In the offseason, the Maple Leafs won the lottery and were one of the league’s most active teams. It was a welcome change, sparking some reasonable excitement across the fanbase.

It barely took a month, but the honeymoon period is already over for the Leafs’ new management group and coaching staff. Through 19 games this season, the Leafs are below .500 at 8-9-2, the exact same record at this time last season, and are in the middle of a six-game homestand that they have started 0-3, with three very good opponents still left to play. They have lost five of their past six, and all the red flags are firmly in place. Yes, it’s not even American Thanksgiving, and there’s still plenty of time left this season, but it’s getting late early in a crowded Atlantic Division that collects points nightly.

The team lacks any structure, and their wins have come on the backs of pure talent shooting the lights out. They can’t break out cleanly, they are leaky defensively, and they can’t sustain offensive-zone time to mitigate those issues. Almost all the issues most outsiders were concerned about have come home to roost so far: the goaltending gamble on Sergei Bobrovsky, signing a collection of bottom-six checkers who can’t score, and the overall state of the defense, since they didn’t move out a single veteran.

In the offseason, we referred to the reactions to all the Leafs’ activity as some combination of the cheerleader effect and shiny-new-toy syndrome. To be fair, there were a number of good moves: Jack Roslovic has been great, Kirill Marchenko is a significant addition, and at least some of the grinders were needed.

But the bottom-six additions are showing their limitations. Colton Sissons, Nick Paul, Brandon Duhaime, and Teddy Blueger combine for $12.5 million, and none of them show any ability to move up the lineup. Since starting the season with four points in six games, Paul has just two in his past 13 — an empty-netter and a deflected pass.

Against the New Jersey Devils, the Leafs were down by multiple goals, and Zack MacEwen took shifts with Matthews-Cowan and later Tavares-Nylander. This isn’t even a criticism of the coaching staff — it’s a clear indictment of the management group. What were Hiller’s alternatives? Vinni Lettieri? Dakota Joshua? Teddy Blueger? That’s on the management. They locked in a number of checkers with term, and now that they are injured and need players to move up the lineup, they don’t have sufficient options to do it.

Losing two top-six forwards would hurt any team, but it’s also unreasonable to think the Leafs, one of the oldest teams in the league, would go the entire season without that happening. This was far more likely to be the case than the alternative of staying healthy through 84 games. Everyone in their bottom six is brand new save for Dakota Joshua — the new management group did this. It’s not an inherited problem that they are working through, like the defense.

In net, the Bobrovsky gamble is off to a poor start. He’s 3-7-2 with an .886 save percentage and has probably had four starts where you can say he’s been the best goalie on the ice. For a goalie who ranks 11th in salary this season, it’s not a great return on investment if this continues. At least Bobrovsky has real pedigree to play the “it’s still early” card, unlike the forward group, which largely just is what it is.

On defense, the biggest issue might be management not clearing out the veterans in steep decline. They seemingly spent the summer trying to ship out Morgan Rielly without attempting to move out other veterans like Jake McCabe or OEL, who have both shown signs of steep decline to date. The Darren Raddysh signing is truthfully the least of their concerns.

The only other blue-line addition was Emil Andrae, whom they were then forced to trade as part of the Marchenko deal. You don’t hold up the trade due to Andrae, who quite literally went unclaimed on waivers just a week ago. But it’s rather startling that when the Leafs submitted the trade, it was rejected because of the tagging rules, and they were then forced to include him to make it legal. That means they clearly had no idea about the tagging rules, which calls their credibility as a management group into question.

Do I think they can shed salary and get out of it? Yes. Do I think it’s a big problem that they quite literally didn’t know the operating rules of the league they work in? Also yes. Knowing and understanding the rules is the absolute bare minimum of a management team, and you can’t lipstick that pig any other way — they obviously didn’t know.

So, the honeymoon is over now. They will likely get Marchenko back in the coming weeks, and he will make a notable difference. At some point, you’d like to think Bobrovsky has an uptick in play, too. But the games are coming fast and furious now; they are digging themselves a deeper hole by the day, and after a summer filled with activity, reality is starting to hit hard. The honeymoon is over. Now what?

