It’s fun to watch the Toronto Maple Leafs again.
John Chayka kicked off the season with a blockbuster trade, and the significant roster turnover has created plenty of intrigue. It’s obviously far too early to draw major conclusions, but let’s get into some early thoughts on the Kirill Marchenko trade and the team as a whole.
Early Thoughts on the Marchenko Trade
As always, it will be a while before we can confidently say who won the Kirill Marchenko trade. Marchenko is a better player than Matthew Knies, but the question is how much better, as Marchenko will earn an extra $4.75 million in cap hit when his extension kicks in. It also costs just over $1 million in cap space to bury Miles Wood in the AHL on top of the additional assets the Leafs included (Emil Andrae and a second-rounder), so for this trade to be a win for Toronto, there needs to be a sizable gap between the two headliners in terms of overall impact.
If the Leafs had traded Knies for a center or defenseman, the deal could have been sold as a necessary move to address a positional need. However, since Marchenko is also a winger, this is essentially the Leafs saying, “We think Marchenko is significantly better than Knies.”
It’s not difficult to sell yourself on Marchenko. The 26-year-old is 6’3″, incredibly fast, and has a pretty damn impressive highlight reel of goals. He was the best forward on the Blue Jackets, and it doesn’t take a genius to see how his production could skyrocket if he gets to play with the best version of Auston Matthews. Regardless of which top-six center he spends the most time with, there’s no doubt that he’s an impact player.
Marchenko is more of the known quantity in this trade, while Knies is the younger wildcard who will ultimately determine who wins the deal. If Knies becomes a 70+ point winger who can also drive play, it will be difficult for Marchenko to provide enough incremental value to justify the cost in both trade assets and cap hit. However, there are some significant questions about Knies’ game, and it’s safe to assume the Leafs thought he was a little overvalued around the league and wanted to cash in.
Concerns About Matthew Knies
Marchenko had just one more point than Knies last season, so at first glance, it’s tough to justify the cost. Leafs fans know what Knies is capable of when he’s at his best, as he’s a force to be reckoned with physically, and his skill level is awfully impressive for a player of his size. There’s a real chance that Knies takes another step forward offensively and improves as a play-driver, but it’s now clear that the Leafs were willing to move him multiple times.
So, what did they see? Knies put up 35 points in his rookie season, but I’m going to focus on his two post-breakout seasons, when he put up 58 and 66 points. While his game took a legitimate jump in 2024-25, it’s worth acknowledging that he shot 19.1% and was the third-best player on a loaded line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Despite those strong linemates, he struggled to generate assists at five-on-five, with a primary assist rate that ranked 10th out of 11 Leafs forwards with at least 500 minutes:
| Player | 5v5 A1/60 (2024-25) |
|---|---|
| Mitch Marner | 0.96 |
| Max Domi | 0.92 |
| Auston Matthews | 0.88 |
| John Tavares | 0.85 |
| Scott Laughton | 0.68 |
| William Nylander | 0.64 |
| David Kampf | 0.61 |
| Bobby McMann | 0.44 |
| Steven Lorentz | 0.4 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 0.38 |
| Matthew Knies | 0.33 |
| Nicholas Robertson | 0.32 |
Knies did lead the team in five-on-five goals per minute, and it’s not exactly his fault that Matthews wasn’t shooting the puck like his usual self. But his assist rate was shockingly low given the quality of his linemates. By five-on-five points per minute, Knies’ production was about equal to Michael Bunting’s second season in Toronto and nowhere near Bunting’s first season with the team.
Another concern was expected goals percentage. Matthews finished just shy of 55%, rather than the 60%+ he posted in his best years. It’s tough to parse how much of that was Matthews’ health and how much was Craig Berube’s system, but the Bunting-Matthews-Marner line clearly produced better results than the Knies-Matthews-Marner line.
In a vacuum, Toronto’s top line was still quite good, although maybe not quite elite. However, when you’re adding a future $7.75 million winger to a line with Matthews and Marner, you’re expecting an elite line rather than a good one. Knies graded out fairly well as a play-driver by Evolving Hockey’s RAPM that season, but with Matthews experiencing the worst season of his career, it was difficult to call the team’s top line a successful story.
Last season was a completely different story for Knies. He had no problem generating assists, but both his goal-scoring and play-driving metrics fell significantly. Focusing on five-on-five play, he finished 11th out of 14 Leafs forwards in goals per minute and 13th out of 14 in shots per minute. To put that in perspective, he finished just behind Calle Järnkrok in both metrics:
| Player | 5v5 Shots/60 (2025-26) |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 10.27 |
| Bobby McMann | 8.23 |
| Nicholas Robertson | 7.75 |
| Scott Laughton | 6.44 |
| William Nylander | 6.38 |
| John Tavares | 6.3 |
| Easton Cowan | 5.63 |
| Steven Lorentz | 5.42 |
| Max Domi | 5.07 |
| Matias Maccelli | 4.83 |
| Calle Jarnkrok | 4.5 |
| Dakota Joshua | 4.47 |
| Matthew Knies | 4.4 |
| Nicolas Roy | 3.72 |
You can perhaps blame injuries and Craig Berube for part of it, but he was ultimately healthy enough to play. While this may be a bit of an “appeal to authority,” the Leafs knew Knies’ injury situation better than anyone, and they don’t seem to think there’s a major bounce-back on the horizon.
The team’s results with Knies on the ice were also ugly. The Leafs had a 42.7% share of both actual goals and expected goals during his five-on-five minutes. That’s not just bad — it’s shockingly poor for someone whose primary linemate was Auston Matthews. Again, you can point to injuries and Berube, but those are still shocking results.
