With the trade deadline quickly approaching, the Maple Leafs hold a narrow lead in their Atlantic Division dogfight against the Panthers and Lightning.
While it appears they dodged serious bullets after Chris Tanev and William Nylander didn’t finish the most recent game against the Boston Bruins, it highlighted how thin the Leafs‘ depth is—as it would on any team, to be fair—particularly on defense.
We have discussed their need on defense before, and it has been evident whenever Tanev or Jake McCabe has gone down. Tanev has only missed one game — a loss to the Jets — while McCabe has missed nine to date, and the team has gone 4-5-0 in those games with wins against the Flyers, Predators, and Blackhawks. The one win against a playoff team was their 2-1 overtime win against the New Jersey Devils, a game in which they didn’t leave their own zone for most of the night.
Sometimes a team’s record with/without a player is smoke and mirrors, but this one falls under the black and white category to me. With Tanev slated to miss some time, the team’s defense is set up to look something like this:
McCabe – OEL
Rielly – Myers
Benoit – Timmins
It speaks for itself. That unit has zero chance of going anywhere in the playoffs, and it would be the same story if any of their veteran top-four defensemen missed substantial time now or in the playoffs (though McCabe or Tanev are obviously the big two whose absences would exacerbate the issue). Given that three of their top four defensemen are left-handed, their main target should be a right-handed defenseman.
Even though the Leafs have two left-handed defensemen who can viably play the right side, there’s a big difference between doing it over an 82-game season and doing it every other night in the playoffs. If we look at Cup winners, they generally have proper handedness throughout their pairings, particularly in the top four. Among the past five Cup winners — Florida, Vegas, Colorado, and Tampa Bay x2 — not a single one had four lefties among their top five defenseman. Every single one ran a three lefty/two righty split.
While the forwards also need help, the Leafs are at least built to survive the absence of a top player — because they have so many of them — and have routinely done so, not just this season, but for years now. They have not played a single game this season with their full complement of forwards available to them, but they have generally rolled along anyway. That doesn’t mean they don’t need help upfront, either — they clearly do — but they can only prioritize one at a time.
Complicating matters is the trade market. So far, this is shaping up to be a seller’s market. Not many teams are looking to trade off good players, and many of the players available have onerous contracts that 90+ percent of the league wouldn’t even debate touching or paying up for.
On defense, players in this boat who spring to mind are Seth Jones and Erik Karlsson. Could they help a lot of teams in a salary-cap-less world? Without question. But are teams lining up to take Jones’s $9.5 million or Karlsson’s $10 million salaries? Of course not. It’s bad business, and both carry term to boot.
Paying for the player and multi-year retention on top of that is not realistic for the vast majority of the league. Perhaps someone can take advantage of it, but it’s not going to be the Leafs, who already have a well-spent draft pick cupboard.
Without further ado, let’s examine the rest of the market and who might be available. When it’s all said and done, it really boils down to about three or maybe four options.
On Nick Kypreos’ trade board at Sportsnet, the right-handed defensemen listed are Seth Jones, Erik Karlsson, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Colton Parayko.
At the Athletic, they have the same four, plus three other options: Brandon Carlo, David Savard, and Connor Murphy.
No other right-handed defensemen are listed on The Fourth Period’s trade board or Frank Seravalli’s trade board, either.
It’s an extremely small list, and we’ve already ruled out two, given their contracts, so that leaves us with Parayko, Ristolainen, Carlo, Savard, and Murphy.
I will also include Luke Schenn’s name in the mix, even though he’s strangely not listed on trade boards; there’s no chance a bottom feeding Predators team wouldn’t listen to offers on him, and his name has been mentioned by Elliotte Friedman repeatedly, so let’s use some common sense there.
Even if we wanted to look through the list of left-handed defensemen just for argument’s sake, the list is so weak that it’s not even worth discussing. The names listed to date are Jamie Oleksiak, Mario Ferraro, Brian Dumoulin, Ryan Suter, Ryan Lindgren, and Mattias Samuelsson. There’s not much to say here. This isn’t a strong group, and it wouldn’t be worth the Leafs spending their precious few assets on.
The only left-handed defenseman of note on the market is Bowen Byram, who Buffalo isn’t trading unless it’s similar to the move in which they acquired him (for Casey Mittlestadt); i.e., they receive a player who can help them now that’s also of a similar age. For the Leafs, it would be Matthew Knies. While you can argue the positional value, for the purposes of winning this year, it would be akin to robbing Peter to pay Paul and would require all sorts of follow-up moves for the Leafs to replace a legitimate top-six power forward (almost impossible).
Let’s look at the remaining right-handed shot defensemen and suss out price and fits.
Colton Parayko
Parayko’s name was out there last season, and the cost and his contract proved too prohibitive. He’s signed for another five years beyond this one, taking him to his age-37 season. That risk seems far less daunting now that the salary cap is projected to rise leaps and bounds, and when we add in his strong season, the cost has been driven up.
Parayko’s benefits are clear. He’s a massive (6’6) right-handed defenseman who also possesses a bomb (he has 13 goals this year; the Leafs’ entire defense group has 16 in total), and he has won a Cup playing primarily in a hard matchup role.
It’s a great fit, but at what price?
Nick Kypreos speculated it would take a combination including Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten or Matthew Knies and a prospect. Filling one need (Parayko) to open another (Knies) doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, and that’s before we factor in the age difference.
The Leafs can maybe squint at trading their two best forward prospects, but the pressure is on at that point. If Marner walks and they just traded those two away, it’s less than ideal, to put it nicely. On the flip side, they would be acquiring a legitimate top-four right-handed defenseman for what may amount to two middle-six forwards, if all goes well, some three to five years from now.
