1-13.
It is the only stat that matters now: The Toronto Maple Leafs are 1-13 in series-clinching games in the Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner era. With each passing loss — two more added in this series so far — the stat becomes even more unfathomable and has little parallel in recent NHL history.
The 13th loss was in Game 5, as the Leafs lost 4-0 to the Ottawa Senators at home in Toronto. The game was much closer than the score implies, as two empty-net goals factored in, and the score sat within one goal for the first 45 minutes. But the second number in that score — zero goals for Toronto — is what towers above the wreckage of the game. The Maple Leafs created some opportunities, but not enough, and they couldn’t cash in the chances they created.
On the other hand, Ottawa got a good fortune goal through traffic and cashed in on their only real rush chance of the night while shorthanded. The margins in playoff games are so often razor thin, and Game 5 was no different.
Your storylines for Game 6:
1. Power play troubles. The Maple Leafs haven’t scored a power-play goal in two consecutive games while allowing a short-handed goal in each. Ottawa only went to ~1.5 power plays in Game 5 (one was abbreviated carryover after 4v4 elapsed), and the Leafs killed them off pretty well. Mitch Marner and Steven Lorentz made strong plays to salt away the time on the first PK, and then Chris Tanev heroically boxed out Drake Batherson from collecting a loose puck with an open net to score into. But as good as Toronto’s PK was in Game 5, their power play let them down doubly so.
The first Leaf power play was their best one, even if it lasted only 69 seconds before Matthew Knies was whistled for a slashing penalty. The Leafs held the zone continuously, snapping it around and forcing the Ottawa PK to collapse down right around the net, with space to take point-blank shots at Linus Ullmark. In total, they registered six shots on goal in the 69 seconds. It was a bit of bad luck not to score on that power play, but the problem was that it was all downhill from there for Toronto’s man advantage.
Their second power play created one slot shot for John Tavares, but the actual shot was quite feeble, and despite holding zone time, the Maple Leafs couldn’t create much. In what felt like a message, Craig Berube yanked the top unit off the ice before a full minute had come off the clock, and they never returned, the second unit playing more of the time, to no avail.
The third and final power play was a catastrophe. Coming in the third period with the Leafs trailing 1-0, it was an opportunity to even the score, but instead the Senators helped put the game away by scoring a short-handed goal. Auston Matthews made the crucial turnover, William Nylander mailed in a backcheck to prevent a 2v1 from developing, and Mitch Marner failed to cut off the pass from Adam Gaudette to Dylan Cozens that left Stolarz with little chance. Bad all around.
As we enter Game 6, the Leafs have to figure out a way to get the power play in a groove again, especially if their five-on-five scoring troubles remain (more on that shortly). The process as a whole hasn’t looked terrible when they have all five forwards of the top unit available, but the playoffs are about results more than process. They need to actually bury one to put this series away, and they have to avoid shorthanded goals. Puck management on the power play is critical, especially when a forward is the last man back defending.
2. What about the five-on-five offense? In the regular season, the Leafs finished 20th in five-on-five expected goals for per 60 (via Evolving Hockey), but their superb finishing talent allowed them to score the 10th-most five-on-five goals per 60. Combined with an elite power play, the scoring was good enough.
However, brewing under the surface was a team that got shut out three times in the regular season (once by Ottawa), after the Leafs previously owned the longest streak in the NHL without a shutout against, and a team that scored one goal or less 15 times.
In Game 5, we watched the Maple Leafs play a low-event style and struggle to generate A+ chances at five-on-five even when trailing. The urgency that we saw in Game 4 when the Leafs trailed 3-2 in the third period — which ultimately led to the game-tying goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson — was nowhere to be found.
Maybe we can blame it on nerves — and the Leafs certainly did appear to grip their sticks too tightly at points — but five-on-five offensive generation has been a problem in this series, with the Leafs entering Game 5 as the lowest-ranked team in five-on-five expected goals for per 60 out of the 16 playoff teams (via Evolving Hockey). Some of that is score effects from earlier in the series when the Leafs spent large stretches of Games 1 and 2 leading. At the same time, the team wasn’t able to flip on the switch offensively in Game 5, and as a result, it is now a real question as we look towards Game 6.
Playing low-event hockey of the kind that Craig Berube’s Leafs have played this season can be a dangerous proposition when we think in terms of raw chances and not percentages. If a team wins the expected goals battle 1.5 to 1.0, they won 60% of the expected goals, but in raw terms, they only outplayed their opposition by 0.5 goals. If a team wins the expected goals battle 3.5 to 2.3, they also won 60% of the expected goals, but in raw terms, the team outplayed the opposition by 1.2 goals. Playing low event in all game states gives the better team a smaller advantage in raw chances and can create a pickle if the low percentage chances end up in your net (as they did in Game 5 on the first goal, and in Game 4’s OT winner) rather than in the opposition’s (as happened for the Leafs in Game 1).
At the same time, the Leafs’ shooting talent theoretically should be enough to tip those scales in their favour — i.e., not all expected goals are created equal — if the Leafs don’t beat themselves with their puck management and defensive play. This concept lies at the heart of the Berube philosophy this season.
This brings us to the all-important question of the first goal. If the Leafs can score first in Game 6 (they haven’t scored first since Game 2), their perpetual low-event style may allow them to play in their comfort zone and lock it down. But if Ottawa takes another lead, whether the Maple Leafs manufacture the offensive generation at even strength (or the PP!) to dig out seems up in the air right now.