So what exactly is Knies? The key question is whether he can be the second-best forward on a top line. He fell short in that role last season, and while the counting stats were fine, he’s simply not as valuable if he needs to play with two high-end players in order to win his minutes.
If injuries were a major factor last season, will he look like his old self in future years, or will this become a recurring theme? If his injury situation wasn’t actually that significant, it’s easy to see why the Leafs might think he’s overvalued by the market.
Maybe Knies will prove to be a legitimate first-line winger who was simply hurt/Berube’d and is about to put everything together. Maybe he’s more of a second-line player whose offensive numbers have been helped by playing with Matthews and an unusually high shooting percentage. The Leafs are betting Marchenko can give them more, and that the difference is worth the price they paid.
Why Marchenko?
The Leafs used to have four legitimate forwards who could truly “drive a line”: Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and Mitch Marner. They had just two last season, as Tavares is no longer in his prime, and Marner is no longer on the team.
Marchenko gives them a third play-driver, and they desperately needed one if they want to become a true contender. If they’re in win-now mode and want to convince Matthews to re-sign, it’s easy to see why they felt they had to take a chance on an upgrade. Perhaps Knies will continue to improve and eventually turn into a true play-driver, but right now, his results don’t show a player whose team is significantly better when he’s on the ice at five-on-five.
Marchenko has looked excellent early on. The Leafs are spending the vast majority of his shifts in the offensive zone, and his right-handed shot is a better fit on their power play. He’s here for the long haul, and he pairs well with their two young left wingers, Gavin McKenna and Easton Cowan.
Even if you’re low on Knies, it’s fair to question whether the Leafs should have used their top trade asset on a winger upgrade. Marchenko needs to be a star to justify the cost, but Chayka has to be happy with what he’s seen so far.
Other Early Season Thoughts
The Lineup
The biggest question for me right now is what the Leafs should do with their forward lines, as the Nylander-Tavares-McKenna trio hasn’t worked. I didn’t think it was a particularly good fit on paper, so maybe I’m quicker to want to move on than most, but they’ve been caved in.
All three players could use a defensive presence and forechecker on their line, and while I reserve the right to change my opinion down the road, I’d rather see Nylander with Matthews and Tavares with Marchenko. I’m confident that Matthews can form a great line with either star winger, but I’d rather give Matthews the better playmaker and Tavares the better forechecker.
McKenna also seems like a better fit with Marchenko than Nylander, as Marchenko is bigger and forechecks better. We’d all love to see McKenna with Matthews at some point, but right now he often looks like a teenager playing against NHL defensemen (because, well, he is). He’s incredibly skilled and will make the most of his chances with the puck, but I think he’s better suited to a sheltered scoring line right now, whether with Tavares or in an offensively focused bottom-six role.
Cowan, meanwhile, is off to an excellent start. His taking a big step forward would be a major development for the Leafs, as they need all the forward depth they can get. He’s looked better than McKenna alongside Tavares and Nylander, and if the Leafs keep that duo together, Cowan provides more forechecking and defensive ability than McKenna. Even if Cowan doesn’t play in the top six, it’s a big deal if he can be the driver of a successful third line.
In general, I prefer having a strong top nine and a bottom three rather than a clear top six and bottom six. While the third line of Cowan, Paul, and Sissons has been excellent to start the season, I’m skeptical that they’ll be good enough offensively in the long run. Ideally, the Leafs add another quality forward at some point and end up with Duhaime, Blueger, and Sissons as their fourth line.
I like the idea of Cowan, Tavares, and Marchenko as a second line, and McKenna, Paul, and Roslovic as a sheltered bottom-six line. There’s plenty of time to experiment, so you could flip Cowan with McKenna or Roslovic and see what works best.
The Leafs don’t need a star to play with Matthews and Nylander, so that’s an easy role to fill down the road if they decide to add another forward. McKenna is incredibly fun to watch, but if his line keeps getting outplayed, I’m perfectly fine with him taking on the role of a skilled bottom-six forward who gets sheltered minutes and feasts on weaker competition while he develops. Ideally, he plays so well that he practically forces you to play him with Matthews, but given his age, expectations should be kept in check for now.
The Defense
Raddysh has settled in after a rough first game, and the Leafs’ blue-line group in general is moving the puck better. More importantly, they don’t seem to have the obvious weak spots they had last year with Benoit and Myers.
That doesn’t mean the group is perfect. The Leafs could certainly use another defenseman, particularly a second-pairing left-shot defenseman for the future. The problem is that there aren’t many of those players available, and the good ones like Simon Edvinsson and Alexander Nikishin won’t be cheap. The Leafs have some cap space to work with after the Marchenko trade, so one potential avenue would be to move Ekman-Larsson for assets and then use those assets as part of a package for a younger (but more expensive) defenseman.
Tanev, McCabe, and OEL are all older, while Rielly probably won’t be here long-term. At some point, the Leafs need to acquire a younger option. A trade seems more like a question of when than if, but it’s looking like a competent defense group for now, and Ben Danford continues to impress with the Marlies.
The Bottom Line
It’s still very early, but I think this is a playoff team if they’re healthy. That’s a pretty significant “if,” though. Matthews, Tanev, and Stolarz all have legitimate health questions, and the defensive core’s age, plus Bobrovsky’s advanced age, adds risk to the outlook.
McKenna is another major wild card, as he’s obviously incredibly talented, but it remains to be seen how quickly he will improve his overall game.
Still, there is a lot more to like about this team than there was a year ago. Marchenko gives them another legitimate play driver, the defense can move the puck a bit, Cowan looks ready to take a notable step forward, and a few intriguing young players make the lineup decisions genuinely interesting.
I’m excited to see how the Leafs’ 2026-27 lineup will evolve.
