiculous .914 save percentage. The next highest in the league is .899, a significant gap. To put it into further perspective, over the previous five seasons, only one team in the entire league had a full-season save percentage over .900 — the LA Kings in 2023-24 with a .906, which is still notably lower than the Leafs’ current rate. I’d love to write that the Leafs’ entire penalty-killing performance is driving a great save percentage — and the goalies couldn’t perform at this rate if the Leafs were poor at penalty killing for this long, so there’s some truth in that — but at some point, it will regress. 

– We probably haven’t focused enough on team defense this season. The Leafs are second in the league in five-on-five goals so far this season, and they are the only team in the top 10 that has actually been outscored at five-on-five. 

– Not helping matters is that the Leafs play Morgan Rielly a ton. On this 12-game, post-Marc Savard hot streak, Rielly is averaging just under 21 minutes per game and has been on for 20 goals against while getting outscored by eight. The only Leaf who even comes close is Philippe Myers, who has been outscored by five. In fact, only three other Leafs have been outscored in this time period, so it’s a pretty sizable gap. In the past week alone, Rielly was beaten in front by Kolesar and Neiderreiter for goals against, and he was a minus-four against Utah. He is not the only reason the Leafs give up so much defensively, but it’s difficult when one of the team’s regular minute-eaters is regularly losing his minutes.

– ?Max Domi‘s overtime goal against Winnipeg was his sixth goal on the season, and half of those goals have been game winners. He had two game winners total over his first two seasons as a Leaf (not including playoffs). After a slow start largely caused by moving him to center, Domi has 14 points in 22 games since December 1. In January, he’s averaging 16:21 per game as well. He still struggles defensively — which ultimately limits the top line, as Berube has moved to shelter them a bit more — and the unit has been outscored overall. That said, he has provided a real offensive spark for Matthews, and that alone is worth it.

Quotes

Photo: John E. Sokolowski/Imagn Images

“We have to keep building our puck play. Our puck play has been really good — starting in our own zone, making plays coming out of our zone, and through the neutral zone. I thought our puck play in the offensive zone was excellent against Vegas. We created a lot of opportunities. There were even more there that just missed in different situations. I think our game has really grown with our puck play.”

– Craig Berube on the positives to build on after the overtime loss in Vegas

“Puck play” has really grown as a point of emphasis over the past month, and it’s often a good indicator early in games as to the Leafs’ likely fate. Their forward group is deep and talented; the team is tied for fifth in the league in goals per game. When they move the puck cleanly out of their end and through the neutral zone, their forwards can make teams pay from there.

That said, the offense isn’t the problem. The Leafs are tied with Montreal for 23rd in the league in goals against per game. Early on, we could blame the goaltending, but Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby have generally been strong since they paired up nearly two months ago. This past week alone, the Leafs gave up six goals in two of their four games.

Justin Bourne wrote last week about the Leafs’ tendency to stop making plays while up in games, leading to outcomes like the one in Vegas. The Leafs are the worst team in the league at closing out games when they enter the third period with a lead. I’m not going to regurgitate Bourne’s entire article, but the Leafs need to keep playing even if they’re leading. There is a time and place for off-the-boards just to get a puck out, but they can’t do it for a full period against quality teams.

“[Ekman-Larsson] does it all for us every night. He kills. He runs the power play. He plays big minutes. He plays against top lines. He had a huge night for us. I was glad to see that goal, and then the sifter that Bobby [McMann] tipped. He broke up that fourth one to give us an opportunity to go down on an odd-man rush. He was unbelievable tonight.”

– Auston Matthews on OEL’s contributions

What a week — and season so far — from Oliver Ekman-Larsson. In the biggest week of the Leafs’ season to date, he led the team in scoring with six points in the four games. As Alec noted, OEL is winning his overtime minutes by a ridiculous 6-0 tally, and he picked up two of those six points this past week in overtime. He’s now tied for 18th in defense scoring this season, and every single defenseman ahead of him averages more ice time. He has already doubled his goal total from last season and has outscored his production from all of last season. OEL is aging like a fine wine right now. 

