Boosted by the return of Jack Roslovic and Easton Cowan’s best effort in a little while, Auston Matthews’ line finished the game at 19-8 in shot attempts and 1-0 in goals in their matchup against Nathan MacKinnon, who left the game with no points.
The Avalanche, who also didn’t score on the power play, still scored five plus an empty-netter.
This was an eventful game, but much of the story is encapsulated in the sequence after the Maple Leafs fought back — via a brilliant Jack Roslovic solo effort — to tie it at 3-3 early in the third period. William Nylander and John Tavares hopped the boards afterward, and Nylander did a fly-by on the defensive-zone half-wall instead of digging in and winning a battle. As the Avalanche poured it on from there, Jake McCabe and Tavares took the same guy, while Darren Raddysh and Nylander were slow to react to the developing danger. Sergei Bobrovsky tried to play defense with his stick instead of playing goalie, and Colorado, with a wide-open Gabriel Landeskog at the back post, took the lead for good.
This was a pivotal moment in the young season, with the team mired in a three-game losing slide on home ice, having fought back from 3-1 down in the game. If there was ever a time to dig in, this would’ve been it. Instead, the Leafs gave it right back in pathetic fashion, as Nylander finished the game minus-four with zero shots on goal in 15:54 of ice time and has now been outscored 21-13 at five-on-five on the season.
In the end, it was yet another game where the Leafs gave away free goals, tried to outscore their problems in net and defensively, and did not succeed. This loss was quite similar to the Montreal one last Saturday: The Leafs finished healthily on the plus side of all the underlying five-on-five metrics, from shot attempts to shots to scoring chances to expected goals, only to lose the goalie battle (even despite a gift from Mackenzie Blackwood to Easton Cowan on the power play late in the second period to make it 3-2), along with some egregious breakdowns leading to free goals. Right now, when the Leafs play poorly, they lose in regulation. When they play well enough to get a result of some kind, they still find a way to lose in regulation.
Post-Game Notes
- The 5-3 goal that ended the game was also a maddening sequence where the Leafs changed slowly and stupidly, given the situation (a flipped clear to the neutral zone), and then OEL didn’t seem at all aware that he was defending a 2v1 at that point. Jim Hiller talked about line changes a bunch during their practice-heavy week last week, too. We’ve seen little progress in the areas Hiller has spoken about emphasizing for improvement, as the Leafs continue to play sloppy hockey with piss-poor details.
- Ryan Tverberg brings an honest effort to the ice every shift despite the talent and size limitations, and that line getting absolutely rinsed in this game — 17-7 in shot attempts for COL, 2-0 in goals — wasn’t on him. It was squarely on the veterans on his line. Tavares got beat by Nic Roy on the 2-1 goal by Landeskog, and Nylander was completely out to lunch in the third period with the game at 3-3, leading to the two five-on-five goals against that line. Tverberg wasn’t the issue, and he stayed on the line for 11:13 of five-on-five time and finished at 15:31 in total TOI. It remains to be seen whether all his effort will translate into much at this level—whether he’ll be able to win pucks back for his line as much as he can in the AHL. But he brings an honest effort and is worth a look over Vinni Lettieri at this point (as would Brendan Brisson and eventually Luke Haymes, when healthy).
- The Leafs’ top line dominated its minutes and generated plenty of chances, and the fourth line played acceptably low-event minutes (1-1 in shots). Two-thirds of the third line (Joshua-Paul-McKenna) was out for the 3-1 Colorado point-shot goal that should’ve been stopped by Bobrovsky, but it largely held its own with an 11-5 five-on-five shot attempt differential in its favour, with a few good chances. That Tavares-Nylander line single-handedly lost them the game.
- … That is, in addition to the customary lack of timely saves from Sergei Bobrovsky. You really wonder, when the Leafs were recruiting Bobrovsky, what promises must’ve been made about the quantity of games started, because this is just getting silly at this point. I’m no goalie expert, but it’s been an obvious trend all season: he’s leaning too hard on the pokecheck crutch. Brock Nelson had an easy finish through the five-hole on the 1-1 because Bobrovsky was again committed to it far too early. The McKenna turnover up ice stranded the Leafs’ forwards, and Darren Raddysh came up empty on a stab at the puck when he didn’t have the support in place to do it, allowing Nelson in alone. But Nelson had a canyon to shoot it through because Bobrovsky was readying for a poke check when Nelson was 10 feet out at the hash marks with ample time to see the five-hole wide open and simply snap it through. He is not tracking the puck well at all, either, as we’ve seen time and again, including most conspicuously on the 3-1 Devon Toews goal. There should be space for trusting in the process of a future HHOFer, but he doesn’t look like a goalie on the verge of finding it whatsoever, and the Leafs are on the verge of digging themselves a hole so deep they can’t get out of it.
- On the power play, where the Leafs somehow only got one opportunity tonight, it’s a tough look when Tavares plays over McKenna on PP1 only to lose the faceoff and get stripped on a subsequent entry. McKenna finished with less ice time than Tverberg, Duhaime, and Blueger in this game. I’m not delusionally calling for McKenna to move to the top line or even take a full-time spot in the top six — I’ve seen the glaring defensive and turnover issues like everyone else watching the games at all closely — but I don’t know how the Leafs finished this game with McKenna at zero offensive-zone starts at five-on-five.
- I recognize that the Leafs’ video team categorizes goalie interference calls in great detail and runs the numbers based on a full accounting of league-wide challenge reviews. But it still seems wrong that Nic Roy can skate into the crease of his own volition, run into Bobrovsky, knock the stick out of his hands — clearly impacting his ability to recover and make the next save — and the coach does not attempt a challenge.
- As part of a great night for him overall, the Leafs are mixing in Jack Roslovic for his strong-side faceoffs (on the right), where he won two of three tonight, including the one leading to Darren Raddysh’s 1-0 goal, Raddysh’s first as a Leaf. Roslovic’s extremely well-taken goal moved him to nine even-strength goals, tied with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for fourth in the NHL. He’s sixth in even-strength points and leads the Leafs in both categories. The top line with Roslovic, Cowan, and Matthews finished at 27-11 in five-on-five shot attempts.
- Up next are two of the top three teams in the league, one of which allows the fewest goals of any team in the league (Minnesota) and one of which is scoring over four per game (Edmonton).
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
