In the past two seasons, the Maple Leafs barely possessed the puck.

Last season, they finished last in 5v5 shot-attempt share. The year they won their division, they finished 29th but were buoyed by excellent goaltending.

Over the same period, we can draw a pretty clear parallel between possessing the puck and winning the Cup. The Carolina Hurricanes were the league’s best at it last season and took home rings. In the two preceding seasons, the Florida Panthers won the Cup after finishing second in the category in back-to-back years.

Of course, there are always outliers, such as Vegas in 2023, who finished 22nd in the regular season. Generally speaking, though, championship teams are at least in the top 10, as the three winners before Vegas all were. So, too, were Craig Berube’s Blues after he took over and the team adjusted.

Yes, a team needs other things going for it, such as goaltending and good special teams. But at the end of the day, you need to possess the puck at an elite rate if you want to fancy yourself a contender in this league. If your plan is to get dominated and hope every bounce goes your way, well, that plan looks a lot like the Leafs’ last season.

Amid all the talk about the Matthew Knies–Kirill Marchenko trade, it really boils down to this: one is a very good complementary player and scorer, while the other is an elite line driver. Look at the top line so far with Marchenko and Matthews (and avert your eyes from the second line!):

GM John Chayka affirmed this logic behind the move in an interview with Real Kyper and Bourne:

“You can focus on the narratives of, ‘They’ve got to get bigger and stronger and grittier,’ in certain ways. That’s true at certain times, perhaps. But ultimately, you’ve got to be able to dictate play consistently and sustainably if you do want to win the majority of your games.

“Kirill does that. He has a history of doing that, and we felt like it made a material difference to our outcomes to have another player like that.”

I don’t want to sit here and pick apart Knies’ game — which I still really like — but he hasn’t shown any real ability to drive play. That’s the bottom line here. We can already clearly see Marchenko’s ability to skate through the neutral zone with the puck on his stick, use his skill to drive to the middle, and generate shot volume for himself and his linemates.

This one trade won’t change the team’s entire fortunes. The Leafs finished dead last in puck possession last season and are starting from the ground up. We can see it in the flow of their games so far: They have put together some dominant stretches, but the overall winning recipe still looks foreign to them. They held a lead in all three games to date but haven’t figured out how to play a full 60 minutes of winning hockey built on a sustainable approach.

Given all the changes, it will take time to sort out, but at least they’re prioritizing the right things and focusing on what really wins games sustainably.

Notes

Easton Cowan, Maple Leafs
Photo: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
  • Can’t ask for much more from the Nick Paul line so far. It’s early days, but they are up 25–10 in shot attempts and were the main drivers of the Leafs’ lone win against the Islanders. It’s a good mix of roles: Easton Cowan has done well as the primary puck carrier and playmaker, while Paul and Colton Sissons drive the net, work the walls, and are solid defensively. Since the first game against Montreal, they have received plenty of primary matchups against the Islanders’ and Senators’ top lines. That deployment, alongside how the top line is performing, is working about as well as could reasonably be expected. It’s the second line giving it all back that’s throwing a wrench into things.
  • There’s lots of talk about John Tavares and his early struggles compared to previous seasons. He has two assists in three games so far. Through three games last season? Also two assists, both of which came in the first game against Montreal (one came off a faceoff win; the other was on an empty-netter that made it 5–2). We can all see how he looks so far, and this isn’t to suggest it isn’t concerning. But for all the “he usually starts off hot” talk, he produced pretty much the same thing through three games last season. We’ll see what this looks like after October.
  • The Leafs’ penalty kill technically hasn’t given up a goal yet, as Ottawa scored right after a penalty expired. The unit is working as expected with all the new faces. Sissons, Paul, Teddy Blueger, and Brandon Duhaime make up the top two forward units. Auston Matthews only really appears when one of them is in the box, or when the Leafs want to generate offense. Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev lead it from the back end, while Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Troy Stecher are the second pairing. Darren Raddysh and Morgan Rielly aren’t touching it unless absolutely necessary. The Leafs overhauled this entire unit in the offseason, and it has gotten off to a good start.
  • I like Jim Hiller turning to Marchenko–Matthews–Nylander in key situations. It’s a loaded-up top line that makes more sense than previous iterations because everyone is in their natural wing spot rather than forcing someone to flip to the other side. In four minutes together, they’ve created one primary chance and drawn a penalty. It hasn’t been instant magic, but as the season progresses, you need to be able to put your big dogs together at key points and ask them to turn games. It will take time, but they are getting reps, and we can see the flashes.
  • As discussed in the preseason, the Leafs are playing a lot of 1-2-2 in the neutral zone rather than 1-3-1. In the defensive zone, they have also been playing a decent amount of man-on-man defense. In the offensive zone, they’ve pulled a forward high to make plays (think of Paul’s assist on the Sissons goal). They’re trying to work the soft spot at the top of the offensive zone, with plenty of shooters in the lineup who they can tee up from there.
  • It’s a bit unfortunate for OEL, who led the Leafs’ defense in scoring last season and was legitimately good offensively. To start this season, he’s not touching the power play, is a regular penalty killer, and has been on the ice for just one offensive-zone faceoff alongside Raddysh. Inevitably, injuries will happen, and he’ll get more offensive looks. But it’s a harsh swing, and he’s a good soldier.
  • An interesting note from a Leafs season-ticket holder event last week: Chayka and Mats Sundin discussed how pursuing Sergei Bobrovsky was Sundin’s idea. Paraphrasing here, but Chayka essentially said it didn’t make sense to address the goalies first because the forwards and defense needed more work, and the team already had depth in net with arguably similar talent. Mats basically told him that you can’t replicate having a guy like Bobrovsky. It’s not surprising, as Sundin played on Leafs teams that prioritized veteran goaltending. Eddie Belfour came to town at essentially the same age, in a fairly similar situation, and was a fantastic Leaf.
  • Also noteworthy: There has been plenty of talk about how the partnership would work and how Chayka is technically the boss, but he has said since day one that if Mats doesn’t want to do something, they won’t do it. It’s very early, and they haven’t had a major setback to cause real friction, but they seem to be finding common ground and agreeing on key decisions.