Notes

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  • After a five-game point streak where he put up seven points, Easton Cowan is coming down to earth and is in the midst of a four-game pointless streak. Even so, of all the disappointments happening right now within the team, he’s on the right development path overall. Cowan’s holding down a top-line spot and doesn’t look out of place in tough matchups. Even as the offense has dried up, he hasn’t been on for a 5v5 goal against in those four games (and they actually won their minutes 2-0 vs. Utah; he just didn’t collect any points during it). Cowan is up 15-11 at 5v5, which is only bettered by Matthews’ 17-11 count.
  • Cowan didn’t really need to step in on Dougie Hamilton against the Devils, but Hamilton had been running around trying to throw hits for a few periods and, ultimately, it’s a show of frustration from a player who knew his team was getting it handed to them. He’s one of the only Leafs over the past decade with that type of sick-of-this-crap attitude. Cowan remains one of the biggest positives for the franchise so far this season.
  • Also coming down to earth is the penalty kill. Since the Oilers scored a late power-play goal against them, the Leafs are 25th in the league, killing just 68 percent. It’s not like teams are suddenly opening them up and scoring a bunch of backdoor tap-ins — they are generating plenty of shots, just like they were when the Leafs’ penalty kill was red-hot, and now they are going in. There was nothing fancy about Montreal’s goal, for example; they just worked it around and teed off. Until they can start consistently preventing teams from entering cleanly and setting up, it will probably continue to ebb and flow like it has, or worse, just stay bad.
  • Over the past three seasons, Brandon Duhaime has gotten into 25 fights. By season, he went seven, 10, then eight last season. The Leafs gave him a three-year deal, the longest of his NHL career, and he hasn’t fought once this season (he does have a preseason fight after he got blown up on a hit and didn’t like it) as they hit the quarter pole this week. Duhaime is a good fourth-liner who is dependable defensively, effective on the cycle, and a solid penalty killer. He’s been a positive overall in the context of his role and has been a key driver on an effective fourth line. At the same time, part of his game is bringing energy, and the team has lost five of their past six and has lacked energy in a number of those games. You’re looking for momentum shifts in these situations, and for a player who has generally brought that in his career, he hasn’t really come close.
  • The Leafs have won only three games this season while scoring fewer than five goals — against the Islanders, the Sharks, and the Canucks. It’s not a winning recipe, and they can’t beat any of the good teams unless their top players light them up — which is clearly not sustainable. They need to find a winning recipe to grind out proper wins in a sustainable way, not just outscore their problems.

Quotes

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“I feel like I haven’t had puck nearly as much as I usually have in neutral zone, O-zone. I don’t know exactly what that is coming down to but, I mean, that’s something trying to get sorted.”

William Nylander, on his play this season.

Nylander is owning just 44.3 percent of the shot attempts at 5v5, which is by far the lowest of his career (47.88 last season is his full-season low). His expected goals count is 40.6, far below last season’s 47.5, and he’s getting outscored 13-18 despite a fairly productive start: 22 points in 19 games while shooting what would be a career-high 19.6 percent. There’s no denying Nylander is among the league’s most skilled players, and he remains a true gamebreaker who doesn’t need much to score.

But his game has been trending down for three seasons now. You can blame the past two on Berube hockey — which he clearly had little interest in playing — but then his numbers should have shot up this season the way Auston Matthews’ have. Some of that is due to linemates — Paul hasn’t been good, McKenna is also weak defensively, Tavares is on the downturn, etc. But a large part of it is squarely on Nylander. It’s not like his numbers have been good alongside Matthews, either.

You can live with some warts when the team is ultimately tilting the ice and winning his minutes, as he has for years, but Nylander is 30 now; it’s seemingly starting to catch up to him, and he’s not doing any of those things right now. In fact, he hasn’t for a few years at this rate. By his own admission, he knows he doesn’t have the puck nearly enough.

“I thought we actually played pretty well yesterday, and I think we emptied the tank yesterday. I don’t want to make excuses, but it’s pretty hard coming back when you play a lot of guys, and then you miss a few guys who are important players for you on the second side of it.

“The tank’s already down a little bit, and then you come back again, and you lower it again. We didn’t have it. That’s the bottom line. Just didn’t have it.”

Jim Hiller, after the Leafs lost to the Devils.

The Devils also played the night before and were at the tail end of a three-games-in-four-nights trip. They also had to travel overnight to Toronto, whereas the Leafs have been home for a literal week, which is quite rare in the NHL. Yes, the Leafs were undermanned, but it sure felt like a lot of excuses (“I don’t want to make excuses, but…”) from the head coach as the team lost for the fifth time in six games and for the third straight to start this homestand. The standards should be much higher, and the coach’s leadership should reflect that. I thought this was incredibly weak and indicative of their play.

“It’s on the veterans to play better. It’s not on an 18-year-old.”

Chris Tanev, after McKenna’s game against Montreal, where he had two turnovers leading directly to goals against.

Good for Chris Tanev, who is right. The Leafs have a number of injuries right now, and they really need their veterans to step up to get them through it. Unfortunately, Tanev is one of those veterans, and his game is rapidly declining. At his peak, he used to take on tough matchups and still drive play up ice with his ability to think through forechecks and make good outlet passes.

