Game Day #5, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7 p.m., CityTV)

You might have heard the Maple Leafs are playing against Phil Kessel tonight.

Well, the rumours are true. Word is he even wants to beat his former team.

More than the Kessel storyline, the Leafs should be worried about the fact that they’re paying a visit to a sleeping giant. Even with a four-game sample size, this is bizarre to look at:

Inconceivable! Sidney Crosby has only once, in his entire NHL career, gone five games without a point. I bet Jim Rutherford wishes he never let point-a-game Daniel Winnik slip into free agency. Put simply, they acquired the wrong ex-Maple Leaf over the summer. The results are conclusive.

Matchup history suggests that the odds aren’t in the Leafs‘ favour in terms of stretching the scoreless streak: Crosby has a career 1.6 PPG versus the Leafs in 31 career meetings compared to his overall 1.35PPG career mark, which is simply explained by the fact that the Leafs haven’t been a good team since Crosby entered the League.

The Penguins played with the idea of uniting all of Evgeni Malkin (on left wing), Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel together in practice the other day in an effort to snap out of the early offensive funk. It looks like they’ll start the game with Crosby, Kunitz and Kessel together – that’s been the line since the start of the regular season – but maybe it’s something Mike Johnston will try out if the well is still running dry as the game progresses.

The Penguins are still without  powerplay goal this season.

While we’re taking about crazy statistics based on small-sample sizes: The Leafs are currently fifth in the League in CF% at 54.5. Then again, it isn’t all that crazy when you consider Mike Babcock teams have always, almost without fail, been at or near the top of the League in possession metrics. This is going to be an interesting experiment in terms of what level of impact systems and coaching can make on puck possession despite roster talent limitations. So far, Babcock has come as advertised, as that’s a eight percent increase over last year’s CF% mark.

In terms of the Leaf lines, one can’t imagine anything significant changing from last night’s winning formula. After not allowing a single even strength scoring chance against versus Ottawa, the JVR, Bozak and Komarov line combination owned over 70% of possession last night versus Columbus and combined for three goals.

Update: As it turns out, the injury Bozak left the game with last night will keep him out tonight:

Babcock wasn't sure if the Bozak injury was serious, just that he wasn't able to play tonight. Bozak didn't feel good today (lower body).

— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) October 17, 2015

The pairing of Gardiner and Phaneuf were both plus-threes on the night – Phaneuf, who pocketed a nice assist, is up to four points in four games with a +4; Gardiner broke his offensive goose egg with goal off the point – and owned over 63% of shot attempts while on the ice.

This is a tough situation, going into Pittsburgh tired and playing a rested Penguins team. Let’s see if the Leafs can grind out a result.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lineup

Pittsburgh Penguins Projected Lineup