Quotes

Jim Hiller, Toronto Maple Leafs head coach

“No, mostly, at that point, I think we’ll see Willy five versus six at different times, and that game wasn’t one of them.”

– Jim Hiller on whether William Nylander was being sent a message after he didn’t play following a poor trackback that led to an Islanders shorthanded goal.

I thought this situation was handled correctly, and accordingly, it wasn’t blown out of proportion. Nylander stopped skating halfway down the ice and botched the play. The truth is, he shouldn’t have played after that, and he didn’t. The coach actually sat him down—which has not always been the case over the years—and didn’t make a big deal of it to the media.

Hiller didn’t even really answer the question. He simply acknowledged that Nylander would go out in those situations, but not that night. Instances like this have been blown out of proportion over the years because it felt like certain players operated with impunity. We’ll see if it lasts, but it was nice to see, and it should have a positive long-term effect.

“If I can stay at 190, I feel like that’s good. You know, you want to be strong, but you also want to have speed.”

– Easton Cowan on whether he was looking to add weight as part of getting stronger in the offseason.

A number of young Leafs prospects have gained too much weight and hurt their speed over the years. Cowan will naturally add strength as he matures, but he’s right that he’s basically already in the correct weight range. He needs his speed to be effective.

“Maybe I’m the high man on it, so we’ll see how this plays out. I think we’ve got a lot of good veteran defensemen that know how to play and, as a group, could be really strong. I think they’re going to show a certain side of this as things progress.

“I like a lot of our defense. Like I said, I think we’ve got a proud group that’s ready to make a push on things.

“People also forget we lost Chris Tanev last season, so you’re adding him back to the mix as well. For my money, one of the best, if not the best, defensive defensemen in the game. I had the pleasure of watching Niklas Hjalmarsson in Arizona and what he was able to do for our group, not just on the ice but off the ice as well. I see a lot of that in Chris.

“Together with Raddysh, once he gets acclimated and gets his game where we know it can be, we like the progress we’ve made there.

“Defense is a team sport. The early results—and again, they’re early—are that we’ve been a better defensive club. If we can do that, I think the combination of our goaltending and forwards would be a good formula. Certainly, again, it’s early days.”

– John Chayka on the defense unit.

Naturally, Chayka will posture to some degree. He’s obviously not going to say, “I don’t like our defense and am actively looking to change it.” That said, it was an interesting endorsement. He’s right about Tanev, who makes a significant difference at 5v5 and on the penalty kill. Raddysh is a legitimate top-four defenseman as well.

Generally speaking, the team has been solid defensively through its first three games. Since the opener, the defensive mistakes have largely come from the forwards, and the Leafs haven’t scored enough to win games.