“Nerve issue… I had to kind of let it settle down a little bit. It’s not like a bruise, where it goes away. It was just something that I just kind of had to let heal on its own. It just took a little while.”

– Anthony Stolarz on the injury that has kept him out of action since November 11

It’s interesting that the Leafs go to great lengths to hide the nature of injuries, and then their players are generally forthcoming when they return. Anthony Stolarz just admitted he has been battling a nerve issue. Last week, on Spittin’ Chiclets, Scott Laughton admitted that he broke his foot. How hard would it have been for the organization to announce their player broke his foot and is out for the standard four-to-six-week timeline? How hard would it have been to share that Stolarz has a nerve issue he’s working through, a tricky one to heal? Instead, it’s self-inflicted drama while basic information is shrouded in secrecy and players regularly miss time. At the onset of the above-mentioned injuries, the team was losing regularly, and fans were left in the dark. Why can Stolarz describe the injury now, but the organization couldn’t have clarified this months ago?

Tweets of the Week

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

In case there was any doubt that Auston Matthews is back, he definitely is. Matthews has 10 goals in his past 11 games, and it’s almost crazy to write, but this is the kind of stretch we’ve come to expect of him with the bar he’s set in his career. When the Jets went up 2-0, Matthews went out for a response shift, took a nice Max Domi pass in the slot, and ripped home a no-doubter from the moment it touched his stick (at least for me). I can’t honestly say I’ve felt as confident that Matthews was burying it at basically any point previous this season.

The Atlantic Division is an absolute gauntlet this season, and it seems to be clouding some of the judgement of this Leafs team. They are currently 12th in the league by points and points percentage, despite a weak start. They’ve never once had their top two goalies healthy at the same time, they lost their best defenseman for the year, and their leading scorer has played about 75% of their games. This is a good team in a really tough division. Eventually, some of these teams have to blink; the question is, who will it be?

It’s difficult to ignore just how consistently bad the officiating has been in Leafs games. Against Vegas, Laughton took a clear hit from Adin Hill that was about as easy a call as it gets, one that would’ve likely iced the game. Against Winnipeg, Robertson went to the penalty box because a Jets player high-sticked a teammate in the face (which received about zero attention or air time, by the way, compared to the Zapruder-filmed Leafs infractions). Later in the game in Winnipeg, the Leafs received a late penalty (which was a penalty, for the record) that came with a summer Olympics audition from Gabe Vilardi. On the subsequent Winnipeg power play, the Jets got caught with too many men on the ice — another layup call — but the whistles suddenly went away.

These are big games and big points, and it’s consistently not breaking in the Leafs’ favour. Through nine games in January, the Leafs have gone to more power plays than their opponent just once, the same amount in one other game, and have gone to fewer than the opposition in seven of those games.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Photo: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

1.  As much as I understood why the coaching staff pushed Bobby McMann down the lineup last week (when they had a fully healthy forward group at their disposal), it’s clear that they can’t justify it. McMann, right now, is simply a better fit alongside Auston Matthews and Max Domi due to his speed.

There are so many examples of the big difference McMann’s pace makes for the trio. On Matthews’ goal against Winnipeg, McMann didn’t pick up a point, but the whole sequence started because of him. The puck was dumped in on Domi’s side of the ice, where McMann applied pressure, but Winnipeg beat the first wave to send it up the wall. McMann flew in all the way from the left wing to the wall on the right hashmark before jolting the puck free. When the puck was hard-rimmed to the other corner of the offensive zone, McMann flew in there to support Rielly in a battle. Rielly passed it low to Domi, who centered it to Matthews for the goal.