He’s not even getting the toughest assignments on a nightly basis anymore, and he’s still putting up career-worst numbers in shot attempts and expected goals, on top of battling health issues. Father Time is undefeated, but they really needed Tanev to be a key defensive driver for the team to have any success, and unfortunately, he hasn’t been close even when he’s been available.

Tweets

Jake McCabe, Toronto Maple Leafs
Photo: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

One of the major developments so far this season is Jake McCabe seemingly falling off a cliff. He’s been good for pretty well a goal against per night, and he is supposed to be their best left defenseman defensively. Against the Devils, Jesper Bratt turnstiled him off the rush, but he was bailed out by Anthony Stolarz. He’s not defending well at all, and his skating has lost a step so far. He was in the 86th percentile in speed last season and is down to the 65th this season — it’s still good, but for a player like him, losing a step has made a notable difference.

No question the Leafs added some legitimate value over the offseason. It also has to be weighed against what they had last season — Bobby McMann was a legitimate top-six forward, as was Matthew Knies. Scott Laughton and Nic Roy were, at worst, on par with the Leafs’ current depth players. Will any of their depth adds outscore Nick Robertson’s 16 goals last season? Or Max Domi’s 36 points? Or Matias Maccelli’s 39? Most of those players are not particularly missed, but once we look past Roslovic, Marchenko, and winning the lottery to draft McKenna, there was more versatility to viably move up the lineup.

Perhaps the most concerning thing of all is this: The Leafs have generally been shooting the lights out and scoring at a good clip. Matthews and Nylander are one of the most productive duos in the league. Roslovic has been great. Marchenko was/is a point-per-game player. Tavares and Cowan have been productive, and so has McKenna. And yet they are where they are in the standings.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

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1.  I think the sooner the Leafs realize they don’t have the players to consistently break out cleanly and adjust accordingly, the better. Their defense can’t beat forechecks or lead clean breakouts with any sort of regularity. They don’t have the legs or the skill to do so. When they do get it to their wingers, most of them are weak on the walls, too.

We have seen countless gifted goals from Cowan and McKenna; Duhaime strangely went cross-ice to nobody against the Habs for a goal against; Nylander prematurely blows the zone; and so on. Marchenko is probably the one winger who, when he gets it on the wall, you can comfortably feel good about what happens next. It’s not pretty, but this has to be a chip-and-chase team that leans into their speed.

Their attempts to break out are just generally leading to easy goals against, with almost no positive benefits up ice. It’s not like this is a young defense corps that will learn through mistakes, either. It’s the oldest group in the league. It’s not pretty, but this is what they have, and the sooner they realize it, the better.

2.  I think Cole McWard played a pretty solid debut game in tough circumstances against New Jersey (the Leafs were bad, and they played a good team that outplayed them). I wouldn’t mind keeping him in the lineup, and I’d probably look to run 11-7. The Leafs don’t have enough good forwards as it is right now, so going with 11 allows them to mix and match the select good ones and spread the defensive minutes across a unit where too many players are struggling while playing bigger minutes than they should be.

3.  I think there’s no legitimate explanation for Vinni Lettieri continuing to play NHL games at this point. He’s 31 — there’s no upside here, and he’s not presently NHL quality, either. Call up Brendan Brisson, who is six years younger, has first-round-pick pedigree, and is tearing up the AHL, and/or Aatu Raty, who is a year younger than Brisson and can play center (if Sissons is out too, call up both, obviously). They might ultimately play just like Lettieri, but they have to try different options. In nine games, we’ve seen more than enough of Lettieri.

4.  The Leafs’ three opponents this week — Colorado, Minnesota, and Edmonton — have three of the best lines in the league. If Roslovic is back, they can put together the Cowan-Matthews-Roslovic line, but if Roslovic remains out, I think they need to move up Nylander and ride their top players while asking them to carry it. There’s no getting around it.

When they beat Colorado, Nylander and Matthews were the two best players on the ice after the first period. Matthews and Cowan were great in Edmonton. You can’t divide and conquer against those teams. You have to go head-to-head, and your big dogs need to deliver. Plain and simple.

5.  I do think John Chayka should hold some sort of media availability over the next week or so. Even Brad Treliving held one when his team started with this exact same record. Some will say, “What’s the point/why bother?” but he’s the leader of the organization, and they are not in good shape right now. You can’t hide from it and let everyone else answer for it.

It also gives Chayka the opportunity to get his message out there and try to control some aspects of the narrative. It would be rather weak if they said nothing at all, as they dig themselves into a hole they will have a very difficult time getting out of.

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