Tweets

Ryan Tverberg, Toronto Marlies
Photo: Toronto Marlies

The “Acquired” column really stands out here, as only five of the 29 players were drafted by the Leafs organization. The Leafs drafted 10 players this summer and currently hold six picks for the 2027 draft. It will take time to rebuild the pipeline, but when they have to go to the UFA market to sign a bunch of bottom-six forwards, and their AHL team is full of players you didn’t draft, it’s usually a sign.

Not every drafted player will make the NHL, but they should be able to reach the AHL, raise the organization’s floor, and develop. Ryan Tverberg is a good example: Even if he doesn’t make it to the NHL, he has developed within the organization and helped the Marlies win a championship.

While the Leafs can maneuver their salary-cap space with LTIR, they are currently maxed out at 50 contracts. They are also the only team in the league in that predicament. In fact, no other team has even 49 contracts accounted for. That really hurts their ability to explore every opportunity to improve the roster, particularly through the waiver wire.

I thought this was great from the Leafs. Hopefully, they lean into the villain role for once. The last era to really do that was Mats Sundin’s, and as we all know, he’s now in management.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Photo: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

1.  If the Leafs want to give the McKenna–Tavares–Nylander line another run in their next game at home against Nashville, I think I wouldn’t entirely begrudge it, even if it wouldn’t be my preference. But if they keep playing like this—without a goal together and porous defensively—and think they can succeed on the road against Vegas, Colorado, and Utah, they will be in trouble. Nylander’s goals came on a line change and alongside Cowan.

It’s a line that needs sheltering and isn’t providing any juice for the squeeze. Ultimately, I don’t think it boils down to chemistry or time, either. It’s a player-profile issue: All three are offense-first skill players who struggle defensively, and none will consistently do the proverbial dirty work.

2.  I still think the easiest move is to simply swap Nylander and Sissons. Cowan–Paul–Nylander would be the second line, and McKenna–Tavares–Sissons would be the third. You can legitimately argue that Cowan and Paul have both been among the Leafs’ six best forwards so far.

Cowan and Nylander have real chemistry and complement each other well. Cowan has a high motor that helps facilitate Nylander’s game, and he’s skilled enough to make plays with him. Paul has been skating well and fulfilling his role of going to the net and checking.

Sissons isn’t a particularly ideal linemate for McKenna and Tavares, but he would provide a right shot who can forecheck and do some physical and defensive heavy lifting, hopefully opening up space for McKenna. In a way, McKenna might also benefit from having the puck more away from Nylander, without feeling the need to work off an established star.

With the Leafs on the road, they need confidence to roll out their lines instead of simply playing the matchups.

3.  I think I’d also understand if they elected to keep the power-play units together for now. The late third-period power play against Ottawa was extremely frustrating, but they also scored and hit the bar multiple times afterward. It easily could have been a 2-for-4, or possibly even a 3-for-4, night.

Tavares is the easy choice to pull off in favour of more of a playmaker, as he hasn’t been particularly good on the power play so far. But there’s a lot of talent out there trying to sort out who does what, and they are creating Grade-A chances. It’s not unreasonable to give them some runway.

4.  While the team is showing improvement at 5v5—which was almost inevitable given last season’s performance—I think the early area of focus for improvement is the breakout. The breakouts haven’t been crisp or clean, and at times the wingers and defensemen have hesitated to bump the puck to the wide-open player in the middle.

The Leafs now have players on each line who can skate the puck up through the neutral zone, be it Nylander, Marchenko, or Cowan, but a lot of individual efforts are driving it so far. That’s natural, given all the changes and the fact that we are only a week into the season. It’s about the team finding its rhythm and moving the puck cleanly up ice.

5.  I think I’d look to split the goalie starts as much as possible. While Bobrovsky’s reliability is an asset, and he has generally been solid so far—he was excellent in the third period against Ottawa—I’m not sure he’s actually better than Anthony Stolarz on a nightly basis.

Stolarz’s issue, as everyone knows, is availability. When Joseph Woll was absent at the start of last season, the Leafs leaned on Stolarz. He started 13 of the team’s first 17 games and got hurt. With Bobrovsky in the mix, that number would be closer to eight, which is a big difference in workload.

The reality is that Stolarz has been excellent when he plays, and the Leafs will need him, but they can’t let him run with it. Unless Bobrovsky really heats up, they should probably look to split the starts as much as possible.

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