Matthew Knies would’ve won none of those races, and the sequence doesn’t come close to happening with him on the line in McMann’s place. When Knies was moved up to the top line against Colorado, he was too slow to get in on the forecheck and disrupt breakouts to set the table for Domi’s facilitation of Matthews. Technically, with Knies on the top line, the goals are 4-4, and with McMann, it’s 9-10 overall. Still, the Leafs possess the puck way more with McMann next to Matthews, and right now, it’s working better.

2.  I think the Leafs should keep Calle Jarnkrok in the lineup for two important reasons. Firstly, it maintains the integrity of what the team’s fourth line is supposed to be: a defensive checking line. Unless they really feel inclined to move Knies there, and short of McMann taking the spot, no other winger is a viable option as long as Dakota Joshua is hurt. It is an important line for the Leafs; their utility helps them with the matchup chess game each night.

Secondly, Jarnkrok is an effective penalty killer, and the Leafs generally lack those. When Jarnkrok is out, the Leafs have been turning to Matthews in his spot alongside Nic Roy on PK2. With Jarnkrok in against Winnipeg, he helped kill the penalty, and they turned to a Matthews shift afterward in which he almost scored multiple times. Without Jarnkrok there, it’s extra hard, defensive minutes for Matthews instead of #34 pushing for a goal after the kill. When Matthews started overtime, he was a little fresher as well, and he eventually set up the winner on a night when he played 21:38.

3.  While Matthews’ minutes were inflated in Vegas due to William Nylander‘s absence for nearly the entire game, the Leafs really need to reconsider their minute allocation overall. In the Vegas game, Scott Laughton played just 10:57 at even strength and scored in those minutes. The only other regular forward who played less was Steven Lorentz. Easton Cowan, despite a bad offensive-zone penalty, played more than a veteran checking center while the Leafs held the lead the entire night. How do you square that? They weren’t chasing the game, and they had 11 forwards all night, so it was easy to shift players around.

Similarly, John Tavares just finished a week where he played 19:26, 14:31 (blowout vs Utah), 18:25, and 19:40, despite his game really labouring right now (he was held pointless in three of those games). It’s a fair bet that Tavares will rest up over the Olympic break and return reinvigorated, but there are still really important games to play before then. When Tavares is struggling, I don’t think the Leafs need him pushing 20 minutes while Roy and Laughton play around 13-14. Both are capable of handling more minutes, and Tavares would likely benefit from slightly less.

4.  On defense, Philippe Myers shouldn’t be in the lineup at all. This is almost reaching Marc Savard territory, whereby Brad Treliving needs to step in and take him away from the staff altogether. He hasn’t been NHL-calibre all season, but he keeps dressing. Against Winnipeg, he was on for two goals against in less than nine minutes and played one shift after the second one, logging just 9:18. Both Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson played over 25 minutes as a result. Against Vegas, with under five minutes left while nursing a one-goal lead, the Leafs were bailed out by an offside review after Myers was (predictably) burned. He didn’t play again afterward, and that game was actually one of his better ones in recent memory. Maybe we have the exact same conversation about Matt Benning or Henry Thrun (or whoever else) in a few weeks’ time, but it can’t be Myers at this point. It has been clear for months, and he’s done nothing in that time to change the assessment.

5.  I think this is a really tricky upcoming stretch to figure out the goalie starts. Joseph Woll will obviously start against Minnesota after sitting since Thursday, and the Leafs play every other night heading into the Olympic break (including a back-to-back as their final two games). I am tempted to suggest giving Dennis Hildeby his Detroit redemption game, and then giving Woll his against Vegas. I am also mindful that these division games carry real significance, and it isn’t really the time for that type of thinking unless you really believe it will bring out the best in them. That Detroit game, along with the Buffalo game on the following Tuesday, is vital. They cannot mess around with either game.

Even still, Woll-Hildeby-Woll feels right. Perhaps if Anthony Stolarz is ready to return by the weekend, he can start the Colorado game — a tough welcome back, but sometimes, it’s good to be pushed into the deep end, and it keeps Woll fresh for Buffalo.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR