Photo: John E. Sokolowski/Imagn Images

The Maple Leafs can take a bit of a breath after a decisive win in Pittsburgh, followed by a two-day break, but big questions remain as they enter the month of December with an 11-11-3 record.

I’ll soon publish some thoughts on the areas for improvement in the team’s five-on-five play as it pertains to their breakouts. For now, let’s get into the Notes, Quotes, Tweets, and Five Things after a 2-1-0 week for the Maple Leafs.

Notes

Easton Cowan, Maple Leafs
Photo: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

– Since his call-up to the Leafs, Easton Cowan has four points in seven games, while averaging 18:03 per game. He’s starting to settle in on the left wing alongside John Tavares and William Nylander, a stark contrast from preseason when I wrote repeatedly that I’d rather see him with the Marlies, given he was initially slated to feature on the Leafs‘ fourth line, on the right side of the ice. The situation has changed significantly since the recall, as Cowan has been a regular top-six forward and is developing while producing.

There are still hiccups. In each game, he’s committed an egregious turnover or two on the defensive half-wall — against Columbus, in particular, he got bailed out late by Joseph Woll — but you can live with it when he’s producing like he is while helping drive a top-six line with his forechecking, tenacity, and skill.

Cowan’s goal against Columbus was a great finish, but what I really liked was the little pick he laid on Zach Werenski as Tavares rolled low, affording Tavares a little extra time and space. The Leafs used to be really good at those pick plays under Mike Babcock (and no, the infamous Justin Holl pick for a penalty was not with Babcock in charge). It’s an effective way to manufacture some space offensively. I’d like to see them incorporate it more. 

– The Cowan-Tavares-Nylander line is in its early days, but in just over 46 five-on-five minutes together, they are just under even in shot attempts (48.89%), just above water in expected goals at 50.64%, and up 5-2 in goals. There is so much talent on the line that if they are essentially drawing even in possession and scoring chances, I would expect them to win their minutes more often than not. 

– We talked last week about the penalty kill looking more than fine without Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, and since those two returned, the Leafs have rightfully kept their rotation in place. Laughton-Lorentz are PK1, followed by Roy-Joshua/Jarnkrok. If all goes well, the Leafs send out Matthews-Knies at the end of the penalty kill to see if they can counter offensively coming out of the PK, as they did effectively in Washington for a goal. Matthews is averaging just 54 seconds per game shorthanded since his return, and Knies is at 57 seconds. Before Matthews’ injury, he was at 1:53 per game, and Knies was at 1:42. 

– Scott Laughton has been a great addition to the penalty kill — their unit has now improved to 15th in the league — but they need him to chip in some offense, too. He has zero points in seven games this season. After the trade last season, he produced just four points in 20 games. Add in two points in 13 playoff games, and he’s up to a grand total of two goals and six points in 40 games as a Leaf.

For reference, Philippe Myers tallied five points in 36 games last season. David Kampf scored five goals and 13 points in 59 games. Sure, playing with Steven Lorentz in a checking role hurts Laughton’s overall ability to produce, but he shouldn’t be this bad offensively. In fact, Laughton has only been on the ice for one Leafs goal at five-on-five through seven games, and it was a solo effort by Nick Robertson to make it 7-2 against Pittsburgh. 

– In the summer, the Toronto Marlies signed several productive AHL veterans, headlined by Travis Boyd and Vinni Lettieri, who both lit up the league in years past. According to Elite Prospects, the Marlies are the fifth-oldest team in the AHL, and their roster has combined to play the sixth-most AHL games of any team in the league. And yet they’ve posted a mediocre .500 record through 20 games.

Now, the AHL is a developmental league, so the bottom line isn’t necessarily their win-loss record, but it’s even worse when viewed from a development standpoint. This is head coach John Gruden’s third season at the helm, and they basically haven’t produced any notable graduates in his time so far. Maybe Alex Steeves, now with Boston? Fraser Minten played just 26 games with the Marlies. Nikita Grebenkin played 39, and we could make an argument about his development if we squint, but he hasn’t seen regular action with Philadelphia.

You can argue the Leafs aren’t flush with quality prospects, but when Sheldon Keefe was with the Marlies, they developed all kinds of players without pedigree. Mason Marchment and Trevor Moore were both undrafted but forged very good NHL careers. Pierre Engvall and Andreas Johnsson were late-round picks. Even previous coach Greg Moore helped develop Bobby McMann, another undrafted free agent. At best, right now, the Leafs are hoping Jacob Quillan will turn into a bottom-six center.

