The Maple Leafs were plagued with many problems last season, but when it came to their results, their biggest issue was their inability to win within their division. They posted a winning record against two of the other three divisions and were .500 against the third.

While it is early — and the Leafs’ overall play has looked better — their struggles against division rivals continue so far. They are now 0-2 against divisional opponents, with both losses coming at home. Making matters worse, Ottawa was down to five defensemen for nearly 50 minutes after Jake Sanderson, easily their best defenseman and arguably their best overall player, left the game.

In the NHL, you have to make the playoffs through your division. 28 of 84 games are intradivisional, and those teams regularly walk into Toronto and come away with two points. It is early to talk about results, but the reality is the Leafs needed a result from this game.

The game got off to a slow start. Ottawa sent out its Shane Pinto matchup line, and Jim Hiller immediately signaled he was fine with it by sending the Auston Matthews line out against them. That meant the Nick Paul line drew Tim Stützle—the same matchup assignment it drew against the Islanders’ top line in the previous game—while John Tavares received offensive-zone shifts.

The first real chance came off a Darren Raddysh rush. He faked a slap shot and found Paul cross-ice, but Paul couldn’t get as much on the shot as he wanted. Pinto then had a glorious chance in the slot but couldn’t pick the corner. Last season, Ottawa was one of the league’s best possession teams; they play a really boring style, but they are tight, suffocating, and forecheck very well. The Leafs struggled to break through it and were repeatedly stuffed on their breakouts through the first half of the period.

The Leafs’ next good scoring chance again came from Paul, who drove the net from below the goal line to cause some chaos. Shortly afterward, Sanderson’s night ended, and the game really opened up for Toronto. From the point, William Nylander threw a puck toward the net, where Tavares was on the doorstep but couldn’t convert the rebound. Teddy Blueger hit the bar on a deflection of a Raddysh point shot; Jack Roslovic hit the bar in tight off a Kirill Marchenko setup; Easton Cowan had a chance off the rush, and Gavin McKenna applied a nice tip on an Oliver Ekman-Larsson point shot. The Leafs couldn’t break through.

After all of that, Ottawa opened the scoring. Troy Stecher hit Paul in the neutral zone with what was, truthfully, a nice, clean breakout pass. But Carter Yakemchuk made a good read and stepped up, and Paul tried to handle the puck instead of one-touching it to Colton Sissons on the wall. Marchenko, who started the breakout sequence, didn’t read the turnover at all and instead went for a change. Ottawa swiftly turned up ice for a 3v2 and converted.

The second period got off to a great start as Matthews tipped home a Morgan Rielly point shot for his first goal of the season. #34 played a fairly pedestrian first period, but the goal really went to his legs, and his line dominated its next shift. Sergei Bobrovsky was bailed out after a giveaway shortly after the tying goal, and from there, the Leafs poured it on.

Shots were 14-4 in the middle period, and five-on-five attempts were 21-4. They were rewarded with another goal — this time on the power play — as Marchenko scored his first as a Leaf. A great pass from Raddysh sent him in alone down low, where he finished on the backhand. This is the Leafs’ power play in a nutshell: There are five legitimate shooters, and one of them will always be open. Find that guy, and he has a good chance of scoring.

Despite all the pressure, the Leafs couldn’t take the lead into the third period. The second turned on a nonsensical penalty by Cowan. The Leafs had the lead, the momentum, and control of the puck in their own zone, but Cowan was reckless with his stick, high-sticking a Senator as the Leafs broke out. There was no reason for it, and the power play gave Ottawa some life.

As the penalty ended, Raddysh made a nice rush up ice and ripped a slap shot. The forwards changed, and nobody covered for him. Thomas Chabot got to the rebound and moved it up ice, giving the Senators a 2v1 that they buried. Look at where the forwards are when Chabot receives the puck:

There is no reason whatsoever for Ottawa to get a 2v1 out of this. But it’s the Tavares line yet again; it’s an inexperienced kid playing with a skilled winger who has always been bad defensively, and it’s continuing to go exactly as expected. They are a free goal against on a nightly basis, and it’s difficult to picture it changing anytime soon.

