The Toronto Maple Leafs have their first win of the 2026-27 season, and it’s a regulation win at that.

It has been a whirlwind few days with the Kirill Marchenko trade and the quick turnaround to the season opener. They didn’t get the result they wanted in that game, but it was nice that they could get right back to it the next night with a chance at redemption.

This wasn’t a pretty win, but it felt rather comfortable until they gave up a late shorthanded goal.

The Leafs raced out to an early lead and defended it the rest of the way. They still generated a number of looks while ahead but couldn’t get the next one to blow the game open. At the other end, the Islanders experienced a lot of difficulty solving Anthony Stolarz.

Watching the game, I thought back to the fourth-last game of the previous season, not even six months ago. Pete DeBoer made his coaching debut for the Islanders, Auston Matthews had just undergone surgery, Marlies such as Luke Haymes were making their NHL debuts, and the Leafs went to the Island and lost 5-3 in a game where the score flattered them. They were outshot a ridiculous 44-16 in as uncompetitive a game as you will ever see.

Needless to say, the situation has really changed since then.

In tonight’s game, the Leafs did get off to a bit of a slow start. The Islanders registered the first five shots of the night. The Leafs’ fourth line was the first unit to actually possess the puck in the offensive zone with a simple forechecking approach, and that started to tilt play back toward the Islanders’ end. The fourth line also drew a penalty via Brandon Duhaime in the first five minutes of the game.

A few minutes later, Easton Cowan’s great forecheck led to a turnover. Nick Paul got a shot off it, then cycled it low to Cowan, who worked a flip pass back to Paul in the high slot. Paul made a great feed to Colton Sissons in front, who deflected it home to open the scoring.

That goal really went to the Leafs’ legs, and they started to build some good offensive-zone sequences, eventually leading to another penalty; both Islanders penalties came in their own end while defending. The top unit generated one good look in the slot, but the second unit came out sharp and direct, and they were rewarded with a goal.

Morgan Rielly made a great keep-in, batting a clearing attempt out of midair before passing it to Jack Roslovic on the half-wall, where Roslovic made a good read to shoot for a rebound. He adjusted his angle and put it low; it wasn’t a real attempt to score. The rebound sat right there for Cowan, who finished it into the wide-open net.

The Leafs kept pushing and drew a third penalty. On the delayed call, Auston Matthews teed up Kirill Marchenko for a one-timer, but he didn’t appear to get all of it. The top unit again couldn’t really sync up, and again the second unit went out and was dangerous. This time, Gavin McKenna just missed Paul in front on a bit of a 360-degree pass.

It didn’t take long, but we’re already going to talk about officiating because the refs pretty much ruined the majority of the second period for me. The Islanders came out as you would expect a team down 2-0 to—with some pushback. But they had real issues generating proper looks, and none of it was particularly dangerous. Then the refs entered the picture.

Just under four minutes into the period, John Tavares was assessed a slashing penalty after an Islanders player actually tried slashing him while Tavares held the puck, breaking his own stick in the process. That allowed the Islanders to generate some proper zone time and looks, but the Leafs killed it off… only to get another terrible penalty called against them a few minutes later. This time, Nick Paul’s stick lift got him two minutes for hooking.

While the Islanders didn’t score on either, the touches and zone time went to their legs and confidence, and it got them going. They pushed hard, but Stolarz again stood tall.

In the final quarter of the period, as play returned to normal, the Leafs generated a ton. Sissons hit the bar, and Nylander and McKenna went on a mini 2v1. Matthews got to a rebound in front off a good OEL shot, and Tavares had a good look in the slot on a delayed penalty. They then went to a power play to close the period and generated a few more looks.

A good chunk of the third period followed the same script, as the Leafs were in a good spot early on until penalty calls struck. The top line had good zone time going; McKenna and Nylander created a 2v1 where they mistimed what should have been a tap-in, and Stolarz made a great save on Duclair in tight. Again, though, the penalties arrived.

This time, it was an incredibly soft call against Marchenko for lifting a stick. Just like on the first two, the Islanders didn’t score, but they generated zone time and offense. The Leafs killed it off, only to take another penalty right after. That call, on Jake McCabe, is whistled every time.

At the end of that kill, Nick Paul made a great play to muscle old friend Matias Maccelli off the puck and draw a penalty in the process. That should have been an opportunity to ice the game. Instead, the Islanders got back into it with a shorthanded goal that simply can’t happen.

On what was a 2v2 rush up ice — which you have to expect from the Islanders down two late in the third period — William Nylander tracked back only to let up for a second. That let Emil Heineman get behind him to create a small 2v1 with daylight to receive a cross-ice pass and score.

We’ll say this much about Jim Hiller: He immediately yanked the whole unit off, and Nylander didn’t touch the ice again the rest of the night. I’m not sure we can say that either of their previous two coaches would have done the same thing, especially in game two of the season. It was a brutal play, and Nylander was rightfully benched for it.

After a relatively stress-free game, save for some bad calls, the Leafs were suddenly in one, and the Islanders made a legitimate push. The Islanders recorded 10 shot attempts after they made it 2-1, but only three reached Stolarz. The final few minutes became an unnecessary nail-biter that cast a bit of a shadow on the game, but all in all, the Leafs were clearly the better team. Some ridiculous game management from the refs, as well as a self-inflicted wound on the power play, made it far more interesting than it needed to be.

