Dakota Joshua’s first season back in the organization that originally drafted him was a mixed bag.
There were a few stretches when he looked like the heavy, effective bottom-six winger the Leafs thought they were acquiring, but a slow start and a major injury undermined his first season in Toronto.
Joshua finished with 10 goals and 18 points in 55 games (a 15-goal pace over 82) while averaging 12:15 per night. He led the team with 195 hits despite missing 27 games, although the hit total did not always reflect a genuinely impactful physical presence. At his best, Joshua was heavy on the forecheck, protected the puck well down low, occupied the front of the net, and provided some finishing around the crease. Too often early in the season, though, he registered empty-calorie hits without consistently separating opponents from pucks or setting a physical tone.
The Leafs acquired Joshua from Vancouver for a 2028 fourth-round pick in July of 2025 — a buy-low gamble after a difficult 2024-25 season in which he returned from surgery for testicular cancer and produced only seven goals and 14 points in 57 games. Two seasons earlier, he broke out for 18 goals and 32 points in 63 games while playing on an excellent third line with Teddy Blueger and Conor Garland.
The early returns in Toronto were underwhelming. The Leafs initially presented Joshua and Nic Roy as the foundation of a checking line, only to separate them almost immediately. They eventually reunited the pair with Matias Maccelli, and the line produced some decent stretches by grinding, cycling, and defending reasonably well. Joshua and Roy later spent time with Easton Cowan and Bobby McMann, producing some of Joshua’s better early-season results.
Still, Joshua recorded only two goals and three points through October and was outscored 10-3 at five-on-five. By mid-November, he was providing little value beyond some third-unit penalty-killing work. Despite leading the team comfortably in the hit stat, he had not really established himself as a physical force or tone setter.
Joshua received considerable leeway despite the slow start, and by early November, it was fair to wonder how much longer the grace period should last. He was new, the Leafs had surrendered an asset to acquire him, and he carried multiple years of term on a $3.25 million AAV contract, but other forwards were producing more and still moving in and out of the lineup.
The situation eventually became impossible to ignore. Joshua played only 9:25 against Columbus on November 20 and was effectively begging for a trip to the press box. Craig Berube finally made him a healthy scratch the following week, describing his performance with a Randy Carlyle-style “just okay.”
The kick in the pants produced the desired response. In his first game back, Joshua scored in Pittsburgh and played his best game as a Leaf. He delivered a big hit, caused havoc around the crease, and was a noticeable presence throughout the night. The response to the scratch fit with Joshua’s history; when Rick Tocchet publicly called out his conditioning and performance in Vancouver, Joshua responded with his 18-goal breakout season in 2023-24.
Often, the key to Joshua’s success is keeping his feet moving throughout the night. Joshua is big and strong, but he is not a naturally gifted skater. When he’s in shape and motivated to keep his feet in motion throughout shifts and games, he can arrive on the forecheck, lean on defenders, extend possessions, and make his size count.
Joshua followed the Pittsburgh performance with a goal and an assist in Florida. He later scored the game-winner against Chicago during a night when he also hit the post on a rush and was denied on another quality finishing opportunity. He produced three goals and four points in December and finally appeared to be building some momentum.
Joshua also began providing more of the physical response expected from him in high-temperature moments. After Dakota Mermis took a cheap hit against Tampa, Joshua entered the ensuing scrum and dropped the gloves with Maxwell Crozier.
Unfortunately, Joshua’s season was significantly interrupted just as he was beginning to gain traction. He suffered a lacerated kidney after taking a hit into the boards in Detroit on December 28. Joshua remained in Detroit for further evaluation and was out indefinitely. He did not return until February 26 against Florida, nearly two months later.
It was the second consecutive season in which a significant health issue disrupted his ability to establish a rhythm — only 57 games during his final year in Vancouver, and 55 in his first season with Toronto — and both were downright bad luck more than anything else.
His best sustained stretch as a Leaf arrived after his return. By then, with the Leafs playing out the string and beginning to move veterans at the deadline, Joshua was effectively auditioning for a place on the 2026-27 roster. He responded with four goals and seven points in 14 March games despite averaging only 12:23 per night.
The production came on just 16 shots, but Joshua was moving better, becoming more involved physically, and making himself noticeable around the net. He scored in three of four games between March 14 and 25, capped by a goal and an assist against the Rangers.
The previous night in Boston, Joshua stepped in to fight Nikita Zadorov after Easton Cowan initially confronted the 6’7 defenseman for hitting John Tavares from behind. It was the kind of response we wanted to see from Joshua more consistently earlier in the season.
Berube specifically praised Joshua’s late-March play, noting that he was moving better, scoring, and supplying the physicality expected of him. From the beginning of the Leafs’ season-defining five-game homestand in January through early April, Joshua was also one of only two Leaf regulars — the other was Morgan Rielly — with a break-even goal differential at even strength.
The run did not last through the end of the season. Joshua suffered another injury in early April and missed the Leafs’ final four games.
Notably, Joshua scored his 10 goals on only 52 shots for a 19.2 shooting percentage. While that number is elevated, it is not entirely out of line with a career 16.7 percent shooter who generates most of his opportunities around the net. The greater concern is his low shot volume: He went shotless in 25 of his 55 games, making it difficult to produce consistently even with his legitimate finishing ability.
Joshua’s outlook for 2026-27
Joshua enters the third season of a four-year, $13 million contract carrying a $3.25 million cap hit. At that price, the Leafs need more than the odd goal and a gaudy hit total. They need him consistently arriving on the forecheck, establishing a physical presence, extending offensive-zone possessions, and contributing secondary scoring.
The fit is probably on a secondary-scoring line within the bottom six rather than the one tasked with absorbing the more difficult checking assignments. Joshua can hold his own defensively and provide some penalty-killing depth, but he is not an especially quick skater or ideal matchup guy.
Teddy Blueger creates one linemate possibility, knowing Blueger, Joshua, and Garland formed one of the league’s best third lines in Vancouver in 2023-24. Garland was the primary play-driver on that line, so simply putting Blueger and Joshua back together does not guarantee anything. The Leafs would probably still need to identify a winger capable of helping drive play from the other side.
There will also be real competition for minutes. The Leafs added Blueger, Colton Sissons, Brandon Duhaime, Nick Paul, and Jack Roslovic to a group that already included Joshua, Steven Lorentz, and several other forwards fighting for bottom-six roles.
Joshua and Lorentz appeared somewhat redundant last season as two big left wingers who were decent defensively without producing much offense or imposing themselves as consistently as expected. Lorentz is cheaper and the more useful penalty killer, while Joshua carries the higher cap hit and offers more finishing touch.
If Joshua is going to separate himself within a crowded forward group, it will be through his ability to help a bottom-six line establish offensive-zone time with a forecheck and cycle game along with some ability to finish off dirty goals around the net. None of Sissons, Duhaime, Lorentz, or Blueger can finish as well as Joshua can when he’s on his game, and the Leafs are at some risk of becoming too top-heavy from an offensive production point of view with their current bottom-six construction.
At his best, Joshua can give the Leafs a useful, fairly unique combination of size, finishing, physicality, and secondary offense. We saw flashes of it before his kidney injury and a little more sustained version of it during his productive March. The question entering 2026-27 is whether he can stay healthy, keep his feet moving consistently, and make that version of his game more of the norm rather than the occasional flash in the pan.
