The Toronto Maple Leafs appear on the verge of their first major splash of the offseason.
According to Elliotte Friedman, the Leafs are completing a sign-and-trade deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning to acquire defenseman Darren Raddysh. The acquisition cost will be a fifth-round pick in 2026, and the contract is expected to come in at eight years, $68 million ($8.5 million AAV).
TRADE: We’ve acquired defenceman Darren Raddysh from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Toronto’s fifth-round selection in the 2026 NHL Draft
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) June 19, 2026
AFP Analytics projected roughly an $8M x six-year contract for Raddysh. The six-year term was always difficult to envision in the open market; he would have had multiple maxed-out seven-year offers, without question. But with the Leafs trading for him in order to tack on the eighth year, the AAV should have started with a seven. Even at $7.75 x 8, that would have been $62 million total and required nearly a $9 x 7 deal on the open market. Was that waiting for him on July 1? It’s fair to wonder.
In any event, it is the second move in a week to bolster the Leafs‘ defense corps, which was a major issue last season and has rightfully been an early focus under this new regime.
So much for teams not wanting to trade with John Chayka, or Toronto no longer being a destination of interest.
Raddysh was one of the most high-profile free agents on the market, as he led all UFAs in scoring with 70 points. It was a career year for Raddysh across the board. His 22:42 time on ice per game shattered his previous high of 19:06, his 22 goals blew past his previous high of six, and his 70 total points were nearly double his previous high of 37.
That all came on a shooting percentage of 10.4 percent, which is very high for a defenseman but not out of this world — he was tied for 16th in shooting percentage among defensemen who played at least 40 games last season. If nothing else, Raddysh has an absolute bomb of a shot, ranking in the 97th percentile in hardest shot last season. That shot is not a fluke, and some of his production can simply be tied to playing more. He averaged 3:45 of power-play time per game last season, more than double his 1:47 the year before and significantly more than the 44 seconds per game he received the season prior.
In fact, his entire body of work last season was elite. There is really no question that Raddysh had a legitimate top-pairing-calibre season. It wasn’t just empty-calorie production with no backbone to support it. He crushed his minutes across the board, significantly tilting the ice at five-on-five, where he won those minutes 71-49, had over 57 percent of the shot share and expected goals, and these weren’t sheltered, cushy minutes.
The hold-up here, which is a big one, is that this was the first time he performed at this level, and he did it in a contract year. Therein lies the rub with Raddysh: what exactly is the 30-year-old moving forward?
As Dom put it at The Athletic, he is a fairly extreme risk-reward swing. Raddysh was already a late bloomer who didn’t become a full-time NHLer until age 27, and the season he just had is magnitudes better than anything he’s done in the league before. It is fair to question whether he is a true top-pairing defenseman.
Dom mentioned Brandon Montour as an example of a late-blooming defenseman who played well on a high-end team, only to sign a big-money deal elsewhere and immediately fall off. On the flip side, a player who came to mind was Mark Giordano, who really took off at age 30 and ultimately won a Norris Trophy at 35.
For the Leafs, it’s critical that they use Raddysh properly. Of note, Tampa did not use him as a penalty killer at all. He was seventh among their defensemen in shorthanded time on ice per game during the regular season, and he played all of seven seconds there in the playoffs.
That is going to irk some corners of the fanbase when he’s getting paid top-pairing money. But if he can quarterback the Leafs‘ power play effectively and give them very strong five-on-five minutes, he will be worth it. The Leafs couldn’t transition the puck last season, and they have not had a booming shot from the point throughout the entire Auston Matthews era.
How they rework their power play around not only his shot, but also the fact that he’s right-handed, will be interesting to watch. Of note, Mitch Marner quarterbacked the Leafs’ power play effectively the year before as a right shot.
Overall, it’s perfectly reasonable to say that Raddysh is a top-four defenseman, and the Leafs need all the help they can get on defense. Money aside for a second, Raddysh immediately improves their blue line without question and costs them next to nothing to acquire.
Raddysh is a good defenseman and has been for a few years. He’s never been territorially outplayed or had a season in which he was on the ice for more quality chances against than for, though he was sheltered in some of those years before this past one. Even if his production drops to 10-15 goals and 50-60 points, if he maintains that level of five-on-five play alongside that production, he is going to be worth his money.
It is eyebrow-raising that Tampa Bay seemingly lowballed him and didn’t prioritize keeping him. They have been a very good organization for over a decade now and rarely make colossal mistakes like that, but nobody is perfect. They traded an entire draft class for Tanner Jeannot, after all, so we aren’t going to crown them infallible decision-makers.
In fact, you could argue the ramifications here are pretty significant for Tampa as well if Raddysh is indeed a top-pairing-quality defenseman. They not only lost him from their roster, but also watched him go directly to a division rival.
If there is one thing to flag beyond Raddysh’s career year, it’s that he’s not a particularly good skater, which is always a concern.
Looking at the Leafs’ defense group now, they will logically have to move a body out, and it will almost certainly be one of their two offensive left-shots, Morgan Rielly or OEL. It’s hard to imagine them keeping both along with Raddysh.
Philosophically, it will be interesting to see how they approach building their pairings. While you can argue they can simply reunite their previous shutdown pair of Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev, the Leafs have traditionally used Auston Matthews head-to-head quite often.
Even if they rightfully intend to soften those minutes, at the end of the day, he’s still going to need to play in those matchups. They have no other centers currently capable of handling that role, and is Raddysh really going to be on the bench watching Matthews’ line take those assignments against top players?
Do they also really want to usher Tanev, now 37, back into heavy matchup minutes after essentially a year away from that role?
The Leafs have been clear for months now that they want to contend and compete next season. There has been no ambiguity from them on that topic whatsoever. To have any hope of doing so, they need to take big swings; they have too many roster holes and can’t feasibly fill them all with limited assets.
They just took one of those big swings. It has the potential to fill a significant need, but it could also turn into an onerous contract in short order. The beauty will be in the eye of the beholder here, because it’s fair to argue his pros and cons either way.