Post-Game Notes

  • The Leafs set the tone for this game and how they want to play on the first shift when they matched up the Nick Paul line against the Bo Horvat line at puck drop rather than the Matthews line. That gave the Matthews line an easier matchup (which they produced nothing within, but alas). It’s a winning recipe if the Paul line can handle the workload. Against Montreal, the Matthews line took the Nick Suzuki matchup, so it might not always be the plan—nor should it be, to be honest. But knowing they have that as a viable option really changes things for the coaching staff.
  • The Nick Paul line with Easton Cowan and Colton Sissons was the Leafs’ best line on the night. Cowan was arguably their best player, contributing at five-on-five, on the power play, and on the penalty kill. In fact, his 13:22 on the night was the ninth-highest among forwards, which was far too low. If he keeps playing like this, he’ll give them no choice but to play him more.
  • I’ve been critical of Colton Sissons on L3, but credit where it’s due: He was fantastic in this game and easily could have scored a hat trick. Beyond his goal, he hit the bar and had a straight 1v1 with the goalie. He was excellent on the penalty kill, as was the whole team, really. Part of that, it’s fair to say, is because the Islanders really lack talent, especially with Mat Barzal out. This was not a particularly inspiring NYI lineup.
  • After a tough debut, Darren Raddysh played much better in this game. He recorded a team-high four shots on net, moved the puck a lot more cleanly, and was involved in some decent scoring chances. Like a lot of Leafs right now, he needs to settle in. The power-play issues haven’t really been on him.
  • I still think it was a suspect decision to airdrop Marchenko onto the top power-play unit. The best thing you can say about the man advantage is that the second unit looked good. There’s a world where they score on the power play against Montreal and come away from these two nights with four points. Marchenko, understandably, had no clue where to go or what was happening. They practiced with Roslovic there, changed it at the last second, and it looks like it. There was no real reason to rush that decision.
  • The Leafs were closing out the final few minutes with a Duhaime–Matthews–Sissons line. It’s nice to have the handedness options on the faceoff after an icing, but the Leafs couldn’t come up with the puck on the scrummed draw. When they cleared it late, a makeshift line of Tavares, Paul, and Blueger hopped the boards, with OEL–Stecher coming on following a long McCabe–Tanev shift. This was a big criticism we made of Craig Berube last year: He rarely shifted useful players around depending on the game situation or how individuals were performing that night. We never saw a Laughton–Matthews–Roy line to close a game, for example (it would have been viable, with three faceoff men to boot!). It didn’t take Hiller any time at all to make some smart swaps.
  • Bo Groulx was the only forward on the team to play under 10 minutes, and it was just barely under, at 9:49. Matthews was the only forward to play 20-plus, at 20:04. The next-highest after that was Marchenko at 18:16, with Sissons at 11:22. In other words, it was a very balanced forward deployment.
  • Chris Tanev led the team with 20:39, followed by Raddysh at 20:36 and McCabe at 20:19. OEL posted the low mark at 15:30. Again, they spread out the minutes pretty well across the lines and pairings.
  • It’s only two games, and Matthews himself is adjusting to new linemates and coming back from a significant injury, but I won’t lie: It’s a bit disappointing that he’s pointless through two games with just four shots on net. His skating has been fine, but he’s not exactly skating around defenders, either. The line has been very promising, and they will be fine as a unit overall, but so far a lot of it is Marchenko driving things with his combination of power and speed. The hope is that Matthews can score a goal soon, it goes to his confidence, and he heats up. But I would like to see a lot more from him; as we all know, he’s capable of much more.
  • Anthony Stolarz was awesome in this game while allowing only one goal. He was credited with 1.73 goals saved above expected in all situations via Natural Stat Trick. The Islanders were whipping pucks to the net and trying to generate traffic, but his rebound control was excellent. Stolarz was constantly putting pucks to the corners and away from traffic or swallowing them up whenever he had the opportunity. Working in his favour was that the Islanders put a lot of shots on net early, but none were particularly threatening. That allowed Stolarz to feel the puck and get into the game rather than truly testing him in any capacity. He ran with it from there.

  • The McKenna–Tavares–Nylander line was out-attempted a rather ridiculous 19-3 in this game. So far, this line is looking exactly as we predicted: three weak defensive players on a line that also lacks any sort of forechecker or physical presence to create space. Yes, they will have the odd rush sequence or highlight-reel play, and yes, McKenna in particular needs time to figure out the league. But it’s hard to picture this becoming any sort of serious line at any point. It’s fundamentally constructed poorly.
  • It is so nice to have Chris Tanev back. He is so good and just calms the game right down. His reads on the penalty kill are on time, and he knows when to bear down physically and make a play or grind a puck out. He was excellent on the penalty kill as well. Tanev changes the complexion of not just the defense, but really the entire team. He’s a pro’s pro and an elite defender on a team that quietly has a lot of players who aren’t particularly good at defending. He makes Jake McCabe a lot better, too. Protect him at all costs.
  • The team’s overall defending has been solid through two games. Most of their goals against have come from brain cramps rather than fundamental structural issues or breakdowns. Of course, you don’t want those brain cramps, but other teams have good players who can score, too. For the most part, the defensive-zone coverage has maintained good layers and held up well. It’s the silly stuff like tonight’s 2-1 goal that they need to get out of their game.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights: Maple Leafs 2 vs. Islanders 1

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