It was particularly disappointing to be tied after two periods, given how dominant the Leafs were in the middle frame. Over the first 40 minutes, they owned just under 70 percent of the shot attempts and were heavily tilting the ice against Ottawa, save for two careless mistakes.

As good as the Leafs were in the second, they were equally dreadful in the third. Through the first 13 minutes, Ottawa outshot them a ridiculous 14-1. Part of that came from two penalty calls, including a particularly frustrating first one: a clear dive by the player who dives every single night, Tim Stützle.

The Leafs went to an early power play and hit the bar twice through Marchenko and Nylander, but otherwise, it was dreadful to watch. The eventual game-winner came at the end of an Ottawa power play. Nick Paul was beaten by a cross-ice pass through the seam, and although Fabian Zetterlund fanned on the one-timer, the knuckler created a juicy rebound that Ottawa easily buried.

Perhaps most disappointing was how weakly the Leafs pushed for a tying goal afterward. They even got a power play and didn’t record a shot on net. The only chance of note was a good Matthews look that he ripped off the bar—by our count, their sixth of the night.

Post-Game Notes

  • This was the third straight game in which the Leafs scored just two goals. They are creating chances at a decent clip—they have been credited with 32 high-danger chances so far, which is reasonable although not spectacular—and it is hard to see them not scoring more if they keep it up. But we’re not going to pretend it isn’t frustrating to watch in the meantime. You can’t regularly win games 2-1 in this league.
  • Some confusing coaching down the stretch: When you are down a goal with a minute left and have full possession of the puck, even in your own zone, you have to pull your goalie and move up ice as a six-on-five unit. Instead, the coaching staff left Bobrovsky in, the Leafs went up ice with five skaters, and they couldn’t establish possession in the offensive zone. In the end, they didn’t even manage to pull him.
  • The coaching staff kept sending John Tavares out for faceoffs, and he kept getting rinsed. He lost four in a row in a minute and a half of game time. These weren’t just losses in scrums; he was getting cleaned out. Tavares went 3-for-8 in the circle last game and 7-for-20 tonight.
  • We understand that Gavin McKenna is a young talent and the Leafs want to nurture him, but there’s no way he should be on the ice with the goalie pulled over Easton Cowan right now. Cowan has straight-up been better to date. McKenna tried winding up for a rush and was easily stopped at the blue line. It might have looked fun for a second, but it was completely unrealistic.
  • Darren Raddysh played 22:46, while every other Leafs defenseman finished between 17:08 and 18:23. The minutes have been very balanced to start the season. While everyone on the outside has been discussing the need for a defenseman—and I get it—the defense has been far from the problem. The goals against came from breakdowns and a lack of support from the forwards, and those same forwards are scoring twice per game—nowhere near enough.
  • Sergei Bobrovsky was the only reason the Leafs had a chance to tie this game late. He was excellent as the team got dog-walked in the third, making several huge saves. His .897 save percentage doesn’t do his performance justice. He was really good, which was encouraging.
  • Nick Paul played a fairly significant 17:03, fifth among Leafs forwards. His line out-attempted Ottawa 11-2, and he held a 6-1 edge against Stützle, whom he saw a lot of until the score and game situation changed. Paul has been excellent so far, and his line has been great. If this continues, the Leafs won’t have much choice but to move him up and find another spot for Tavares.
  • Just 12:07 for Cowan and 12:46 for McKenna. Cowan wasn’t great in this one by any stretch, but his line was good; he contributed to it, and he clearly has the confidence to make a play right now. Sometimes it borders on overconfidence; there were a few occasions when Cowan could have passed and elected not to. It’s hard to argue he isn’t one of their six best forwards right now, though, and he’s not playing enough. Conversely, McKenna very much looks like an 18-year-old so far. He’s struggling to find room and space, and his shot is not a threat. Other than the power play, where his talent has flashed, it’s been a tough start at five-on-five. We’ll continue to beat the drum that the Leafs are doing neither him nor themselves any favours with his current linemates.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights: Senators 3 vs. Maple Leafs 2

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