Six games into the new season, the Maple Leafs are 3-2-1. It’s easy to forget, but they had the exact same record after six games last season, too.
On their current road trip last season, it started much the same way — blowing a lead against Vegas but picking up a point, beating Colorado, then getting blown out by Utah. I’m eager to see what happens this time around against the Mammoth.
These are sobering thoughts, to be sure, and I won’t spend much time comparing last season’s team to this one. The current iteration is far more exciting, skilled, and mobile. That is crystal clear, and was likely always going to be the case after drafting Gavin McKenna alone.
What matters here is the process over the results. Six games into the season won’t tell us much either way, especially if we focus on the record. The Lightning, who finished tied for fifth in the NHL last season, started 1-4-2, including regulation losses to Chicago and Columbus. The Minnesota Wild posted the fourth-worst points percentage in the league in October and finished seventh by season’s end. You would obviously prefer a good start, or at minimum, to avoid digging a hole, but there is a ton of hockey left.
The Leafs currently rank 21st in five-on-five shot attempt share, slightly below water at 48.87 percent. They are one of 17 teams with a positive goal differential. Every game the Leafs have played has been tight, with a chance to tie or win in the third period. They are 24th in expected goals at 46.89 percent, 12th in goals per game, and tied for 17th in goals against per game. On special teams, they’re leading the league in penalty-killing efficiency and rank eighth on the power play. Their five-on-five save percentage ranks a surprisingly low 23rd.
It’s a lot of noise to sort through. Now tack on that this is a brand-new team that needs time to gel after a short preseason—that’s not a cop-out or excuse—and that they’ve had a fairly difficult schedule to start, with four of their six opponents to date making the playoffs last year; three finished in the top 10, another made the Stanley Cup Final, and one won the Presidents’ Trophy. That is a little bit of excuse-making, but the quality of competition will tilt results, especially when we’re evaluating two weeks of hockey.
So, what have we really seen from this Leafs team to date? A few areas stand out about a group that needs time to develop proper chemistry and a blueprint for winning games consistently.
The forward depth is better, but they need to find the right mix to create three lines
The “new” top line of Marchenko-Matthews-Roslovic has dominated the shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals so far. They are heavily tilting the ice in every respect except actually scoring. They are owning roughly 62 percent of the shot attempts and 72 percent of expected goals, while Natural Stat Trick has their scoring chances at 32-13 in just six games and 50 minutes together.
Marchenko and Roslovic have been effective at carrying the puck, and once they’re deep in the offensive zone, Matthews is controlling the walls. Marchenko and Roslovic’s ability to beat defenders one-on-one in space has really helped open the game up for this line. If they keep playing like this, it is only a matter of time before the goals start pouring in, and I’m not particularly worried about them.
Similarly, the general third line of Cowan-Paul-Sissons has been an excellent fit. Two responsible veterans alongside a talented puck carrier have worked well together, and they are also controlling play. They’ve even gone head-to-head in prime matchups, helping keep Matthews focused on offense.
Unfortunately, the de facto second line has not been nearly as successful. That has been hammered home enough. The question is whether they can find the right mix across three lines to build a proper three-line attack. I think there is enough talent to mix and match until they find the right formula, but they need to sort it out. An ascending McKenna, who seems to be getting better game by game right now, and Cowan could make that easier as the season goes on.
For a team hovering around even in terms of the run of play, finding the right mix across three lines alone could push them into the positive play-controlling territory they should be aiming for.
The defense is, as expected, a work in progress
The Leafs started the season with a hard shutdown pairing and a heavily offensive pairing. The Rielly-Raddysh pairing has a rather outrageous 80 percent offensive-zone faceoff percentage, and yet they have still been outscored 5-3.
That pushed them to try spreading things out with McCabe-Raddysh and Rielly-Tanev, and now Tanev is (already) hurt. The OEL-Stecher pair was generally fine as a third pairing, moving the puck up ice cleanly. They were on the right side of every underlying number and won their minutes 4-3. In terms of expectations for a third pairing, they were solid. Now at least one of them will be forced to move up.
Compared to the forwards, it’s hard to look at the Leafs’ defensive options and fairly conclude it’s just a matter of finding the right combinations. Realistically, they’ll need either outside help or a few internal surprises (Nick Blankenburg, Ben Danford, someone else?), or possibly a combination of both. They already needed a top-four defenseman with Tanev in the lineup.
This is so critical less because of straight-up defending and more because of controlling play properly, which good defensemen do. Against both Vegas and Colorado, the Leafs were annihilated in the second period. They couldn’t break out cleanly. That’s not all on the defense, as their wingers were routinely stuffed on the walls, but the defense is rimming pucks far too often, and they can’t beat a forecheck on their own.
Consider the sequence before MacKinnon scores his second goal against the Leafs. The puck was dumped in, and Raddysh had more than enough time to do basically anything other than what he did. It’s an easy example because it led to a goal against, but these types of plays are happening far too frequently: a Leafs defenseman has enough time and space to make a proper play but still can’t execute.
The breakouts need a lot of work
Part of this is systemic, as the Leafs have looked rather directionless on breakouts as a whole. Everyone is defaulting to the boards, be it the defensemen or the forwards.
When defensemen receive the puck, they’re rimming it, and when wingers do collect it, they look uncertain about where to go. Are they bumping it to the middle? Is it going back to the defenseman again? Is there a far-side defenseman who can activate? They haven’t really been trying to use the far-side winger to slash across the ice and chip it up, which is surprising given how much they’re already going off the wall.
Good teams win the second period. With the long change, a strong opponent can really tilt the ice and pour it on for extended periods of play, and right now, that’s what’s happening to the Leafs. It has been the most disappointing part of the young season for me.
I was quite surprised Hiller didn’t use his timeout well at any point in the second period against Vegas. Their lead was a ticking time bomb, and they were getting caved in to an extreme degree. Hiller tried to mix and match the lines to spark a response, but you could feel the momentum and the team’s complete lack of response.
It really comes down to the breakouts. If they can’t move the puck up ice cleanly in a coordinated attack, they’ll keep getting tilted in the second period.
The Leafs have been able to roughly hold their own so far, mainly on the back of talented puck carriers. Players like Nylander, Marchenko, and even Cowan and McKenna — and to a lesser degree, Roslovic — are good at carrying the puck through the neutral zone. You need talent to do that, but it can’t be Plan A, B, and C.
For years under Mike Babcock, the Leafs didn’t have a particularly strong defense, either, but there was a decent structure in place to mitigate it, and they consistently made the playoffs as a baseline. That can and should be the expectation here.
Other than the self-inflicted wounds, the Leafs have generally defended well. They have the goods to be explosive offensively, too. It’s fair to feel good about their goaltending. But their inability to break out cleanly has been glaring so far, partly because their defense realistically lacks talent overall and partly because of the lack of structure.
It’s early days yet — the Leafs have a new coach, a lot of new players, and have played a short preseason — and this Leafs team is far more exciting than last season. If they can find a way to solve a few of these problems, this could really turn into a fun 2026-27 season.