The Marlies haven’t received much attention because the focus has been on the Leafs’ attempts to win the past few years, but they’ve been middling for Gruden’s entire tenure, the roster is old, and there isn’t much to point to regarding development. 

– After finishing 5-5-1 in October, the Leafs followed it up with a 6-6-2 November. It goes without saying, but they will need some sort of proper winning streak to jump up the standings. It has been consistently mediocre to date. 

– No team in the league surrendered more than the Leafs’ 33.9 shots against in the month of November. In fact, no other team was even close. The next highest was the young and rebuilding San Jose Sharks at just 32.1. The Carolina Hurricanes led the league, giving up just 22.2 shots per game. It speaks to how much the opposition is controlling games territorially against the Leafs.

Quotes

Craig Berube, Maple Leafs
Photo: John E. Sokolowski/Imagn Images

“I don’t know if it got away from us. If you look at scoring chances, we out-chanced them in that period, but in the defensive zone, they had the one goal where we just didn’t seal up. We got stick lifted, first of all, and then they made a play up the wall to Ovi. We have to have that backdoor sealed up.

They got roaming around on that next goal, and again, a seam pass got us. It is a couple of seam passes they got us on there. We need to have better sticks and better coverage. And we have to finish. We had some opportunities to finish on some plays; I mean, we had three breakaways, and we have to finish. We didn’t finish.”

– Craig Berube after the Leafs’ loss in Washington

Anyone with a smidge of common sense who was watching this game saw Washington tie it and thought to themselves, “That was only a matter of time.” When the Capitals did tie it, if you were still cheering for the Leafs to collect points, you likely thought, “Hopefully, they can grind this to overtime.” The major takeaway definitely shouldn’t have been, “If only we scored on a breakaway off a counterattack while getting dominated.” If you are focusing only on the results, that’s what you would key on, but they need to focus on the process. The process of getting outshot 2:1 will lead to more losses than wins.

“Overall, it was one of our best games of the year. We pressured them all night and controlled the game. I thought Woll held them in it and was excellent for them tonight.  Between periods, we just had to stick with it and find a way. That’s what we did. We just stuck to the game plan, didn’t change anything, and finally broke through.”

– Logan Thompson, after the Capitals beat the Leafs

Compare the two quotes above. Berube laments a few counterattacks that the Leafs didn’t capitalize on, while Thompson remarks that Washington dominated the game. The Capitals were trailing entering the third period and didn’t feel the need to change their game. “We just had to stick with it… didn’t change anything,” is fairly telling.

It’s a problem when this is the message from the coach.

“’We need more out of you.’ And I agree with him. And I have no arguments with that. I need more out of myself, and so does the team… Everybody’s smart in here and gets the sense of how you’re playing. So, I totally understand it hasn’t gone well for me this year. But there’s a lot of hockey left to turn it around, and that’s what I plan on doing.”

– Dakota Joshua on the message to him from Craig Berube after he was healthy scratched

At 2023 training camp in Vancouver, Rick Tocchett described Dakota Joshua as “[not] in horrible shape, but he wasn’t in the shape that I felt he should be after four months.” Tocchett was hard on Joshua, calling him out publicly at times, and Joshua ultimately responded with 18 goals in 63 games (a 23-goal pace). 

This seems like a player who needs the occasional kick in the butt, but he has also shown he can handle it and respond. He produced a nice game against Pittsburgh, throwing a big hit, scoring a goal, and factoring in on another goal. The question now is how long he can keep it going. 

“Muzz and Gio, they don’t need to do this. They had great careers and, for them to take the time to give back to us young players, I love working with them… Gio is with us on a day-to-day basis, and he’s different opinion, a different voice. Sometimes, he’s a little bit more laid-back, and he’s got a really good mind for the game, especially on the bench during games. I like picking his brain… Muzz will shoot you a text sometimes to tell you what he thinks. What I appreciate about him is that he tells you straight up what (is happening). The biggest message from Muzz to the younger guys is that sometimes less is more. Sometimes, you need to take a deep breath and calm your brain and calm yourself down.”

– William Villeneuve on working with Mark Giordano and Jake Muzzin with the Marlies

I thought this was a cool anecdote about Giordano and Muzzin providing some veteran voices to lean on and help young defensemen grow in the organization. We’ll see if it ultimately amounts to anything. 

