In the last 15 games, the Maple Leafs have given up nine goals within three and a half minutes of scoring.
We can throw out Leon Draisaitl making it 5-2 in the Leafs’ win over Edmonton, and the goal where Utah made it 5-2, but the other seven came when the game was tied or the Leafs led by one goal, including tonight when Matt Boldy tied it up at 2-2 just after the Leafs appeared to be taking control of the game in the second period.
It’s one of the many maddening bugs of the first quarter of this Maple Leafs season, one I mention off the top both because it’s a glaring stat and because we’re already running out of ways to talk about the same recurring problems with this Leafs team, which is now at a high risk of losing all six games of their homestand in regulation, all but putting their playoff hopes to bed well before American Thanksgiving.
The Leafs played a competitive game against a good Wild team tonight, particularly through the first 40 minutes, but they continue to lack a functioning middle six, have too many underperforming defensemen, and are handing gift after gift to the opposition through unforced errors. They’re now at 3.16 goals against per 60 at five-on-five — only Chicago and Vancouver are worse, and they’re a combined 8-29-2 this season.
The 1-0 Matt Boldy goal came directly off a pizza from Troy Stecher, who had ample time to do literally anything else with it. On the 3-2 goal early in the third period, it must’ve surprised Boldy that the Leafs could have numbers back and still somehow give up a totally free lane to the net from the top of the circle. A couple of five-on-five gifts, plus the PK continuing to regress hard, led to yet another game with four-plus goals against — this time despite a decent goaltending performance from Anthony Stolarz — and the Leafs notching yet another regulation loss.
Post-Game Notes
- First periods have been a big issue for the Leafs during their five-game losing streak — outshot 54-39 and outscored 6-1 — but tonight it was more about finding a way to lose that opening period than playing outright poorly. You can’t go two power plays plus a breakaway apiece for Nylander (who lost the handle) and Matthews (who didn’t trouble the goalie much at all) without scoring a goal. To then concede late in the period in the fashion they did after that was just maddening.
- Regarding why the Leafs frequently concede/struggle soon after scoring: There is naturally (typically) a pushback from the opposition in terms of ramping up the aggressiveness/pressure, and in addition to the obvious inadequacies on the blue line and in net, the Leafs’ wingers are generally weak at alleviating pressure by getting pucks out on the walls. Before Darren Raddysh took the cross-checking penalty to negate the scoring chance — ultimately leading to the 2-2 power play goal for Minnesota — Cowan needed to get the puck out on the halfwall. The Leafs are controlling just 42% of shot attempts when leading, 25th in the league. Hidden within their generally encouraging five-on-five numbers of late is that it seems as though those key windows within close games are rarely going their way, as Anthony Petrielli mentioned on the recent MLHS podcast. Against this recent spate of top opponents, when the other team knows it needs to push, it largely has its way with the Leafs.
- Jim Hiller said the issue with the game-losing 3-2 goal was actually in the neutral zone. I get what he is saying; OEL should absolutely be stepping up against the entry by Boldy, given the situation, and the rush would’ve never happened that way. Still, Hiller saying it “Once it got to that point, it makes it hard,” was confusing because the Leafs still had their numbers below the puck, and it should be a simple read for Nylander to take Boldy. All in all, it’s unsurprising that probably the team’s two biggest underperformers relative to expectations entering the season combined to cost the team a critical goal against tonight.
- Nylander was promoted to the top line from there, and between that and playing defense in a 4F-1D setup, he played 6:43 of the final 12:26 after the Wild went up 4-2, putting him at just under 22 minutes total for the game, leading all Leaf forwards. They were chasing the game and are desperate, but at that point, it’s probably time to send a message and think big picture. His main contribution down the stretch was whiffing on a point shot and turning it over. Nylander is currently pacing for a -32 over 84 games.
- Ryan Tverberg can get some development opportunities/exposure on the Leafs’ PK units, and yet we’re too serious a team for Gavin McKenna to play PP1 right now? Not to mention John Tavares is really struggling there currently. In a game where the Leafs trailed most of the third, McKenna clocking 10:38 is too little. All in all, he played fourth-line minutes at five-on-five and saw about a minute of PP time, spread across the remnants of two-man advantages. These kinds of games aren’t doing enough for him developmentally.
- Accidentally, this season may reach a point—potentially shockingly early—where McKenna’s situation becomes similar to Easton Cowan’s down the stretch of last season. The leash was tight on Cowan for much of the year before any competitive ambitions became a lost cause and there was no longer any risk in the coach turning him loose with the ice time. That opportunity and improved confidence, plus the Calder Cup run, really benefitted Cowan the following season, as we’ve now seen.
- With the Marchenko injury and the Tavares-Nylander struggles, the Leafs are in an especially tough spot with their forward lines, particularly when we consider the calibre of the competition over the last few games and the one upcoming. The Matthews line came out even or better across the board against the league’s best five-on-five line in their matchup minutes against Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek (who left the game in the second period), and Boldy; Boldy and Kaprizov did their damage on the PP/against other lines at five-on-five. The Matthews line had a great night against MacKinnon’s line earlier this week. They also got the better of McDavid and Draisaitl in Edmonton, and the Oilers now come to town seeking revenge on Saturday. You probably can’t split them up for this next game to try to fix the issues beneath them, knowing McDavid-Draisaitl will decide a game in a few shifts if they don’t get the matchup right.
- Nylander and Tavares struggling as they are, plus the inability to credibly elevate any of their bottom-six forwards (including Nick Paul), is just killing the Leafs, when combined with the Marchenko injury. If you had any thought of popping Paul onto 1LW anyway so that you could perhaps loan Cowan to Tavares-Nylander, Colton Sissons is hurt, and they’d have no one to play 3C. You could then think about Nylander with Matthews and Roslovic while Tavares plays with Cowan and McKenna, but who wants to see Nylander against the McDavid line right now at five-on-five? It’s a really tough spot, due to the injuries, a lack of depth options who can credibly elevate onto scoring lines, and the underperformance at five-on-five of two important top-six forwards.
- I thought Anthony Stolarz only had a real fighting chance on one of the goals (3-2); otherwise, he was pretty solid. The big saves on Boldy in the first period to keep it at 1-0, on Kaprizov in the second period to keep it at 1-1, and on the 2v1 for the Wild to keep it 1-1, all set the stage for the Leafs to take their 2-1 lead. The Leafs pretty handily lost the expected goals/high-danger battle despite edging the Wild in shot attempts.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