I like Parayko; he’s a good player and would help, but it’s possible the price is far too high. For what it’s worth, Elliotte Friedman said he’d be surprised if the Blues traded Parayko. I think it would take something pretty significant to change their mind.
Connor Murphy
Of all the defensemen potentially available, Murphy doesn’t seem to be getting enough attention, given his all-around fit.
As we saw in the summer, Brad Treliving placed a premium on familiarity as he signed Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to long deals, as well as Max Domi, who he had for a year in Toronto before extending. Treliving was in Arizona when they drafted Murphy and when Murphy broke into the NHL. Murphy has been on defense cores with OEL and McCabe (and has played with Domi); plus, he has the size (6’4) Treliving generally covets and has another year on his contract at a palatable $4.4 million.
Murphy checks a lot of boxes, but he doesn’t offer much of anything offensively. He has never produced more than 19 points in a season (his career high is seven goals). The hope would be that he helps unleash an offensive left-handed Rielly or OEL, and whoever isn’t playing with Murphy can drive an offensive third pairing.
In terms of cost, Frank Seravalli said, “It starts with a first-round pick [for Murphy], and you’re adding something else to make it enticing. At the end of the day, Murphy still has limitations, but what you’re paying a premium for is not just the term—only $2 million a year [on the cap].”
With the Seth Jones fiasco in Chicago, I’m not entirely sure if the Blackhawks would retain on Murphy’s contract now through to the end of the next season. They only have one retention spot left for this season, and Jones would surely take priority over Murphy, given the size of his contract and his stated desire to leave.
If no retention means the Leafs can acquire Murphy for their 2026 first, a prospect that’s not one of their best, and some lower-end salary player(s), it’s very enticing.
Rasmus Ristolainen
Ristolainen has quietly turned his career around in Philadelphia and has been a legitimate top-four defenseman this season. He’s another big righty (6’5) signed for two more years at a slightly high $5.1 million — it’s a palatable number, but for the Leafs’ purposes, it would require more money moving elsewhere (or back to Philly).
When we factor in that Ristolainen didn’t serve as a true top-four defenseman until very recently and that he’s never played in a playoff game, we can see why there have reportedly been very few inquiries about him.
On the acquisition cost, Kevin Kurz notes, “It seems likely the Flyers would prefer a first-round pick or a top prospect in exchange for Ristolainen.” It’s an understandable demand by Philadelphia; big, top-four righties with term are a rare commodity. The term is a benefit if you believe Ristolainen has arrived as a full-fledged top-four defenseman. Therein lies the rub compared to Murphy, who also makes less money.
Ristolainen is a good option, but cap space matters, and so does certainty.
Brandon Carlo
Carlo is the youngest defenseman on this list at 28 (he turns 29 in November), and he is signed for two more seasons at just $4.1 million per season. Like his team, he’s not enjoying a great season and is currently tracking for his lowest time on ice per game of his career at 18:42.
Carlo has Stanley Cup Finals experience and has averaged 20:41 per game in his 72 playoff games. He is another 6’5 righty who offers very little with the puck, so again, the aim would be to deploy him alongside an offensive lefty to balance each other out.
His age is tempting, as is his contract to go along with that package; plus, he is an excellent penalty killer. Deployment-wise, he is buried in Boston with about 30 percent offensive zone starts this season and 23 percent last year. He wouldn’t see that usage with the Leafs, who already run the McCabe-Tanev pairing. Carlo would have to provide a rock for Rielly, which he can do.
The bigger question is whether Boston would seriously consider trading Carlo to the Leafs. At his age and salary, he’s an exciting option for an older defense, but it’s hard to picture the Bruins moving him within the division to play for Toronto for years to come.
David Savard
It feels a bit like the Habs missed the boat in selling high on Savard last year. He’s averaging roughly two and a half minutes less per game this season and shows further signs of decline as he turns 35 in the fall. He’s purely a third-pairing defenseman at this point in his career, and he makes a lot of money ($3.5 million), so if you have to pay for his services plus retention on top of it, it strikes me as a last resort.
Luke Schenn
Ol’ reliable needs no introduction here. What you see is what you get with Schenn; he plays simple hockey, he’s good defensively and on the penalty kill, he’s physical and a willing fighter, and he’s limited offensively.
For the Leafs, the interest is twofold. He shouldn’t cost too much; they acquired him for a third-rounder just a few years ago, and he’s on a bit of a bloated contract, so simply taking on his deal for a draft pick should cost about the same, if not less, at this point. The Leafs also know that Schenn fits here.
The fact that Schenn is signed for an additional year is a plus in my eyes, as he’s still a solid regular who can be part of the top seven through next season. He’s not only played here before but paired well with Morgan Rielly, allowing them to push OEL down to anchor a third pairing, as he did for Florida last year. The Leafs would still presumably move OEL up with Rielly (which is really starting to gel) in certain situations (offensive zone draws, down a goal, etc.).
If they can establish that the price for Schenn is, in fact, a third-round pick, I would weigh every other move above against it. While he isn’t flashy, he’ll get the job done and allow the Leafs to either aim higher elsewhere or keep some of their top young assets for the continuity of the organization as a whole.
Conclusion
When we start to sort through all the options and the associated prices, the limited trade market really comes into focus. Schenn looks like an appealing low-cost option, particularly if the Leafs want to swing bigger up front.
On the higher end, the most appealing option for me — considering price — is likely Connor Murphy. He’s excellent defensively and fits stylistically alongside all three of the Leafs’ veteran top-four calibre lefties. He has another year left on a very fair deal, and while 31 isn’t young, he still has good hockey ahead of him. They’d still have to pair it with a forward addition, but the Leafs’ defense, on paper, would look its deepest since they acquired Brian Leetch over 20 years ago.
