Nine games into the season, with six of them played at home, a 3–4–2 record with only two regulation wins is not exactly the start the Maple Leafs envisioned.

That makes the Leafs the only team below .500 in the Atlantic Division. That’s what happens when you play three home games against divisional rivals and lose all three. Not only did they blow a two-goal lead against the Sabres, but they did it against a Buffalo team playing its third game in four nights without its best player, Rasmus Dahlin.

Every season, a few teams trudge along at the start before picking it up and settling into a playoff spot. At the end of October last season, the Bruins sat one game below .500 and went on to make the playoffs. The Sabres were a .500 hockey team at that point, reeled off a huge winning streak, and ultimately won the division. Minnesota was 29th in points percentage at the end of last October, too. It does happen, but it’s not easy.

After another home loss on Saturday against the Islanders, Auston Matthews said:

“We need urgency. I mean, the games are just going to keep coming and we gotta just be better in all areas starting with myself, starting with the leaders and veterans on this team. I think we’ve all got another level to show.”

As much as the Leafs are battling their issues, there are quite a few positives on display. Matthews and Nylander are off to strong starts with 13 and 12 points, respectively, through nine games. Kirill Marchenko is at a point per game, as was John Tavares before he got hurt. Easton Cowan is off to a strong start to his sophomore campaign, with seven points in nine games. They have the best penalty kill in the league so far and rank seventh in power-play percentage.

This isn’t exactly a team waiting for its top players to heat up so it can string some wins together. They have been hot, but the wins haven’t been there.

Considering all the changes the team has undergone, there was always going to be a bit of a baptism by fire. But through nine games, it’s hard to say exactly what Leafs hockey looks like or what their winning recipe is.

Realistically, it should probably be some form of high-octane hockey in which they outscore their problems and lean on the talent they have up front. In two of their three wins, they have scored five and six goals, respectively.

It hasn’t looked like that lately, though. They completely took their foot off the pedal against the Sabres and were stymied against the Islanders, scoring just once against a team down to 10 forwards as their coach lamented their inability to get inside and attack.

They simply don’t have the horses on defense to lock down games. Their best chance of success this season is to shoot the lights out and hope the goaltending holds up.

Is that a Stanley Cup-winning recipe? In all likelihood, no. But this is a team that finished fifth-last in the league last season. It’ll take more than one busy offseason to turn that around. Making the playoffs and, as Brian Burke would say, bloodying someone’s nose would represent a realistic success this season. It would signal to the captain that the team is heading in the right direction as he approaches the opportunity to re-sign next offseason, while the Leafs keep building as Gavin McKenna moves toward his prime.

That’s where things stand, but they have a long way to go just to make the playoffs.