3. Where is Auston Matthews? Wait, that’s not right. Auston Matthews did create a goal in Game 5. Unfortunately, it was a goal for the Ottawa Senators, on a soft pizza of a pass to the point on the power play that was intercepted, leading to the Cozens short-handed goal. Matthews finished -4 in Game 5 and did not collect a point. He has one single goal in this series, and it was completely the creation of Mitch Marner, who set him up with a magical pass in Game 3 that Linus Ullmark was not ready for. Matthews has not beaten Ullmark clean, and he missed the net entirely on a 2v1 opportunity in Game 5 when he was away with Matthew Knies.
Matthews hasn’t been horrific in this series. He has five points in five games and has generally played solid defense. He hadn’t been on ice for a goal against at even strength until the opening goal in Game 5. But Matthews is paid for greatness, to dominate play and to score goals like his track record says he can. He is not doing this right now.
While discussions over Matthews’ health have permeated all year, dating back to his trip to Germany to receive treatment for an injury, he is still in the lineup. Matthews is still centering Toronto’s top line, and he has not missed time in a while. If he is healthy enough to play, he is healthy enough to be judged fairly.
In this series, he hasn’t been good enough, and he was particularly poor in Game 5. Both Marner and Matthews were lowlights of Game 4, while William Nylander carried immense weight. Nylander was off his game in Game 5, which might have been okay if Marner and Matthews rebounded as they were supposed to. Marner’s own troubles late in series are so well known at this point that Matthews’ back-to-back brutal efforts in possible close-out games in this series perhaps stand out more. Both players need to be better, but Matthews, in particular, has to show up on Thursday night and ideally, shoot a goal into the net to help the team he is now the captain of end the series.
4. Continued lineup tinkering by the Maple Leafs. As the series has continued, we have gotten no closer to a resolution to the lineup questions facing Craig Berube. The third period saw Max Domi jump up to play with William Nylander and John Tavares, a line that did not work and hasn’t worked much throughout the season. Pontus Holmberg has helped them drive play, but he contributes nothing offensively. The best combination with that duo throughout the year has always been Bobby McMann, but Berube has seemed hesitant to go to it, and he may feel the same now with McMann struggling so mightily.
As for the other line, Max Pacioretty has done very little since drawing into the lineup and may well be subbed out for Nick Robertson. The latter wasn’t effective during his stint in the series either, but he is probably a better bet to score goals if he gets an opening. It is difficult to believe a third line of Robertson, Domi, and Holmberg would produce much offense or contribute in any real capacity, but that’s been the story for that line all series, with the exception of Domi’s overtime winner in Game 2.
The top line feels untouchable despite the struggles of Marner and Matthews, and is the fourth line in the same boat at this point? No doubt, the trio of Steven Lorentz, Scott Laughton, and Calle Järnkrok has been a strong identity line for the Leafs, creating cycle shifts and holding the offensive zone even if goals haven’t been coming. The desire to keep them together makes sense.
At the same time, they haven’t found the score sheet since Laughton set up the OEL goal to open the series. Their Game 5 was again strong, but they probably aren’t fully untouchable if Berube thinks the only way to salvage his other bottom-six line is to rejig them both. It will be interesting to monitor the scale of lineup tinkering that Berube undertakes for Game 6.
5. Close out games, again. I will finish this piece the way I started it. Everything I’ve written in this article is a subplot below the one storyline towering above, the storyline everyone is familiar with about this team at this point. Nothing else really matters. As much as we want to talk about five-on-five offense or the power play or the Core Four or the depth scoring or Anthony Stolarz, the issues all circle back to the close-out games problem. This point has never been more clear than against a milquetoast opponent like the Ottawa Senators, a team that doesn’t really present any specific personnel or stylistic challenges for the Leafs. More than ever, the Leafs are their own worst enemy.
The power play’s 0-for-30 run in close-out games sums it up. It comes down to a mental fragility that the Leafs must overcome. Right from the jump in Game 5, you could sense the Leafs were tight and jittery, fanning on pucks and whiffing on simple plays as the team seemed a bit unsure of themselves. No matter how much has changed, all the battle scars and years of experience, three different coaches, four or five different goalies, and countless different support players on defense and in the bottom six, at heart, this Leafs team still looked like the one that failed to hold onto a third period lead in Boston in Game 7 back in 2018. After the John Tavares OT winner in 2023, we thought for a brief moment that the curse had been broken, but the demons haven’t been fully exorcised yet.
In the aftermath of Game 5, we heard the familiar quotes (even if some were from new faces), from Anthony Stolarz tossing out “snakebitten,” to Mitch Marner saying “it’s not supposed to be easy,” to Chris Tanev saying “we’re up 3-2 in the series. I think we’re fine.” None of the talk matters. What matters is getting it done on the ice.
Not in the expected goals or the Corsi battle, but on the scoreboard. Playing a strong 60 minutes in both process and results, one that ends with the Maple Leafs scoring more goals than the Ottawa Senators. Do that and everyone can breathe a bit. Fail to do so, and not a single person will have any faith in this team going into Game 7 back in Toronto. The “Core Four” has to deliver this time, or there may never be another shot for this group as presently constructed.
