Matthew Knies’ 2025-26 season was a bit of a complicated one to evaluate. On the surface, there wasn’t much to complain about.
Knies set a career high with 66 points in 79 games, improving on the 58 points he recorded the season before. He did it despite losing Mitch Marner as a linemate, playing 427 five-on-five minutes alongside an Auston Matthews who clearly had a down season by his standards, and spending the majority of the year on a Leafs team that was generally a mess.
His goal total dropped from 29 to 23, but some regression there was always reasonable to expect after he shot 19.1 percent in 2024-25. He still shot 16.4 percent last season and more than compensated for the decline in goals by increasing his assists.
At 23 years old, producing 66 points under those circumstances is a good season. At the same time, it’s debatable if Knies’ overall game took the step forward that his point total might suggest. This is where the more interesting conversation lies entering 2026-27.
Of course, there were mitigating circumstances. Knies played through injury at points during the season, and his skating noticeably dropped off at times. He added weight in the offseason, which may have played a role as well. Whatever the explanation, there were stretches where he simply didn’t look as explosive or imposing as he had previously.
More importantly, he didn’t consistently leverage what makes him such a unique player in the first place. Knies is 6’3″ and over 220 pounds. He can skate, handle the puck, make plays, finish, and legitimately overwhelm defenders when he gets his body involved. There simply aren’t many players in the league with that combination of attributes.
We saw what it can look like in stretches. When Knies gets his feet moving and decides he’s taking the puck somewhere, he can essentially dictate the terms with his frame. He can protect the puck down low, get to the front of the net, extend offensive-zone shifts, and create offense in areas where few Leafs forwards are capable of doing it.
There has been tons of discussion about Knies in the trade market this offseason, and obviously, there is a level of return where you have to listen. If a legitimate number-one defenseman or high-end center is available and Knies is the price of admission, you have the conversation. It would be irresponsible not to, but John Chayka was wise to be extremely careful about moving him.
Knies is entering his age-24 season with five years remaining at $7.75 million AAV. As the cap continues to rise, that contract has a strong chance of becoming increasingly valuable. More importantly, there isn’t another player on the Leafs who really does what Knies does.
They have skilled wingers. They have players who can score. They have some big players and some physical players. They don’t have another 6’3″, 220-plus-pound winger who can legitimately play on the first line, produce 60-plus points, score around the net, carry the puck, win battles, and occasionally take over shifts physically.
It’s easy to say wingers aren’t premium assets, and generally speaking, we agree. If you’re choosing where to allocate major resources, quality centers and defensemen are harder to find and generally more important. But Knies’ particular winger profile is really difficult to replace.
The encouraging part is that he also showed last season that his production isn’t completely dependent on ideal circumstances. He lost Marner, Matthews struggled, the team’s five-on-five offense took a big step back, and Knies still increased his production from 58 to 66 points.
That’s meaningful, but it’s also where our expectations for him start to increase. At this point, we’re not particularly interested in whether Knies can establish himself as a good top-six winger. He already has. The Leafs should be asking whether he can become something more than that.
Can he become a legitimate line driver rather than a high-end complementary winger?
Can he consistently impose himself physically rather than simply flashing that ability?
Can he become one of the players who sets the tone for the team?
Those are much more important questions than whether he scores 66 or 72 points next season.
The physical component, in particular, needs to take another step. This doesn’t mean Knies needs to run around looking for fights every night. But for a player with his size and strength, there should be a noticeable physical impact on games.
Knies should be exhausting to play against. He should be consistently winning space around the net. He should be extending possessions below the goal line. He should be leaning on defensemen over the course of a game. And when teams take liberties with his teammates, he should increasingly be one of the players opponents have to answer to. We wrote in this space about this part of his game entering last season, and we don’t think there was enough growth in that area.
There is an offensive dimension to this conversation, too. Knies scored 22 goals from tight to the net in 2024-25, and that number declined substantially last season. Some of that is shooting percentage regression, but getting to those areas is also fundamental to what makes Knies dangerous.
The Leafs don’t need him to become a perimeter playmaker. His greatest advantage is that he can consistently get to areas of the ice where other players can’t and remain there once he arrives. He should be living around the crease.
Ultimately, that’s why we look at his 2025-26 season as both encouraging and a little incomplete. 66 points at 23 years old on a bad team is nothing to sneeze at. If that represents his floor moving forward, the Leafs have a very good player locked up through his prime on what should become a highly attractive contract.
But there is more here. The Leafs don’t simply need Knies to accumulate another five or 10 points. They need him to start becoming one of the players who dictates the tone. Anthony has repeatedly raised the same question as to whether Knies can develop into the team’s physical leader, something that didn’t really progress last season despite flashes of his ability to dictate play and momentum physically.
There is also still a legitimate question about whether he can drive a line on his own. His results away from Matthews have not been particularly encouraging over his NHL career, and that is one of the remaining hurdles between Knies being a very good complementary winger and becoming a true core driver.
The good news is that what we’re asking Knies to improve isn’t something he needs to magically develop. We’re not asking a small winger to become 6’3″ and 225 pounds. We’re not asking a grinder to suddenly develop top-six skill. We’re not hoping an average skater suddenly becomes explosive.
The ingredients are there. We’ve seen Knies dominate shifts with his size. We’ve seen him make plays. We’ve seen him score big goals. We’ve seen him elevate his game in important moments. At his best, he’s one of the few Leafs who can simply decide he’s taking the puck somewhere and physically make it happen. Now it is about doing it a little more consistently.
That’s why 2026-27 feels like an important season for Knies, who should again see significant time alongside the Leafs’ elite talent. He doesn’t need to prove he belongs in the Leafs’ core. He needs to start showing just how important a member of that core he can become.
There is also a broader point here about how Knies needs to approach his role as the lineup around him shifts. If he’s playing on a line with Auston Matthews and William Nylander, just as an example, he can’t just skill it up with them. Those two will have the puck, make plays, and create offense. Knies needs to lean into his identity as the player who gives the line something different — getting in on the forecheck, winning pucks back, driving the net, establishing position around the crease, extending possessions down low, and generally making life miserable for the opposition.
The same applies to the power play. With Darren Raddysh a lock to join PP1 and Gavin McKenna potentially doing the same (it’s a matter of time, if not right away), the competition for those five spots is suddenly more significant. Knies has been an effective net-front presence, but his place on the top unit shouldn’t be written in pen, even if John Tavares may ultimately draw the short stick. Knies will have to prove his value there by consistently doing the things that complement all of that skill around him: winning space around the net, retrieving pucks, providing screens, creating chaos, and finishing from the interior.
In both situations, the path to Knies becoming a bigger difference-maker isn’t trying to become more like the Leafs’ most skilled players; it’s becoming an even better, more consistent version of Matthew Knies.