Notes

Morgan Rielly, Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Photo: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
  • Saturday’s game against the Islanders was the first I attended this season, and what stood out was how poor the Leafs’ breakouts were. They regularly made the wrong reads. There were a handful of instances that are harder to spot on TV in which they had opportunities to make clean exits and went the wrong way. You can see it on the Islanders’ second goal: The Islanders dump the puck in and go for a line change, yet Morgan Rielly tells Troy Stecher to go up the wall. Yes, Stecher fans on the puck, but Rielly is wide open for a simple D-to-D pass that he quite literally calls off.There were several far-side rim outlets so wide open that the winger would have received the puck with time and space. Instead, the Leafs’ defensemen turned into traffic, as Stecher did on this play. They don’t have the talent on defense to beat forecheckers, make plays, and skate the puck out consistently, but that doesn’t preclude them from making basic reads, communicating, and working together to solve problems and get out of the zone. The fundamental reads and communication aren’t even close.
  • If you are looking for some positive regression, the Leafs currently rank 30th in 5v5 save percentage and 24th in 5v5 PDO. Anthony Stolarz, in particular, is sitting at an .875 save percentage through three starts. He’s far too talented for that.
  • Nick Paul has been a good, versatile addition so far, and his ability to play center has given the Leafs some lineup flexibility. But he is struggling in the faceoff circle, winning just 41.8 percent, and has only eight shots on net through nine games. He has never finished a season with fewer shots than games played in his career, and his lone goal so far came on a Raddysh bomb that nicked him.
  • I think it’s safe to say Easton Cowan has been the team’s biggest positive surprise early in the season. Beyond his seven points in nine games, he’s playing in every situation, including on the penalty kill, and contributing in all facets of the game. His skating has improved by leaps and bounds. Last season, he maxed out at 21.67 miles per hour, below the 50th percentile. This season, he has topped out at 22.44, in the 82nd percentile. He looks like a player who had a great offseason of training and has hit the ground running.
  • We probably all take it for granted at this point, but Matthews and Nylander are off to strong starts and have been playing really well, the Islanders game aside. Interestingly, Matthews has seen his possession game return to its normal levels, but Nylander has not. The Leafs are controlling just over 43 percent of the shot attempts with Nylander on the ice, which would easily be a career low.With Matthews and Nylander together, that number is 42.98 percent. Matthews without Nylander is at 60 percent. Nylander is a talented game-breaker who doesn’t need much to produce, but if those are going to be the results together, the Leafs are better off playing him on a different line and putting Marchenko with Matthews. Those two were heavily tilting the ice together, with 60 percent of the shot attempts and 70 percent of the expected goals.
  • OEL is now pointless through nine games and has gone seven straight without recording a shot on net. He also leads the team in penalty minutes with 12. Even a healthy Leafs defense firing on all cylinders is middling at best. With Chris Tanev injured and OEL playing as he has so far, they don’t have much chance of success.Darren Raddysh has somewhat settled in after a really tough start, Jake McCabe is serviceable, and Troy Stecher is admirably feisty, but they aren’t going to carry a unit. The Leafs really need to get OEL going.

Quotes

Ben Danford, Toronto Marlies playoff goal
Photo: Toronto Marlies

“I just feel like we’re pegging Danford as a defensive defenceman… If you’re asking me, what are Tanev’s strengths and weaknesses, I don’t think they’re the same as Danford’s.

“(Danford) can jump into the play; he should be jumping in the play; he can use his feet. So the comparison to Tanev, I just feel like we’re all dropping into the defensive side of it. I think Tanev is an elite defender. But Danford, everyone’s just capping his ceiling… We don’t know what (Danford’s) ceiling is, and we’re OK saying it.”

– Marlies head coach Steve Sullivan on Ben Danford.

This is a good approach for Ben Danford, who has never been a big point producer but is smooth and has more skill than his numbers would indicate. It will be interesting to see if they can squeeze more out of him. It’s smart not to typecast him as a defensive defenseman and call it a day.

“He said it had nothing to do with my play, which is obviously nice to know. It doesn’t really take away from your confidence at all. I appreciated him reaching out.”

– Gavin McKenna after getting benched.

A week ago, we commended Jim Hiller for how he handled benching William Nylander. A week later, he completely botched this situation. Publicly, he brought up the penalties, how McKenna doesn’t play in those situations, and how he was trying to find him a shift but couldn’t. Essentially, it reached a point where McKenna had sat too long to go back out there. Then, as McKenna noted, Hiller told him it had nothing to do with his play.

You can make the argument that Hiller simply doesn’t trust him defensively and didn’t want to say it, and that McKenna was told not to bring it up publicly, either. I don’t really buy that. Either way, it was an incredibly poor decision that played right into the team’s ultra-conservative approach in the third period. This team isn’t built to play like that.

Compounding matters, Tavares got hurt. Instead of McKenna getting some run, the Leafs used a Blueger–Paul–Marchenko second line for the rest of the game. In overtime, their stars were clearly gassed, with Nylander opening the extra period with a mere 20-second shift.

It was a mess through and through for a coach who hasn’t shown any real coaching chops thus far. In the next game, Hiller naturally overcorrected and played McKenna a career-high 17:56 on a night when he wasn’t playing well enough to justify it.

“Obviously, Toronto played really good hockey lately. They’re a really heavy forecheck team. They’re one of the best teams in the league on their forecheck.”

– André Tourigny ahead of the Leafs–Mammoth game.