Tweets of the Week

Photo: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Stunningly, this is a real stat through two months: The Leafs’ record when surrendering four or fewer goals is 11-3-3. For reference, half the league is averaging under three goals per game right now. If they were even league average defensively instead of the current trainwreck noted above, they would, in all likelihood, start racking up wins. You can understand why Berube is harping on defensive play, but as noted earlier, they wouldn’t have to defend as much if they possessed the puck more. The two go hand in hand.

I knew Oliver Ekman-Larsson was on quite the hot streak, but I didn’t realize it was this special. His 20 points in 25 games have been exceptional as he’s moved from left to right, third pair to first, and everything in between. He has been excellent, and at $3.5 million against the cap, the value is exceptional so far.

24 games in, the Leafs still haven’t led a game wire-to-wire. It’s tough to wrap your head around how porous they have been defensively and how often they’ve missed key players on a nightly basis, and yet the team is not particularly far out of a playoff spot. Maybe they are just mediocre — and this is what mediocre teams tend to do — but there is a lot of meat on the bone if they just competently clean up their act.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Easton Cowan, Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, Toronto Maple Leafs
Photo: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

1.  I think the Leafs have to give the forward lines from their win in Pittsburgh at least a week together, provided everyone remains healthy. The coaching staff has, in fairness, been forced to change their forward combinations almost nightly due to player absences, but the forwards are now fully healthy, and those line combinations at least make sense.

They weren’t as good in Pittsburgh as a 7-2 score would indicate, but each line contributed. From Max Domi combining with Auston Matthews for a nice goal, to the Easton Cowan connection with John Tavares and William Nylander, to the third line grinding a few goals, several things clicked. Players do need consistency together and some time to gel, so it’s time to keep rolling it and see if they can build on some success, while also working through the hiccups without immediately abandoning the combinations.

2.  Last week, we noted that we’d like to switch Troy Stecher and Simon Benoit to get Jake McCabe back on the left with some more puck movement ability beside him. We could see glimmers of the benefits of it when they were forced to do it due to Benoit’s absence on Saturday. McCabe has really struggled to manage the puck on the right, but it cleared up when he moved back to the left, while Stecher picked up an assist. If nothing else, Stecher is mobile and moves the puck cleanly — an upgrade over Benoit hammering it off the wall repeatedly.

This leaves a third pairing of Simon Benoit – Dakota Mermis. Even better, Brandon Carlo is expected to return to practice soon, and when he does, I’d probably start by running McCabe-Carlo as the shutdown pairing, keep the Rielly-OEL offensive pairing together, and pair up Benoit-Stecher.

3.  Between the forwards getting healthy, the lines starting to make sense, Carlo potentially returning soon to round out the defense, and Joseph Woll rounding into form, we can see a path to this Leafs team being pretty good, pretty easily. They definitely shouldn’t be a bottom 5-10 team, on paper, and that’s why we’ve been very critical of the coaching staff to date.

It doesn’t excuse the players — they need to play better — but they’ve been disjointed and have played with poor structure, by their own GM’s admission. The absence of Chris Tanev is still significant, but there’s more than enough here to put together a solid product capable of winning games at an above-average clip. Either they start to prove they’re capable of it through December, or change has to happen.

4.  I think my best guess as to why the Leafs’ coaching staff likes the five-forward power play is actually the entries. Easton Cowan has been effective there early on as they use him as the focal point on entries rather than Auston Matthews. Through that lens, it does make some sense, but they’ve also given up multiple breakaways in just a few games together, and they haven’t scored a goal. They probably(?) aren’t giving up a breakaway per night and are capable of cleaning it up with better puck management to avoid the transition opportunity the other way. Still, there will be a very real counterattack threat no matter what. They need to score at a high clip to justify the risk.

The power play has flashed genuine signs of promise, so I’d probably keep it together for a few more games, but the leash keeps shortening until they start scoring. Florida and Carolina’s PKs will both play them aggressively and eagerly attempt to counter the other way, so it will be a good test to see if they can manage the puck and break through offensively. Against both teams, I’d be pretty quick to pop Oliver Ekman-Larsson onto the top unit if it’s too leaky defensively.

5.  I think it’s not Dennis Hildeby’s fault that he picked up just his first win of the season in six appearances on Saturday against the Penguins. His save percentage is up to .914, and he’s showing he can be trusted with semi-regular duty; to me, for a backup, this generally means playing once a week. The Leafs play three times per week for the next four weeks, and he’s earned some regular duty so far, to say nothing of wanting to keep Woll relatively fresh.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR