GM John Chayka joined Real Kyper & Bourne to discuss the Maple Leafs’ 1-1-0 start, the role of data in player evaluation, the Kirill Marchenko trade, his confidence in the defense corps, and the development of Gavin McKenna and Easton Cowan.
After a busy week, a huge trade, and the opening few games, have you caught your breath and been able to take in where you are and what you’ve seen?
Chayka: I think it’s been a good start. Honestly, new coach, a lot of new players, a lot of new faces, new ownership, and a shortened training camp; you put it all together, and it’s a bit of an experiment, I’d say.
I thought we played well out of the gates. The team was good against Montreal. I thought we carried play well, saw a lot of good things, and didn’t get the result. Then we probably didn’t play as well against the Islanders and won. That’s kind of how the game goes.
Overall, a lot of good contributions throughout the lineup. The new guys, I think, are acclimating themselves well. The coaching staff did a nice job of getting guys prepared. Lots of things to build off, for sure.
How do you tease out the early information versus all the newness? How much stock do you put in one or two games with new players and systems? How hard is the evaluation early on?
Chayka: Try not to overanalyze it. I think we’ve got to give ourselves a chance here to get everyone on the same page. New systems, new line management, and all the things you just mentioned, too. You’re always looking for effort, performances, and trying to find some signs of some players that are coming together for the team. I think we’ve seen some of those signs.
Otherwise, even with this shortened training camp, your evaluation horizon is probably a little bit longer, too. You can call them regular-season games; they’re still games three and four for a lot of these players.
I think it’s just been a mental adjustment for a lot of guys, too. We’ve had guys that played really well in the preseason that haven’t then played as well in the regular season, and vice versa. It’s a bit of a mixed bag.
To your point, I don’t think we want to overanalyze anything, but I think it’s good teaching clips. We had a good practice today after a good day off. I think it’s still just fundamentals and building blocks, as far as I see it.
Keith Pelley made it clear that the next hockey operations leader needed a deep understanding of data and artificial intelligence. How has that helped shape what Leafs fans are watching today?
Chayka: I think that was one of Keith’s principles. He’s looking down the field and trying to evaluate not what’s happened historically, but looking 10 years down the road and saying, “Where could things be headed?” Anything we’re doing right now, the whole economy seems to be buoyed by AI, or at least the expectation of AI and how it’s going to impact all of our lives.
I’d say professional sports is some balance of all that. I think that’s the beauty of sport. It’s the ultimate test of humans coming together around a common mission and goal, and going out on the ice and trying to achieve that.
As we think about integrating intelligence or artificial intelligence, or whatever you want to call these things, my perspective has always been: If you can have the best evaluators going to the right games and collecting the right information, doing it in a very prescriptive way, and then we have the best analysts making the best adjustments and analyzing things at a deeper level than you can watch live—because live is happening live, obviously—I think if you put those two things together, you get the best vision of what a player is and what a player could be projected to be.
Together, that’s a powerful approach. But I’d also say, whether it’s the sports science efforts we put together, whether it’s the different ways in which we travel and train and practice, there are a lot of ways in which people are trying to find a better way or a new way, and then trying to measure whether that is truly the case.
I think that’s an iterative process. I don’t think you arrive on anything. You’re asking a lot of questions and trying to find new and different ways to improve and be better than the rest of the league at those things. I’d say that’s always a journey.
Looking at your lineup, is there evidence that you’re bigger, stronger, faster, or paying more attention to detail? You mentioned data suggesting Matthews is skating better than he has in five years. Can you share what that data is?
Chayka: If you’re talking about some of the skating data, yes, there’s some of that. As I said, on the sports science side, as we talk about how we train and how we practice, there’s more of a data set there to draw some conclusions.
In terms of the team play and how we see the team, and changing any of our forecasts or anything like that, two games is a pretty small sample size. It’s more anecdotal at that stage, and how the coach is getting across their systems and whether or not guys are buying in or executing the things we’re looking to do.
On those two games, we do see a lot of glimmers of hope and a lot of things that we think are good anecdotes, and some data points that suggest somewhat of a trend. But to actually call that something valid would just be a little too soon.
We certainly feel like we’ve added a lot of speed. We’ve added some more skill. We feel good about what we’ve seen so far.
As you continue to reshape the roster into a Stanley Cup contender, are you looking at adding a defenseman throughout the year, or is that something to be patient with and address later?
Chayka: I think you’re always looking to improve. If there’s someone available that we think is an upgrade, we’re going to be in on that.
Having said that, I like our defense. Maybe I’m the high man on it, so we’ll see how this plays out. I think we’ve got a lot of good veteran defensemen that know how to play and, as a group, could be really strong. I think they’re going to show a certain side of this as things progress.
I like a lot of our defense. Like I said, I think we’ve got a proud group that’s ready to make a push on things.
People also forget we lost Chris Tanev last season, so you’re adding him back to the mix as well. For my money, one of the best, if not the best, defensive defensemen in the game. I had the pleasure of watching Niklas Hjalmarsson in Arizona and what he was able to do for our group, not just on the ice but off the ice as well. I see a lot of that in Chris.
Together with Raddysh, once he gets acclimated and gets his game where we know it can be, we like the progress we’ve made there.
Defense is a team sport. The early results—and again, they’re early—are that we’ve been a better defensive club. If we can do that, I think the combination of our goaltending and forwards would be a good formula. Certainly, again, it’s early days.
Marchenko is a rare combination of size, strength, and mobility, but Knies was your best trade chip. Was there consideration of moving him for a center or defenseman? How did you arrive at a winger-for-winger deal?
Chayka: It’s just the broader goal of always trying to improve the group. Certainly, if you feel there’s a credible top-six centerman or a top-four defenseman who can impact the game and play 20-plus minutes a night, those are always valuable assets to have.
Kirill was part of a larger picture for us. He’s a really unique player. He was a guy that we were very deliberate in targeting in terms of his ability to not only score and create offense, but dictate play, and do it in a way that we think is sustainable, and do it in a way that we think will translate when it matters.
Ultimately, we evaluate a lot of different things with a lot of different players and a lot of different pieces, and felt like it was the right fit, the right time, and the proper transaction to execute.
Make no mistake: When you say, “Doesn’t it make sense to try to get as many good defensemen and centermen as you can get?” that’s certainly a priority for us as well.
When you say “dictate play,” are you considering the Leafs’ difficulty getting through the neutral zone and transitioning up the ice last year?
Chayka: I’m not going to say last year. I think it’s been a trend for a few years, from what I’ve seen.
You can focus on the narratives of, “They’ve got to get bigger and stronger and grittier,” in certain ways. That’s true at certain times, perhaps. But ultimately, you’ve got to be able to dictate play consistently and sustainably if you do want to win the majority of your games.
Kirill does that. He has a history of doing that, and we felt like it made a material difference to our outcomes to have another player like that.
As we were thinking through what the alternatives were, we felt that Kirill was an important piece as we’re trying to take the next step here.
Stolarz played exceptionally well against the Islanders. If he stays healthy, could you reevaluate the split between him and Bobrovsky and see him close the gap in starts?
Chayka: I answered this the other day, too, about the number of starts. We’re less focused on the number of starts, more focused on the amount of rest. We do think there’s a correlation—not just with our goalies, but all goalies—that they perform better when they’re well-rested.
For us, we see three really good goaltenders. Artur below, I’m not sure what more a goalie could do in the American League to showcase that they feel like they’re ready to make that next leap. He was the MVP of the playoffs, and he was about as valuable as he could possibly be, from my shoes.
Anthony was a starter last year. I think he’s got the ability and the skill, and he stops the puck at a starter level. That’s obviously a good weapon to have as you think about depth of goaltending.
Again, we went out and got Sergei because we believe he brings a championship mindset. He’s done it at the highest level and brings a lot to the team and the group.
To your point, it’s about the balancing of all that. Sometimes you have great plans, and they come together, and it works exactly as you see fit. Sometimes guys get on a roll. Sometimes there are injuries.
Our job is going to be to adjust and measure against what we think is a pretty good plan to not only give these guys numbers of starts, but make sure we’re managing workloads a bit—not just in games, but through practices and throughout travel and throughout a season—and put these guys in the best position to be successful and stop the puck.
With McKenna’s talent and smaller frame, what is the ideal opportunity for him to develop within the lineup this year while also helping you win?
Chayka: “Ideal” would be the word that you talk about, but there’s just the reality that Gavin’s a great young player who’s going through a very natural progression of adapting his play and figuring out how to be successful in the National Hockey League. No one’s really going to dictate that but him.
What I’ve seen is he comes to skate and gets acclimated, and all of a sudden, he starts looking good in the skates. Then he ramps up into training camp and, again, finds his way. All of a sudden, he’s doing well in the preseason games, and now to NHL regular-season games.
We all know game one is different than after Christmas, and different than making a push for the playoffs, hopefully. There are all these natural progressions that he’s going to have to go through.
The good news is, I find those guys that do the best are the guys with the best hockey sense. For us, we think he’s special in that regard.
I thought even from game one to game two, he showed great progression and just seemed more comfortable. Reads were a bit crisper. As a result, he was able to do more with the puck and make more plays.
Again, there are going to be ups and downs, and we can appreciate that. What we’re focused on is he’s going to be a really important player for us for a long time, and we’re willing to invest and endure whatever that takes to get him there.
Are you having conversations about how best to protect McKenna? If he struggles defensively, could he move anywhere from the first to the fourth line or take a night off? Is all of that in play?
Chayka: I think everything would be in play. At the same time, I don’t think anyone’s talking about backup plans.
Our main plan is Gavin’s an important player for us, and everything he’s done to date is to show and showcase that. There’s a lot of belief and resolve internally about what he can be and what he can do this year for our team.
Obviously, if there was different information and it felt differently, then we would adjust and adapt as we see. But again, even defensively, coaches are impressed by his recognition and the improvements he’s already made in two NHL games.
We feel like, when he’s at his best, he’s going to be a well-rounded player that impacts the puck on both sides and has some special, unique ability to create offense.
To sit here and say we’re game-planning for anything other than him being successful wouldn’t be accurate. We certainly believe he’s a player that can make an impact for us this year.
With McKenna and Cowan, are you wary of giving young players too much? Are you still cognizant of development, or is it about playing the guys who give you the best chance to win every night?
Chayka: It’s the NHL. You’re always trying to play the guys to give yourselves the best chance to win, no doubt about it. It’s not a development league.
But I do think there are progressions in development as well. Something for our team, as we think about being successful—not only early but late into the season and hopefully into the playoffs—is having depth, having guys that can go up and down, and guys who can play different roles.
One thing I respect about Easton is he went down, he played in the American League, and at times, that probably wasn’t easy. But I think he learned a lot and took the best approach. All of a sudden, he wins the championship, where he was an integral part of that.
Now he’s going through this process of working his way up a lineup and taking on more. I was happy to see him kill some penalties, and you start getting that well-rounded game.
It’s the development within the winning. At times, those things seem mutually exclusive. I think in this instance, and the way we want to try to go about it, you can do both.
The way he’s approached things, his mindset, who he is as a person—I think that’s always a big part of that. Taking good feedback and willing to do whatever it takes to help the team.
I know I’ve talked to him about this: He’s willing to play wherever the coach wants him to go, have success for the team. It’s a pretty rare approach for a young kid.
There are numerous reports that you’re still aggressively making calls and looking for your next move.
Chayka: I’ll leave that to you guys.