I thought it was interesting that he called them one of the best forechecking teams in the league. On most nights, opponents are noting how lethal the Leafs’ forward group is. It is a legitimately talented, playoff-calibre group. Unfortunately, the rest of the team hasn’t shown itself to be, and that has been their undoing so far.

Tweets

Photo: Kim Klement-Imagn Images

This is an interesting split so far. If anything, you would look at this Leafs team and think it would be good off the rush while its defense would get worked over off the cycle. Their best bet for winning is a high-flying offense. They need to be much better off the rush, but the problem is that you need to move the puck cleanly to do that. Alternatively, you try a bunch of high flips, send your forwards, and look to hit some home runs.

The way the Leafs caved in during the third period is what often happened in LA, except that team was at least somewhat built to play that way. It’s a shame, because the opening two periods might have been the Leafs’ best first 40 minutes of the season. But you didn’t have to watch the third for long to realize what was happening and that it had no chance of lasting.

This is a good breakdown of the Leafs’ penalty kill. They do a really good job of preventing seam passes, and snapping pucks east to west to force the goalie to go post to post is the best way to score in this league.

But the Leafs also rank 25th in shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes on the penalty kill. Their in-zone work has been effective, but their neutral zone has been too easy to slice through, allowing teams to set up far too easily.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Bo Groulx, Toronto Marlies
Photo: Toronto Marlies

1.  I think the only time I’ve really liked the fourth line this season is when Colton Sissons has played on it with Blueger and Duhaime. Generally, Groulx or MacEwen has occupied that spot, and the line doesn’t really serve a purpose.

Groulx is not a defensive specialist and doesn’t offer enough offense to justify having him there as a threat to keep teams honest. MacEwen has yet to reach 10 minutes of ice time in a game or register a shot on net in three appearances. He has thrown the odd hit, but he’s not exactly changing games physically or dropping the gloves.

I’d rather lean into the purpose of that line and create a proper defensive unit on one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

2.  I think it makes sense to call up Vinni Lettieri and try to inject a little more depth scoring and, hopefully, a spark into the lineup. Lettieri had a monster playoffs with 26 points in 23 games and has started this season on fire, too, with nine points in five games. He was noticeable and dangerous in the preseason as well.

He’s also 31 and has 32 points in 155 NHL games, so expectations should be kept in check. But his confidence is high, and sometimes those players can step in and give you a shot of adrenaline.

I’d actually try an all-Marlies line with Cowan, Lettieri, and Groulx. Groulx hasn’t done much to keep dressing, but if it’s between him and MacEwen, with Sissons on the fourth line, there isn’t much choice. Cowan deserves to be in the top six, but he can drive a third line, so he is a bit of a victim of his own success in this scenario. I’m sure the Leafs will use Sissons as the 3C instead, but he has more value to them in a shutdown role.

3.  I think the defense, as it currently stands, simply isn’t going to cut it. The Leafs really needed a healthy Chris Tanev to have a chance to be effective. Without him, either you run McCabe–Raddysh together for an extended stretch to see if they click as a viable top-four pairing, or you reunite the McCabe–Stecher “shutdown” pairing from last season.

They don’t have many options, and nothing we can suggest is going to be particularly appealing. Soon, they will have to start trying Marlies or acquire outside help.

4.  I do think, ideally, they give Ben Danford at least 20 games in the AHL as they push him more offensively and round out his game. If he could stay in the AHL until Christmas or New Year’s, show really well, and then get called up, that would be best.

He’s a good prospect, but one who needs to work on his game rather than be thrown to the wolves. It’s tempting to call him up when you look at the current defense, but they have to do what’s right for the player, too.

5.  I think I would split the starts 50/50 this week. Sergei Bobrovsky had a good road trip but hasn’t brought that play back to Toronto, while Stolarz has had just one good game so far. The truth is, neither has been good enough overall.

Looking at the Leafs’ first nine games, they have probably had the better goalie in about three of them. A lot of that is due to the team defense, but they need both goalies to be better. At this point, it should probably be a rotation until someone properly takes the reins.

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