The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to remake their roster, acquiring Nick Paul in exchange for Dennis Hildeby, a 2027 fourth-round pick, and a 2028 third-round pick.
There were a few glaring issues on the Leafs‘ roster, and this move hypothetically addresses both of them at once.
The first is that the Leafs had a logjam in net after signing Sergei Bobrovsky. Anthony Stolarz is a quality backup, and the organization is clearly high on the waiver-exempt Artur Akhtyamov after his brilliant Calder Cup run. That left Hildeby as the potential odd man out, and this trade confirmed it.
Hildeby no longer had a waiver exemption, so the Leafs ran the risk of losing him on waivers or carrying three goaltenders. It might have been difficult to trade Stolarz — and they might not have wanted to at all, given that the Bobrovsky-Stolarz tandem was excellent when they won a Cup together. They clearly favoured Akhtyamov over Hildeby, and it’s hard to blame them after he effectively stole the net from Hildeby with the Toronto Marlies.
At the same time, the Leafs had a clear need at 3C and will hope Nick Paul can fill that spot. He has bounced around Tampa Bay’s lineup, but he’s just two seasons removed from leading the team in faceoffs taken during a season in which he posted career highs with 24 goals and 46 points. The following year, he was also very productive, recording 22 goals and 41 points.
In those two seasons, Paul averaged 17:16 and 16:27 per game. This past season, however, his role and Tampa Bay’s roster dynamics changed drastically.
It started with preseason wrist surgery that caused him to miss the first 19 games of the season. The Lightning also acquired Yanni Gourde and used him as their matchup center, effectively making him their 3C. With Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli firmly entrenched as the top two centers, Paul was left in an awkward spot and bounced around the lineup. He finished with just seven goals and 15 points in 51 games. Paul also suffered a lower-body injury in February that cost him another 11 games. Between returning from wrist surgery and sustaining the lower-body injury, he recorded 12 points in 34 games.
You can make the case that it was simply a lost season due to injuries and shifting roster dynamics. You can also argue that it could be the beginning of the decline for the 31-year-old Paul, who has three years remaining on his contract at $3.15 million per season.
Paul lost his minutes 18-30, largely because his offense dried up. He was still good territorially and generally remained a solid defensive player. Tampa Bay has typically conducted good business, and they didn’t move his salary and roster spot for anything especially concrete in return — just two mid-round picks and a goaltender with limited NHL experience, albeit one with some promise.
Without question, Paul struggled last season. The Leafs are betting on a bounce-back to the previous two seasons, when he was a solid middle-six forward. If that’s the player they get at center, this is a significant addition. It gives them a legitimate 3C, allowing them to spread their lineup across three lines instead of relying so heavily on a top-six/bottom-six structure, as we’ve discussed.
While Paul is a strong defensive player, he also provides enough offense that you could theoretically pair someone like Easton Cowan with him. He isn’t going to make tic-tac-toe plays, but he can protect pucks, drive the net, and create space while Cowan creates. Paul isn’t good enough to realistically challenge John Tavares for the 2C role, but an effective version of Paul helps them build three legitimate scoring lines.
That would be the ideal setup, with the Leafs icing a true checking fourth line while keeping the majority of their offensive firepower concentrated in the top six.
There is legitimate risk on both sides of this deal. Hildeby has been a promising prospect in the organization’s pipeline for years and showed well during his NHL appearances this past season. Meanwhile, Paul struggled this year and is turning 31. Unlike previous moves where the Leafs traded away some baseline certainty, they have added some here while also using draft capital to push the deal across the finish line, recognizing that Hildeby alone probably wasn’t enough to land a player like Paul.
They will also be counting on Akhtyamov to continue developing and clearly view him as the next guy in net within their system.
The Leafs have spent the first day of free agency adding considerable flexibility to their lineup with players capable of filling multiple forward positions and a variety of roles. Their success will likely depend on how those players are deployed. There are a lot of moving parts, plenty of new faces, and a brand-new coach tasked with putting all the pieces together.
